IF this is another close election, and I suspect it won't be, I think the most important region in the country might be the Southwest.  I believe the GOP will lose serious ground in the Hispanic vote and be in serious danger of losing NM, NV and CO.  If so, the GOP can win OH and FL and still lose. 

IN, KY, KS and TN aren't in play unless its a Dem landslide and  therefore don't matter.

I consider Florida reasonably GOP and should not be a big part of the Dem strategy. 

Michigan is very important but is both a labor and a black state and does not seem to give either Clinton or Obama an advantage.  Michigan has also been comfortably anti-Bush and is historically more Dem than the national average. 

Missouri is a swing state but also has a large black population. 

PA has gone Dem every election since 92 and has been more Dem than the rest of the country every election since at least 1952 (haven't gone back farther than that yet).  Since it has become more urban and blacker in the last 10 years I don't see it as a deciding state.  If the Dems lost PA they will have lost other states they couldn't afford first.

Of course saying the latin vote is more important than the blue collar vote isn't an argument for Obam per se, just a different way of looking at this.

I do think there is evidence that Obama is stronger among Repubs and Independents which makes a strong argument for him. 

The question is can the GOP win enough Hispanics with thier immigration nonsense or can they keep enough of the base if they abandon it.  There is some chance they are between scylla and charbdys here