Good news on the North Carolina front | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 hidden)
whistling past the graveyard (none / 0)
I expect you to be able to analyze the numbers better than the other participants.

The only congressional districts that Obama is winning contain: (1) major university (2) state capital (3) high black population. He can't win the general election like this. Poor white people don't like him. Period.

Obama hasn't won a significant state since Wisconsin, way back in mid-February. His problem is that there is a shortage of white wine sippers as far as his candidacy is concerned.

by KenTX on 05/01/2008 01:39:57 PM EST

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I ain't whistling past shit (none / 0)

What the hell am i suppose to do?  I voted in my primary and now I am telling everyone I know to make their choice, see who wins and unite behind that person.  Either the party will and the Dems will win or they won't and it will be a very close election.   I know that.

The second point is silly.  First, what you said was Obama only wins the districts that have people in them.  Wow, devastating.

The last point is nonsense.  First, their have been seven primaries since Wisconsin.  Assuming by "significant" states you mean ones Wisconsin size or bigger there have been three.  Texas (which he actually won), Ohio and Pennsylvania.  I guess saying what you said sounds a lot more impressive than Obam lost Ohio, Pennsylvania and the popular vote but not the delegate count in Texas.

Here is another way to say it.  Since 2/9 (Wisconsin), Hillary's "big surge" has netted her (drumroll please....) ONE delegate!  (cue fanfare!!!)

Obama's post Super-Tuesday surge netted him 113 delegates.

 
But its all about Super Delegates, right?  During Hillary's surge? Hillary has grabbed 27, Obama has picked up 86 So the Hillary surge you describe has meant -61 super delegates and +1 pledged for a net total of -60.

Obama's Post-Super Tuesday surge?

22 for Clinton vs. 32 for Obama.  For a net of +10 Supers and +113 pledged for a pickup of +123 for Obama during his surge.

So, yeah, he's really collapsed since Wisconsin. 

by ProfRich on 05/01/2008 02:13:06 PM EST

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I will keep it simple. (none / 0)
I have studied the heck out of this election, and come to the following conclusions:

1. Obama supporters will support Hillary in very large numbers (99%) if she receives the nomination fair and square.

2. If Hillary steals the nomination, she could lose a lot of black votes, especially if McCain chooses Collin Powell as his running mate. (Don't laugh, the McCain people are already studying this option.)

3. If Obama wins the nomination, a relatively large number (10% or more) of Democrats will vote McCain, and a relatively large number of Democrats (10% or more) will simply stay home in November.

4. McCain can cause a commotion by selecting somebody like Collin Powell, Christie Todd Whitman, or Evan Bayh as his running mate.

5. Obama can cause a commotion by selecting Bill Richardson as his running mate. (this would be a smart move)

6. Barring a significant economic downturn, Obama cannot win OH, FL, NM, IA, NV, and maybe even PA.

7. There are numerous signs we might avoid a significant economic downturn. (I know you're thinking gas prices, but just wait until you see what Exxon and Chevron do to gas prices this fall. You think they want eight years of windfall profit taxes?)

by KenTX on 05/01/2008 05:38:57 PM EST

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Point by point (none / 0)

1. True but not going to happen so irrelevant.

2. Hillary stealing the nomination would hurt her I suspect.  Powell cannot be McCain's running mate.  Watch Bush's War and listen to what he says on camera.  He is extremely critical of everything McCain stands for foriegn policy-wise.  He came Austin at least on a speaking tour to explain what was wrong with staying in Iraq.  This would be easy fodder if Powell would even agree to get abused by these people again.  A pipe dream.  Not to mention that whole remember when Colin showed up on our TV and lied to us all and caused the Iraq war thing.  Might come up if he ran.

3. Maybe.  I doubt it.  You are acting like a first time election follower.  None of the candidates are willing to be VP, the other guy in my party is unfit to be president and the hardcore supporters will jump ship instead of voting for the other guy.

Then the primary ends and that was all just jokes.  My God, Ken, this JUST HAPPENED in February after McCain won!!!!!  WAKE UP!!

4. Dealt with Powell. No one gives a shit about Whitman.  Bayh won't help.

5. I think there are very good reasons to pick Richardson.  There are other good options.

6. This is fantasy based on nothing.  Florida is probably red.  Ohio is likely.  And I like the "barring an economic downturn".  Damn, Ken, what is an economic downturn to you?  Pick up a paper, for chrissakes!!!! 

7. Dropping gas prices beginning when?  May?  June? July?  isn't going to turn anything around.  Nice fantasy though. 

 

by ProfRich on 05/01/2008 06:02:10 PM EST

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always a pleasure doing business (none / 0)
“Dropping gas prices beginning when?  May?  June?”
It happens every election year, just like clockwork, because Big Oil executives don’t like Democrats. They don’t enjoy having to testify in front of Democrat run committees.
oil execs

“No one gives a shit about Whitman.” 
Women do. They are sick and tired of riding in the back of the bus since 1789. You’re about to learn this the hard way after Obama is nominated.

“Powell cannot be McCain's running mate.”
I sense fear in your denial. Don’t worry, we won’t run Powell if Obama is nominated, and like you said, it’s already a done deal.  But just remember that the GOP will show some respect to the identity group (blacks or women) who feel insulted after the Denver convention. We're compassionate conservatives.

“Florida is probably red.  Ohio is likely.”
Thanks Rich! You’re very generous. Now look at that electoral map again, and imagine that Richardson is not selected as VP. How do you get to 270? It’s a practical concern ya know? 

“Damn, Ken, what is an economic downturn to you?”
High unemployment and negative GDP. We may not get your recession. I’m sorry.

by KenTX on 05/01/2008 06:44:37 PM EST

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Good news on the North Carolina front | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 hidden)