Good news on the North Carolina front | 16 comments (16 topical, 0 hidden)
It always got to me (none / 0)
how HRC could get away with totally dissing states like North Carolina and Virginia, which to me are much more relevant and say a lot more about the campaign than PA ever did. If Obama can take these kinds of states in November, he will win in a landslide and bring a lot of Dems with him. No one in the MSM is even mentioning this, underestimating Obama again. It's like Cenk says, the HRC campaign and the MSM completely downplay EVERY state that Obama wins, no matter how big.

by mijoh on 04/25/2008 01:12:37 PM EST

She explained this (none / 0)
Those are like Louisiana, "African-America electorates" that don't really count.

by ProfRich on 04/25/2008 01:53:56 PM EST

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NC White Voters (none / 0)
You might be surprised, Rich. NC has always been a purple state, despite Jesse Hems. North Carolinians have a great deal of respect for integrity. They tend to vote for people who are straightforward and non-equivocating and Helms was seen that way. To a certain degree, it doesn't matter all that much what the policy postition is, but whether you can bring it off with authority. The Clintons are VERY unpopular here, especially with whites. If Obama can be extremely clear about his positions and come off with moral integrity when campaigning here, it will be a cake walk for him.

by Verified1 on 04/25/2008 03:30:41 PM EST

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Purple (none / 0)

I have been looking at this pretty close.  I don't know that we can call North Carolina purple.  Here is the NC results with a positive number being Dem, negative Republican.  First number is raw, second is relative to the result of the election (if the GOP won by five, I added five).

2004: (-12.43)  (-9.97)

2000: (-12.83)  (-13.35)

1996: (-4.69)    (-13.21)

1992: (-0.79)    (-6.35)

1988: (-16.26)  (-8.53)

1984: (-24.00)  (-5.78)

1980: (-2.12)    7.62

1976:  11.05   &nbs p; 9.05

1972:  (-40.58)  (-17.43)

1968: (-41.53)   (-27.30)

1968 is when the South flipped to the GOP.  Nixon did this by offering them a deal: you let us have our tax cuts and we will let you keep your racism.

Over this time North Carolina has been the 16th most GOP state, right ahead of Texas.

And if you are wondering about 1976 and 1980, Carter ran both those years and pulled the South significantly to the left. 

by ProfRich on 04/25/2008 04:05:16 PM EST

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Office Hours? (none / 0)
Hey Rich, I think I need a student teacher conference here. Give me a clearer idea please about your numbers - sorry I don't understand what you're trying to say. I assume you are just talking presidential election totals and not looking at senate, house or gubernetorial races, or looking at individual counties' breakdowns, etc.

by Verified1 on 04/28/2008 02:52:37 AM EST

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Right (none / 0)

The first number is raw presidential election margin with negative being a Republican win.

The second is the number you get if you take the margin of the general presidential election and subtract it from the NC result.  This answers the question is the state more or less Dem or GOP than the national average.

I did not include Congressional (much less state and local elections) since we are discussing impact on the presidential election.  If I have time (or if you do) I will look at the other stuff. 

Seems I recall some trial lawyer winning a statewide election for Senator there as a Dem a few years back.

by ProfRich on 04/28/2008 09:24:32 AM EST

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Clarification (none / 0)

Thanks Rich for the clarification. I think you and I are just calling purple differently. NC has a lot of Dem state legislators and frequently elects Dem governors. Take a look at the 2004 election

Except for the crazies on the Piedmont northwest of Charlotte, Tarheels can be said to go both ways. Not at all the hard core Dem haters that outsiders would imagine. Our federal house delegation is not all Repub either.

I don't think Edwards would be re-elected here, mostly because he wasn't a very responsive senator to his constituency. He was widely seen as someone who was using his senatorial seat as a leg up to the presidency, not because he really cared about North Carolinians.

by Verified1 on 04/30/2008 11:51:38 PM EST

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Well then... (none / 0)
Here's hoping the Dems win the Tar Hell State.  Funny thing, I think Texas may trend Dem and you think NC might.  If we are both right they are really fucked.

by ProfRich on 05/01/2008 12:04:21 AM EST

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Jerk off (none / 0)

You remember when all the Republicans were gonna vote for Obama or Hillary rather than McCain?  Then McCain got the nomination?  Its kinda like that.  We shall see.  Lets watch the polls after the first time Hillary gives Barak a big hug on the campaign stump. 

Lets see, with those number McCain is tied with Obama.  That means every time a Hillary voter comes over to Barak Obama gains one and McCain loses one.  And you think this is bad news for Obama? 

Is this your first election, Ken? 

by ProfRich on 05/01/2008 09:30:00 AM EST

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I ain't whistling past shit (none / 0)

What the hell am i suppose to do?  I voted in my primary and now I am telling everyone I know to make their choice, see who wins and unite behind that person.  Either the party will and the Dems will win or they won't and it will be a very close election.   I know that.

The second point is silly.  First, what you said was Obama only wins the districts that have people in them.  Wow, devastating.

The last point is nonsense.  First, their have been seven primaries since Wisconsin.  Assuming by "significant" states you mean ones Wisconsin size or bigger there have been three.  Texas (which he actually won), Ohio and Pennsylvania.  I guess saying what you said sounds a lot more impressive than Obam lost Ohio, Pennsylvania and the popular vote but not the delegate count in Texas.

Here is another way to say it.  Since 2/9 (Wisconsin), Hillary's "big surge" has netted her (drumroll please....) ONE delegate!  (cue fanfare!!!)

Obama's post Super-Tuesday surge netted him 113 delegates.

 
But its all about Super Delegates, right?  During Hillary's surge? Hillary has grabbed 27, Obama has picked up 86 So the Hillary surge you describe has meant -61 super delegates and +1 pledged for a net total of -60.

Obama's Post-Super Tuesday surge?

22 for Clinton vs. 32 for Obama.  For a net of +10 Supers and +113 pledged for a pickup of +123 for Obama during his surge.

So, yeah, he's really collapsed since Wisconsin. 

by ProfRich on 05/01/2008 02:13:06 PM EST

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Point by point (none / 0)

1. True but not going to happen so irrelevant.

2. Hillary stealing the nomination would hurt her I suspect.  Powell cannot be McCain's running mate.  Watch Bush's War and listen to what he says on camera.  He is extremely critical of everything McCain stands for foriegn policy-wise.  He came Austin at least on a speaking tour to explain what was wrong with staying in Iraq.  This would be easy fodder if Powell would even agree to get abused by these people again.  A pipe dream.  Not to mention that whole remember when Colin showed up on our TV and lied to us all and caused the Iraq war thing.  Might come up if he ran.

3. Maybe.  I doubt it.  You are acting like a first time election follower.  None of the candidates are willing to be VP, the other guy in my party is unfit to be president and the hardcore supporters will jump ship instead of voting for the other guy.

Then the primary ends and that was all just jokes.  My God, Ken, this JUST HAPPENED in February after McCain won!!!!!  WAKE UP!!

4. Dealt with Powell. No one gives a shit about Whitman.  Bayh won't help.

5. I think there are very good reasons to pick Richardson.  There are other good options.

6. This is fantasy based on nothing.  Florida is probably red.  Ohio is likely.  And I like the "barring an economic downturn".  Damn, Ken, what is an economic downturn to you?  Pick up a paper, for chrissakes!!!! 

7. Dropping gas prices beginning when?  May?  June? July?  isn't going to turn anything around.  Nice fantasy though. 

 

by ProfRich on 05/01/2008 06:02:10 PM EST

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Good news on the North Carolina front | 16 comments (16 topical, 0 hidden)