Testamonials from WV | 31 comments (31 topical, 0 hidden)
Better map (none / 0)

Since in this country we count people not acres when it comes to elections (except for all those pesky democrat votin' soldiers, we cage them out) here is a cartogram (google it bobo) showing state size based on population.

 Why doesn't TX fall into the Gulf?

by ProfRich on 05/15/2008 12:55:53 AM EST

that is cool (none / 0)
I've never seen this ma...cartogram.  California looks like a big blue ass.  Democratic donkey I mean.

by desertpear on 05/15/2008 01:39:39 AM EST

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Nice map (none / 0)

Ken likes to talk about all the people who are moving to the south and how that is going to guarantee GOP victories for years to come. He actually linked to an article recently that talked about it. As usual, Ken did not read it before linking to it (hint for the next time he links to it and yes he will).

AS an Ex Northern Republican who lived in the south I can guarantee you one thing, Southern Republicans give us the creeps.

I guess Southern Republican politicians are giving southerners the creeps also. How else could Democrats win in conservative districts in LA and MS?

Viva la tax cut 

 

by z1p101 on 05/15/2008 01:45:05 AM EST

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Why haven't we heard the magic word? (none / 0)

How did we see an almost 70-point swing in Mississippi?  50+ swing in LA.  The answer might be extremely simple.  I can't believe nobody has said it.  Ready?

Katrina!

The bitch is back.

Republicans have been spinning this story that Katrina meant there were lot fewer Dems (read black people) on the Gulf Coast and LA was pissed at the state government so now that area would be even redder and Mary Landreaux would lose her Senate seat and gee wasn't that hurricane extra funny now.

After the last two weeks there is some chance they were wrong.  Landreux looks good in polls, by the way.  And now these house elections.
What if the people of LA, MS and presumably AL are actually kinda pissed at the GOP for the response to Katrina?  That might be a problem for the Republicans.  Now it might not be enough to throw the states to Obama (although a 50 point swing would do it) but it might be enough to ding em up pretty bad in the House as well as deliver for Landreaux.  AL and MS both have senate races that appear safe as of now but if this theory holds, look out.  Those are two of the only safe seats in the Senate on the right.

Now I am not calling for big Dem victories on the Gulf but I think Landreaux is ok.  I think the Dems might grab a few "untouchable" house seats here.  I think McCain might have to visit, maybe spend a few bucks.  But if this theory is true, look out!  Could be a massive landslide if the "Solid South" cracks up.

Now there is the issue of those displaced Katrina victims.  Where did they go?  Ken can tell you they are mostly in Texas.  Now McCain needs Texas more than any other state he has a chance in.  Texas has not been polling that great for McCain.  Senator Cornyn-R has a 4 point lead on some bald Mexican guy name Rick Noriega who no one has ever heard of.  Add the pissed off Katrina refugees to the pissed off Mexicans and you get an explosive mix for the Democrats here in the Lone Star State.  Maybe I am wrong.  But maybe Katrina is going to drive votes and, contrary to the GOP fantasies, she ain't driving them to the right. 

by ProfRich on 05/15/2008 02:20:56 AM EST

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God... (none / 0)
works in mysterious ways!

Blog: http://perspectivos.blogspo t.com/

by Nick86 on 05/15/2008 02:39:54 AM EST

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True (none / 0)

But it's not just down there, it's everywhere. People are just tired of these Republican's and their smug "we don't have to listen to you" attitude (see Cheney's "So" statement). These guys are just not getting the message that the American people expect Congressmen to work for them and their wishes.

As far as Katrina goes, the last thing people wanted to hear is their representatives (Democrat or Republican) making excuses for Bush and the rest. They wanted action, not politics but all Republican politicians understand is how to play follow the leader even if he brings them off the edge of a cliff.

I agree with you on McCain. The only reason he has a chance right now is because he has this "Maverick" label and needs to keep it and appease the far right wing at the same time. That is a hard juggling act. Right now he is flip flopping running hard and fast to the right. He is even pissing off the American Legion in the process and if he loses their support, stick a fork in his old wrinkled ass.

by z1p101 on 05/15/2008 12:50:49 PM EST

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Maybe so (none / 0)
But no matter what the words are, the end result is GOP ass kicking so I'm good.  Gas prices is even better because that covers the whole US, not just the Gulf Coast.

by ProfRich on 05/15/2008 01:35:04 PM EST

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I had an interesting conversation with bobo last (none / 0)
night... I know, I know.

Anyway I was thinking the same thing about LA possible going blue.  What group in America has more of a reason to get energized to vote Democratic 08 than New Orleans blacks?  (Other than parents of 4000+ soldiers.)

by richardshort2001 on 05/16/2008 12:05:49 AM EST

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Sense for the senseless (none / 0)

I don't know if its Katrina but something is going on down LA and MS way.  The Hastert seat in IL is awesome but understandable.  I think there was an 8pt swing from 06 to the special.  Nice.  Good news for Dems but that kind of swing happens dozens of times in every election.

Now in LA and MS they were both over 50 point swings and that is a big deal.

I am deranged and obsessive so I have compiled a massive spreadsheet of how every state has voted in every election and then normalized the margin in each state to the overall margin.  What jumps out at you when you do this is how there are long periods of static and then regions explode across party lines (the South jumping in 1968 comes to mind).  These are the great realignments we are talking about.  50+ point swings are extremely rare and don't really happen for one election cylce.  They stay around.  Is it Katrina? Is it gas prices like Ken's suggests? Is it some other variable we are missing?  I dunno.  But anyone who thinks we are gonna redo 2004 and see who can steal/suppress the most vots in Ohio just doesn't get it. 

by ProfRich on 05/16/2008 12:25:20 AM EST

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Testamonials from WV | 31 comments (31 topical, 0 hidden)