First I think you forgot CT which gives the Dems 7 more votes.

That and I think there is either another forgotten state or a math error.  I have that list plus CT as 227 not 215. 

PA is close but ultimately Dem.  Has gone Dem for decades actually. That is 248.  Iowa should go Dem.  That is 255 without any Southwest states.

CO plus either NV or NM gives us a tie.  I think NM is Dem and I suspect NV and CO are too.  A tie is a Dem win, by the way based on state House delegations.  NH would give the Dems an outright win even losing NV or NM.

VA and NC are interesting but by the time the Dems win either the election will have been decided by other closer states.  IN is, in my opinion, ridiculous.  It is one of the most conservative states in the Union.  Obam could win in a landslide and lose IN.

TX is interesting.  I have been saying for a month the GOP might have to spend money here.  (Guess you missed all those posts).  There have been two polls in TX, one had McCain by 1 and the other by 5.  This is curious.  Texas has a HEAVY Hispanic population and is much more urban now than it was in 1996 (when Dole won it by 5).  2000 and 2004 might be skewed a bit by the fact that Bush claimed TX as his home state,  In fact, TX has been much less Republican than the rest of the South in elections without an (alleged) Texan at the top of the ticket.  I know most people think suggesting anything might change is considered insanity in the mainstream narrative but there, I did it.
And lets be clear, I am not calling for a Texas win for Obama, but it might run 3-5 points for McCain and of all the states there is none he needs more than the Lone Star.  If there is a month of polls showing McCain with a sub-5 lead down here, he is going to go broke trying to shore it up.

Anyway, I don't think we will have a 50/50 election so I am not that worked up about this anymore.  I think Obama will win by 4+% which will create a EV win of 100+ easy.