How to win the election without Florida or Ohio | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 hidden)
Texas (none / 0)
You are right I forgot CT, and that brings things up to 222 not 227. Texas is in play this year, you are right and although it may (it feasibly could) not go this year for the Democrats, the state may be trending towards the Democrats in the future. There are lots of reasons for that, including the increasing proportion of Latinos, the urbanization, and the immigration of liberals from the Northeast into Texas due to higher economic growth. If Texas, California, and New York are in the Democrats corner then Republican hegemony is OVER. If Obama does manage to win Texas, I would argue that this election would be a major realignment election. The end of the Reagan consensus, finally, and a new era of Democratic politics.

Blog: http://perspectivos.blogspo t.com/

by Nick86 on 05/07/2008 01:15:19 PM EST

[ Parent ]
If a Democrat wins Texas... (none / 0)
I will look for vacation homes in Hell, because the weather will be acceptable and the beach there is nice this time of year!

I suppose I'll have to move my secret bunker location out of Texas if the Dems take over - Utah, here I come!!!!

You are delusional if you think that Texas will go blue this year - maybe later, but not now...

:)

by bobo1 on 05/07/2008 01:20:38 PM EST

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How far will you go? (none / 0)

I agree the GOP will win Texas in a 50/50 election.  Probably in a 52/48.  But how much will you gaurauntee the win by?  10%, 20%.

What will the closest one week poll average in TX between the conventions and elections be?

My argument is not the GOP will lose TX but I think there is some chance they might have to spend money here.  That will kill them. 

by ProfRich on 05/07/2008 01:49:48 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Two answers (none / 0)

1) 1976

2) the people moving here are Republicans from California

I do think it is interesting that Texas has been rabidly GOP when Bush runs but less so for other candidates.

Margins of victory for Texas

Cloumns: first is actual margin, second is margin minus national margin.

2004- 22.86      20.40

2000- 21.32      21.84

1996- 4.93        13.45

1992- 3.48         9.04

1988- 12.60       4.87

1984- 27.50       9.28

1980- 13.86       4.12

 

by ProfRich on 05/07/2008 02:23:06 PM EST

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How to win the election without Florida or Ohio | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 hidden)