thanks for pointing out fivethirtyeight.com, it is by far the best electoral vote tracking site. One giant meta analysis of all the most recent polls, taking into account the date of the polls, the reliability of the posters and random chance. They even run 10,000 simulatated elections based on things like state demographics, religious affilitiation, income and education, ect.
And the site is updated everyday for the most part.
From now on I will post an ev update on the TYT forum once a week, on Friday, to let the good people here know what's going on.
I will only use fivethirtyeight.com as my source, as I am a fan of statistics and their method is by far the best. Makes every other EV tracking site look downright primitive.
I will be glad to be able to cast aside my own spreadsheet which was starting to take too much time to maintain.
As to the results as of 5/10, well, Obama just barely loses to Mac 267.2-270.8 while Clinton loses 256.9-281.1.
In terms of popular vote: Obama loses 49.8-50.2
Clinton loses 49.5-50.5.
So the conclusion is Obama is more electable, just barely losing. As long as we end this primary soon, (the tsunami of superdelegates going to Obama will assure that) then we can put the beat down on Mac and get those popular vote numbers swinging the other way.
I will track both the % ev and % pop vote on excel day to day to see how the trend is headed. I will also include these in my weekly updates.
Till next Friday night, have a healthy and happy week.
by
adamg on
05/11/2008 12:54:47 AM EST
