The price of Oil is not high. This is not a supply issue with regard to the supply of oil. “Drill Now” campaign is essentially full of shot. I’m not opposed to drilling more but to think that oil supply is the root of the problem is just a distraction.

 Every commodity is going up and they are going up together: wheat, rice, silver, gold, crude oil, etc. Every one of them.

 You could double the supply of oil or cut in in half and eventually it would level out again. In the current situation this is not happening.

 So this is a supply issue, but it's not a issue of supply of crude oil....it's the supply of U.S. dollars that is out of control (We keep creating them.)

 Helicopter Bernake has the interest rates pegged to low. I'm not an economist, but I've taken some intermediate demands side economics courses so I know the ruse. If inflation is rising you must fight back. Bernake is not fighting back.

 

Why is he not fighting back? Hell if I know. My theory would be something to the extend that there are so many banks on the verge of collapse due to the fractional reserve banking scam along with these mortgage companies that are on the verge of collapse that Bernake is actually scared to raise rates.

 

Regardless, evil liberals (Bush, McCain, and the Democrats) will seize your property through taxes and if they can’t get your savings that way they will take it via devaluing your currency all the while promising new and more and expanded entitlements to you that they don’t have the faintest chance in hell of being able to follow up on even if they manage to turn the next generation into slaves of the state.

 

The bottom line is the dollar is crap. Protect yourself and whatever assets you have from it. That’s what Warren Buffet is doing right now hedging against the dollar. Foreign stocks, commodities and futures markets against the dollar. The current system will always punish those who have faith in the system or even remotely believe that the government is capable of acting fairly. For the government to act fairly, we would have had to have had a republic and we haven’t had that in years. Now we have a Democracy that naturally swallows up anything that is prosperous. Some conservatives who still have faith in the system think that their party will protect them from the corruption of the left, but they are sadly mistaken.

 

What do you want to bet that bank-run Shuma, Kennedy, Dodd and the rest of the Communist class in Washington have also taking out big wagers against the dollar over the past year all the while voting to devalue it further?

 

So don’t depend on the government to protect your assets as they continue to debase the currency. They are the ones that will be destroying the assets not protecting them. There is plenty of investment opportunity out there right now…none of it in the sess-pool the liberals have wrought on us here in the states (and when I say liberals I’m talking about the Republicans too since they are barely better than the Dems. The R’s just slow the destruction down.)

by acroso on 07/15/2008 06:53:44 AM EST

"The price of Oil is not high. This is not a supply issue with regard to the supply of oil. “Drill Now” campaign is essentially full of shot. I’m not opposed to drilling more but to think that oil supply is the root of the problem is just a distraction."

You couldn't possibly be more wrong.  Oil is precisely the issue.  While it's true that there is no immediate supply problem everyone knows that any small interruption is going to kick the stock markets hard in the ass.  That's why they are buying commodities instead of stocks.  That's why the price of oil spikes at the slightest hint that supplies will get shorter.  This is the new model for oil futures so get used to it.

This is just the beginning.  The supply will tighten up and tighten up.  Small glitches in supply will become economic events.  If demand doesn't fall off due to the high prices we will begin to enter a period of true shortages.  Watch the airlines.  They are the canaries in the coal mine because of the nature of their business.  They will begin to fail one by one.  There will be a larger and larger number of businesses reporting lower profits or downright losses as their cost of production rises and rises with the price of energy.  The internet model of business will suffer as UPS and Fedex and the Postal service sag under the weight of rising fuel costs.   The stock markets are going to slip and slip and slip.  One big event like a bad hurricane in the Gulf or a military event with Iran and they are going to tumble hard, not like the gentle stuff of the past several weeks.

The credit and mortgage crisis will be greatly aggravated by the rising cost of everything.  Mortgages that were formerly sound will start to fold up.  It will no longer be a subprime loan crisis but a general loan crisis as consumers find themselves throttled beyond their ability to keep up and start to walk away from debt that was seen as reasonable in better times. 

The time to have done something real would have been during the last decade of cheap fuel prices.  The action would have been to make a national effort to move to more efficient modes of transportation, like rail, smaller and fewer automobiles, and to enhance and encourage every single alternative source of energy.  The administration chose instead to encourage waste and inefficiency among the public while using military power to sieze control of new supply sources.  The Democrats have preached the gospel of alternative fuels and conservation but have not walked the walk.  The die is now cast.  Our economic future will be set long before any domestic production can be ramped up.  Domestic production would have to double to have a real and lasting effect on prices and that is a pipe dream.   It ain't gonna happen.  They don't even know if there are substantial reserves in these offshore areas they are screaming about. 

Cheney said early in his presidency that conservation was not the American way.  We're now going to pay for that short sighted stupidity.  The stupid bastard still has no real energy plan besides attacking the Middle East and drilling frantically in offshore waters.   The new American way is upon us.  It consists of spiraling energy costs and forced downgrading of our standards of transportation.  The infrastructure changes may well prove to be beyond our financial ability now.  Republicans will find that in circumstances like this the national debt does in fact matter, as people lose faith and confidence in our ability to repay and begin to dump the dollar with ever increasing urgency.

Each of these things has been foretold over the last few years ad-nauseum.  They didn't want to listen, didn't want to act.  Now we pay.

by bfaul on 07/15/2008 12:18:45 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Then why is Gold going up in proportion with oil? Goil n

In fact all commodities are going up together.

Gas isn't going up in the UK like it is here because several years ago the Pound and the Dollar were trading on equal footing and now the Pound is double the dollar in value.

I think it's the supply of dollars that is increasing. 

 

Here's an interesting graph for you.

 pic

 

(It’s a candlestick chart. The bars are the price of oil in oz Au. The blue and red lines are 50 and 200 day moving averages. Change periods to weekly for a longer term view.)

 

 

 

So Gold (a commodity) is running right up with gold...along with most of the other commodities. If Bernake does not start fighting inflation, comodities will continue their upward run. 

by acroso on 07/15/2008 02:41:49 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Oil is kind of a super commodity.   It directly affects the prices of other commodities.  As for gold, people buy it for the same reason kids go home to mamma, for security.  It's considered a stopgap against inflation, so it stands to reason that gold will go up when inflation does.  Rising oil prices will cause inflation to go up and that will push gold up as well. 

The price of oil "tumbled" today to "only" $138.50. I'll bet you it won't matter, it won't stay down (if oil could be said to be "down" at 138 in the most meaningful sense of the word).  It will be up above 145 again by the end of the week (or by tomorrow evening).  It may even surprise me and  stay below 140 for a few days.  In the end though it won't matter, it will keep moving up.   I hope I'm wrong, I wish I was, but I don't think so, I think we're headed to $200/barrel territory.

by bfaul on 07/15/2008 04:27:56 PM EST

[ Parent ]

But not really. All currencies are based on commodities. You have to ask yourself how do you protect yourself against the supply of dollars increasing...or even how are investors protecting themselves.

 The answer is to invest in a different currency. Commodities are a form of currency (directly such as GOLD or silver or wheat.) They keep their value when the dollar is destroyed (mostly.) The other choice would be foreign investments (which have been doing well lately if you invest right.)

 The third choice would be the futures market which is what Buffet as been doing with all his money (hedged against the dollar.)

 So commodities are up broad spectrum this year all against the dollar. Investors think there is a bubble (and who knows maybe there is but I don't think so) but if you make the assumption that Bernake has the interest rates pegged artificially low (a good assumption in my opinion) when it's possible that he should have it set at 10% or higher, then the supply of dollars is going to keep on coming in, and commodities will keep rising.

 IMHO

by acroso on 07/16/2008 04:43:28 AM EST

[ Parent ]