The racist vote won't turn out.  They're not motivated enough.  In fact, the KKK wants Obama to win, because they think it will increase their enrollment.  If you haven't forgotten, Evan Bayh is a Democrat.  Obama is carrying the WHOLE state right now, and he has insanely organized teams in the the largest cities in the state.  The definition of "likely" voter has nothing to do with whether they've voted before, it's "how motivated are they to vote?"  All of the Hoosiers that weren't motivated to vote democrat in the Kerry/Gore election, have lost their jobs/homes under the bush they put into office.  They're not that stupid.
Seriously, if there are Obama signs in Elwood, Indiana, then Obama has already won.  Traditionally, if you are black in Indiana, you stay in 5 cities:Bloomington, Gary, Fort Wayne, Lafayette, or Indianapolis.  These are basically the only "black friendly" cities in this state.  People won't shoot you, but they will treat you like a second class citizen if you go to any other city.  Black parents literally warn their kids about not stopping in Martinsville.  Now, what' I'm trying to tell you that in a state that went about 48 to 52 in the Kerry election, getting 1-2 percent in Elwood, Indiana will make ALL the difference in this state.  The fact that Obama took the lead at all in Indiana means that it's in play, but the fact that i've seen the ground game of Obama here/the ad campaign vs. the non-existent ground campaign of mccain you would understand that Obama is going to win.  You see, Hillary ran an AWESOME ground game in Indiana.  She was matching Obama flyer for flyer.  The election here was hillary by 2.  You see my point yet???

Chris

by chrisandyasemin on 09/19/2008 12:02:04 AM EST

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