Cenk is wrong on the policy and the politics of this crisis.

First the policy:

My understanding of the situation is this:  We have a bunch of debt out there owned by a bunch of financial institutions.  It turns out that a lot of the people who borrowed it can't pay it back.  This occurred both because of lax borrowing rules and partly because of the housing crisis and falling home prices.  People aren't sure what this debt is now worth.  Basically it has fallen in price to so much that it isn't worth anything, and nobody can get rid of it.  So it is sitting out there and people can't trade it.  The government's plan is to buy up these "toxic assets" from everybody instead of rescuing one bank at a time.  Cenk is correct that Paulson is saying this could cost up to a trillion dollars. 

But what are the alternatives?  The bailout of AIG alone cost $85 billion.  How many more institutions would we have to bail out if we didn't get right to the heart of the problem?  Just 12 more bail-outs and we'd be spending the same amount anyone playing defense instead of offense.  This doesn't even count the amount of money the Fed has been shoving into the system around the last 72 hours or so--at least $100 billion. 

What we can't do it let more and more banks fail.  That is going to eventually result in a run on the banks and a total financial collapse similar to the Great Depression.

Also, on the policy side, I wanted to take note of Cenk's characterization of Bernanke as a part of the Bush administration.  Ben Bernanke is not a partisan Republican.  He is an accomplished and impressive academic economist.  Do you know what subject he studied throughout his career?  He studied financial crisis.  He wrote journal articles about the mistakes made during the Great Depression.  This is a guy who knows what he is doing probably better than any other person in the world right now. He's not going to play defense any longer.  He is going right at the heart of the problem, and the positive, almost jubulant reaction from Wall Street and markets around the world is a good thing.  It means they believe this will work.  It means they are no longer thinking everything is going to collapse. 

Finally, do the bankers get off scott-free under this plan?  No.  The US government is going to be buying these "toxic assets" from them at much lower prices than they were worth before this crisis.  And remember, not everybody is going to default on these loans and mortgages.  We will be the owners of this debt and collecting what we can, and eventually we will sell this debt back to the financial sector--probably at a very high profit after everybody has calmed down, and knows how to value these assets.

The politics:

Cenk's plan is for Obama to sound like a raving manic right now:  He should be an angry, fist pounding populist.  Instead Obama talking about substance, and looking like a leader.  People like Cenk don't need to understand what he is saying the the stump.  Obama just needs to look like he knows what he is saying. 

by publius on 09/19/2008 07:13:12 PM EST

Just another quick point about the politics.  McCain came out today and basically said the Fed was overstepping its bounds and should stop bailing out trouble banks.  My advice would be for Obama to come out and say he supports what the Fed is doing and thinks it is a good idea to avoid complete economic disaster.  What is McCain's solution?  Do nothing?  Don't even improve regulation?

This is the opposite of Cenk's advice to Obama, but it is a much more responsible position.  All of congress is going to vote for the bailout anyway...I would bet a lot of money that even McCain will.  That should be portrayed as a flip-flop.  

by publius on 09/19/2008 07:28:39 PM EST

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You wrote: "Cenk's plan is for Obama to sound like a raving manic right now:  He should be an angry, fist pounding populist.  Instead Obama talking about substance, and looking like a leader.  People like Cenk don't need to understand what he is saying the the stump.  Obama just needs to look like he knows what he is saying. 

I agree with *part* of what you wrote. These speeches are pretty much irrelevant at this point for people like Cenk and people like you and people like me (read: informed voters).

They are only relevant in so far as they impact low-info voters (a sadly astounding number of Americans). Obama "talking about substance" will have little if any impact on these people. If it did, Bush never would have won (ok, he didn't win the first time but close enough).

Does he need to look like a leader? Yes, on that you are absolutely right. Does he need to *sound* like he knows what he's doing? Yes, of course.

I think it's a huge mistake to assume that most voters appreciate the same level of substance and nuance as we do. It's that kind of thinking that has cost us many, many elections.

PS---I'm not saying Obama is doomed to fail or that the bailout was avoidable. I'm just directing these comments specifically to the excerpt I posted above.

by Tom Hanc on 09/19/2008 09:14:24 PM EST

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I was trying to write the previous comment quickly while simultaneously listening to the show, as evidenced by the number of typos.  So let me try to clarify what I meant in that section. 

"People like Cenk" is meant to refer to people who have a cursory knowledge of financial markets, and the current situation; believe me, although I have a masters in Economics I'm not far removed.  At the beginning of the show today Cenk was railing against this bailout, saying Wall Street was getting off easy, taxpayers were getting screwed, and Bernanke and Paulson were just trying to scare Democratic leaders into accepting this legislation.  I don't think Cenk actually believes this.  I think if he were actually a US Senator or a political strategist for Obama he'd be advising that we implement this bailout hoping to avoid the Great Depression II, and at the same time making sure that strong regulatory legislation is passed as well. 

I think this move by the Fed is brilliant, and they are probably saving us right now from a collapse similar to the collapses that lead to the Great Depression.  Their alternative course of action seems to have been bailing out individual institutions one by one as they go under in the coming weeks.

My point about Obama is that it doesn't matter that he lost the audience in the room, or the one on TV.  It doesn't matter that he lost me.  You're right that they don't care specifically about the substance.  What the audience understands is that Obama can talk well about this stuff, and he seems to have a plan. Everyone, even low information voters, can understand that. 

One of the best interviews from the Democratic convention was Cenk's conversation will Bill Burton, Obama's communications director.  Cenk was making his point about the "politics of strength"--about not caving on issues like off-shore drilling because of the message it sends to voters.  Burton disagreed.  He believes that voters need to see the kind of president Obama will be. 

I think this is the philosophy we are saw from the Obama camp in that speech.   The speech Cenk was mocking was Obama showing the country the kind of president he will be.  The speech Cenk was mocking was the kind of speech I pray to see in the future with a real presidential seal on a podium in front of the man that, to me, symbolizes a greater America. 

And as Cenk admitted, the campaign still seems to be playing hardball with McCain (calling him "panicked").  ; Not every speech has to be a hard-hitting and partisan. 

by publius on 09/20/2008 04:09:41 AM EST

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Someone made an interesting comment at Democratic Underground regarding the bailout:

"Think about it. We are basically in the same mess as we were in 1931. And for much the same reasons: Corporate Greed.

So we are about to elect Obama who has the potential to be our generations FDR.

And if there's anything we need right now it's another New Deal

But this time the crooks turned the tables on us pre-emptively.

They come up with this bailout to:

This time instead of bailing out the people with WPA and other public works programs and restructuring and regulations to prevent the abuses again.

If we do this bailout there will be no money left for Obama's promises.

No Money for Green Jobs and the like.

This time we spend even more money BAILING OUT THE CROOKS!

And putting us in hock to them for generations.

They are heading our New New Deal off at the pass".

by Tom Hanc on 09/20/2008 11:47:06 AM EST

[ Parent ]

We're talking about letting hundreds, maybe thousands of institutions fail.  We're talking about millions, maybe hundreds of millions, of Americans losing their savings.  We're talking about people lining up outside banks trying to get their money out, but there is no money.  We're talking about nobody getting a new mortgage or a car loan for years even for the few who could afford such luxuries and houses and cars.  GDP falling by 30 percent, Unemployment rising to 25 percent. 

That's not the situation we want Obama to preside over.  Obama wouldn't be FDR.  Bush would be Coolidge, and Obama would be Hoover.  It's not good for anybody to let our financial system crumble; that's why we can't let it fail. 

We don't need a depression to get progressive policies implemented.  We are on the crusp of doing that right now.  What will help us more than anything is a healthy economy.  

by publius on 09/20/2008 01:02:02 PM EST

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right now.

Watch the Kevin Phillips interview with Bill Moyers that was posted in the forum, it's very sobering and fair.

by Tom Hanc on 09/20/2008 01:15:11 PM EST

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Publius, there is a huge difference between the kinds of speeches I want to see Obama giving when he is president and the kinds of speeches I want to see him giving now.

If he had given that same exact speech as president, I would have had a completely different reaction. There is validity to the point that he has done a good job of appearing "presidential" through this crisis. And he did a great job of calling McCain "panicked." That's perfect. But overall, the person who best captures the outrage of the average guy over this, I think will come out way ahead. That is not what a president necessarily does but that is what a candidate should do.

I have a lot more to say abou this on Monday, of course. But I found this discussion on here very informative.

By the way, I posted this on Daily Kos, Huffington Post and here. And this was by far the smartest conversation about it.

by Cenk on 09/20/2008 09:07:37 PM EST

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