Unfortunately, that is all too likely a scenario.

But I don't think it will work as planned this time. I think that the world has changed fundamentally, in ways to which those in DC are still oblivious.

There are odd events working in the Middle East, hidden from public view. I don't pretend to know what is going on, but the signs are there to be seen, like the swirl in the water when a really big fish moves suddenly, just under the surface. You can't see the fish itself, but its presence is indisputable.

One example: I do not believe that the death of the head of al-Azhar was of natural causes. The timing and circumstances are too suspicious, and too ripely opportune for assassination.

There are a number of controversies all coming to a head right now. Iran and its nuclear program, the death of Sheikh Mohammed Sayed Tantawi that I just mentioned, the Israeli closure of the Haram al-Sharif or Temple Mount, settlement issues in Jerusalem, water issues in Jerusalem, the Goldstone report, and now this alleged spat with the USA.

Of these issues, only the Goldstone report is new, but never before have they all peaked at once.

Ah, for another T.E. Lawrence...

"All men dream - but not equally. Those who dream by night in the dusty recesses of their minds wake to find that it was vanity. But the dreamers of the day are dangerous men - for they may act their dream with open eyes, to make it possible. This I did."

History's sad footnote: First the British provided the Arabs with Lawrence, to lead and inspire them in their brilliant war of self-liberation from the Turks. Then as soon as the Arabs were free, the British turned around and sold them out to the French.

by RedPossum on 03/15/2010 12:52:51 PM EST

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You can't know what all of this means, but can you offer a couple of educated theories?

by Milltycoon on 03/15/2010 06:07:30 PM EST

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You have some very public statements telling Israel not to attack Iran.  These were made by Adm Mullen, Sec Gates and others.  This lays the ground work for the admin to say they did not support it.  Then you create a very public spat which has the illusion that Israel and the US are not on the same page.

Anyone that has been breathing in Israel during the past two years would know that settlements are very sensitive to the whole peace discussion.  Only someone with a brain the size of a mouse would begin to think that announcing settlements during the visit by the VP of the US would not create a verbal jousting.

VP Biden pretended to be upset, yet his speech at the Tel Aviv Univ afterward was more of a love fest.  Enter Sec Clinton hurling bombast at Israel as if Israel was trying to sabotage the talks and then you have Netanyahu finally acting as if he just got religion.

Notice that the US has finally begun to put the Taliban on the run, Iraq is stabilized.  This frees up troops to respond to any Iranian aggression without seeming to put at risk US operations there.  Remember Iraq is northwest of Iran and Afghanistan is southeast with Qatar to the west.  The US virtually has Iran surrounded.

If the Israelis want to attack Iran, they must do so before US troops leave the region or Iran will be able to quickly exact revenge on the west for their complicity.  US troops are to begin withdrawing July 1st.  That gives Israel a 75 day window to pull it off.  Further the US has announced that they will draw down troops in Afghanistan in 2011, a second deadline.

Imagine the response in the US if oil were cutoff temporarily because of a conflict.  Prices would rise above $150/barrel once again.  Interest rates would go up 2% and Obama would be come a crisis President helping the democrats in the upcoming election.

A theory, eventually we will go to war with Iran.  That's why we built all those bases over there.  If we cannot get regime change, then we will find a pretext to attack.  WMD's?

Don't waste your vote, vote Green or Independent in the next election.

by mcamelyne on 03/15/2010 08:21:55 PM EST

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Are often repeated by their children.
When parents hit their children, the children are more likely to hit theirs.
When American slaves were freed and settled in Liberia, they started to become slave owners themselves.
I don't claim that this has anything to do with the psyche of the Israeli people, but...

If any other country would behave like they do the vocabulary to criticize them would be quite obvious and nobody would be able to call Godwin.

I think currently they are a little drunk with power and feel invincible. They don't even bother if they hurt their relations with their allies as the killing of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh and the reactions to that from Germany
 and Britain show. Right now Israel is a real loose cannon. In my opinion they pose much more danger than Iran, because Iran knows its weakness and will only attack as a last resort, when they know that they have nothing left to lose. Israel on the other hand behaves like a schoolyard bully and is much more interested in violence than negotiations. They provoke, so they get an excuse to hit back. How can this critique be antisemitic, when Jews are supposed to act on the premise an "eye for an eye" and not "a bunch of dead bodies for an eye"? It would be antisemitic, if they were criticized for "behaving like Jews" which they are obviously not.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 03/16/2010 06:48:07 AM EST

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