Good assessment of the situation. In my opinion the failure of instituting a single payer or public option was the nail in the coffin on this bill.

I just had a recent debate in a forum regarding making the health care industry non-profit, or at least some form of that. Through out that debate there was no way to refute the points that it would provide a superior health care system for all those involved. That's why we cannot come anywhere near that.

So to come back to your point the "progressives" WILL run right, but it won't be because of voters. It'll be because of the profit motive in the industry.  I'm not personally an all or nothing guy, so I understand how some people would like to believe this is a good step. So to play devil's advocate here on your prediction let me ask a question. Because of the subsidies there are going to be a large portion of americans who will end up paying less overall, why wouldn't that play a factor in the public perception of the bill and grant more public support to pass something stronger in the near future?

"DO NOT PURSUE LU BU" - LifeEnder