ihavenobias' post is a very sound, sensible prediction - but it is a prediction, and a political prediction.  Those can be notoriously wrong.  I hope it's wrong in this case.

If the prediction is correct, then in the next round (Round #2 we'll call it) the reform to the reform will move toward less government intervention and more freedom for health insurance companies and other medical industry companies.  According to the liberal prediction, those changes will make the situation even MORE DISASTROUS than it is now and will be after Round #1.   In that case, Round #3 will swing back to national single payer and all of our dreams will be met.

I am confused as to how this is going to work. So let's say you are an individual and you go to apply for health insurance, and the form asks you for your current health. As it turns out, you have cancer and three other diseases, which you write down on the form.  After all, they still have to cover you. No exclusions due to pre-existing conditions.  What the hell is the insurance company going to do? Let me assure you (time for my prediction) that theinsurance company is not going to pay your medical bills for the cancer and three other diseases you have, unless they set your premium at something like $15,000 per month.  I just don't know how this is going to work.

David  

by yturks on 03/17/2010 10:42:19 PM EST

[ Parent ]

So far there have still been very few articles in the MSM describing exactly how the new healthcare system would work and what exactly it does.  From what I'm able to piece together your cancer patient example would be handled the following way:

Cancer pateint A buys insurance from company B.  They cannot be denied coverage and cannot be charged extra for their pre-existing condition.  Company B's aggregate risk goes up and thus their cost go up. 

This cost increase is dealt with in 2 ways.  First the mandate within the bill increases the number of people in the insurance pool, spreading the risk over more people paying premiums.  The second way is there is a mechanism for risk adjustment (I don't think this is the right term, but I forget what it is).  Basically it works sort of like the luxury tax in baseball.  All insurance companies pay into a risk pool and those funds are redistributed based upon the risk profile of the different individual companies.  Thus companies that have mostly low risk patients pay more into the system than they get back.  Companies with more high risk individuals will get more money back than they pay in.  It is supposed to be a way to remove or at least decrease the incentive for insurance companies to deny care to unhealthy individuals.  

by alphasigmookie on 03/18/2010 11:04:51 AM EST

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The fact that Dave doesn't understand why mandates are in the bill infuriates me. 

We want universal health insurance coverage in the United States. 

To get there we need to reform the insurance industry. 

Let's outlaw pre-existing conditions and rescission. 

Fine, but if you do that wouldn't people just wait until they are sick to buy insurance? 

Yes, so there must be an individual mandate. 

Is that fair to require people to purchase insurance?  What if they can't afford it?

We will provide subsidies and expand already existing programs to help people out.

Wow, that's going to cost  a lot of money.

We will pay for these reforms completely by reducing costs in Medicare and raising new taxes.  In fact this plan will save us $1.3 trillion dollars

And America becomes a country with universal health insurance coverage, and we get more coverage for less money?

Yup.

Let's do it.

by publius on 03/18/2010 06:25:37 PM EST

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No he wasn't and everybody at the time new he was being unrealistic.

by publius on 03/18/2010 08:36:48 PM EST

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I agree he was wrong if he meant a mandate was a bad idea in the context of a single payer type system.

But he was spot-on that a mandate without a strong public option/Medicare-buy-in/sing le payer system is bullshit that should rightfully outrage people.

by Tom Hanc on 03/18/2010 08:52:54 PM EST

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the malicious mandate punishes working-class people who cannot afford health coverage now. this "reform" wil l force cuts into their food/housing budget to meet the federal requirement. good for the health denier ceo's who will get a piece of that action! whoohoo! great job obama! i'm so thrilled.

oh right...the subsidies. just what i always wanted, to grow up and be a begger for the man...fucking awesome!

*back-door public option; pay annual punitive public fine for not having private insurance, and use emergency room liberally.

~majority.fm

by mauirising on 03/19/2010 02:09:27 PM EST

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Calm down Publius, of course I understand the need for mandates, or the argument for it. What I didn't understand is how it will work. Alphasig's response was an excellent explanation.  However, I'd like to be able to read whatever alphasig was reading.

David

by yturks on 03/18/2010 08:20:13 PM EST

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That was the self-censored and "calmed down" version of that post :)

by publius on 03/18/2010 08:39:24 PM EST

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I agree Dave, frankly my biggest complaint throughout this whole process has been the lack of transparency and clear explanations of what this bills does.  My post was based on my understanding that I have had to piece together from what I've read here and there along with some targeted google searches.  Here are a few links that give at least some explanation:

Link 1

Link 2

by alphasigmookie on 03/19/2010 01:00:44 AM EST

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Mandates put the burden on the poor.  Taxation spreads the cost more fairly.

People keep forgetting that a dollar means a lot more to a poor person than it does to a rich person.  That memory lapse is why we have an effectively regressive tax system today.  It's also why people think mandates are a good idea.

by EveningStarNM on 03/22/2010 09:15:35 AM EST

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Wow, how to begin on this. This country has ways of progressing to things you wouldn't expect, at a pace which is sluggish, but there also have been many things in my 46 yr old lifetime that have went backwards at the same time. I never thought I would see a time where stupidity is worn like a badge. 

How to know how this will shell out... One thing I will say, if progressive salesmanship doesn't improve drastically, and if we do not unite as the teabaggers did to demand what we voted for, my guess this will be the "moving backward" aspects of our lives and culture I mentioned earlier.                                                                                                                                   Damn Democrats.... we had all the tools we needed, except the spine.

"Life's rich demand creates supply in the hands of the power, the only vote that matters." --James Michael Stipe, from Begin the Begin.

by Hamsterdam on 03/22/2010 02:48:18 PM EST

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