Structural vs Stimulus | 82 comments (82 topical, 0 hidden)
I don't think it's that easy (none / 0)
    "education and infrastructure; that's pretty much it"

But improving education and infrastructure requires even more energy than the stagnant/falling level at present available, while the current infrastructure is already quietly crumbling for lack of maintenance.

Such production as still takes place in the US tends already to be relatively energy-efficient. That's just as well, as some production is likely to return, requiring yet more energy, as international shipping becomes more expensive.

Less waste and reduced obsolescence are good, especially as production is almost totally dependent on oil.

Maybe you saw this report on a German military study, discussed here. Have you seen it covered in the US MSM?

Add to that your "other systemic troubles" and maybe you can see there are difficult times ahead.

by Landbeyond on 09/05/2010 10:44:59 AM EST

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no need to panic (none / 0)

I don't think the study contains a lot of new revelations. Of course, oil reserves will at some point be depleted. But it will be a slow decline in oil supply and accordingly rising oil prices. This gives governments and industries some time to prepare and develope other sources of energy. Sure, there will be some, probably significant economic and geo-political impact, but I don't expect it to be entirely negative, as the study seems to suggest.

However, investing in other energy sources now would certainly be a good choice, as you'd rather produce the technology than buy it from elsewhere. Education is the basis of that as well, of course, as ignorant people are less likely to make the right choices, and even less likely to succeed.

by OldGerman on 09/05/2010 03:54:25 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Slow decline is a big problem (none / 0)
Well, okay. If you think warnings of:

    'shifts in the global balance of power, of the formation of new relationships based on interdependency, of a decline in importance of the western industrial nations, of the "total collapse of the markets" and of serious political and economic crises'

and similar conclusions from now numerous other studies, including industry, the Pentagon and the Department of Energy, can be downplayed as "some, probably significant economic and geo-political impact", then you can continue believing that economic recovery is only a matter of time, as the MSM and the politicians and economists will keep reassuring you.

When you look at this DoE graph:

From a DoE presentation

and when you bear in mind that the dwindling number of oil-producing countries (especially in the Middle East) are using increasing percentages of their output for their own development, I'm not sure how you can maintain such equanimity.

    "investing in other energy sources now would certainly be a good choice"

Maybe a better choice would have been to invest in them when the enormous quantities of fossil fuels needed to transition to other energy sources was still available and when the economy wasn’t entering permanent depression.

    "ignorant people are less likely to make the right choices"

The last few decades have provided ample proof of that.

    “I'd put my money on solar energy… I hope we don't have to wait til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.” — Thomas Edison, in conversation with Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone, March 1931

by Landbeyond on 09/06/2010 05:46:40 AM EST

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Okay, then... (none / 1)
...panic! We're all going to die!

by OldGerman on 09/06/2010 08:05:40 AM EST

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That's a tad childish (none / 0)
But a common reaction on this issue when people run out of arguments.

A little surprised to see you resorting to it though.

You've probably seen that Germany looks set to extend the life of its nuclear power plants. Maybe someone has been doing their sums regarding renewables and fossil fuel availability a few years down the road. 

by Landbeyond on 09/06/2010 12:02:12 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Hey! (none / 0)
You're still alive?

by OldGerman on 09/06/2010 12:16:02 PM EST

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Reduced to four words? (none / 0)
Perhaps I should apologize for inferring from your earlier comments that you were interested in the issue; that perhaps there were younger people in your family or of your acquaintance for whose future welfare you might have some concern, and that you might therefore wish to see TPTB and the public in general trying to make the best of a bad situation.

If you respond with a grunt I'll take it as confirmation that I was incorrect and that we were wasting each other's time. Or you may have retreated into emotional denial :o< -- again, not uncommon, and it's a phase that usually passes.

On the other hand, perhaps others are now a little better informed.

    "Have the courage to use your own understanding!" – Immanuel Kant

by Landbeyond on 09/06/2010 02:01:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Let me help interpreting my words (none / 0)
Thanks for your psychoanalysis, but as Opposition said, you didn't make any new points but just said "Study XYZ says that it will be terrible." So yes, discussing this any further would be pointless and a waste of time. You just seem to throw the words "Peak Oil!" around and expect everybody to be outraged. But no, it's obvious that oil will run out, it's not news. We'll have to wait and see how the world deals with it, and do whatever most of us do anyway by casting our votes on election day. It's not like nobody knows or cares about it, okay? You don't have to do any missionary work. Now if you don't mind, stop attacking me and go about your life. I hate it when people think "the end is neigh" and that nobody else knew about it, and I hate it even more when they throw out ad hominem attacks because reactions they recieve aren't excited enough. 

by OldGerman on 09/06/2010 02:39:32 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Much clearer - but puzzling (none / 0)
It appeared to me that it was me who was being subjected to ad hominem attacks, rather than vice versa. Perhaps if you'd used a few more words?

I don't recognize your characterization of my earlier comments. I had thought we were merely exchanging views.

Peak oil has nothing to do with oil running out.

by Landbeyond on 09/06/2010 06:03:52 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Arguments? (none / 0)
You are always just repeating that the whole world will collapse and there is nothing anybody can do about it.

If we can't do anything, why care about it?

Are you greeting your friends every day with the words:
"You are going to die sooner or later!"?

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 09/06/2010 12:36:57 PM EST

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scary (none / 0)

If we don't do anything, yes. we already have the solution for energy, it's only a question of building enough windmills right now and research more advanced energy extraction at the same time. 20 percent of energy in my country is from sustainable green tech. right now. Why not just copy paste. 

sweden has a goal of 49 percent green energy in 2030, this progress could be continued till approximate 100% in less than 60 years, at current rate.

But, accelerate it, raise taxes on companies that sells unnecessary products to pay for it the investment. 

by Valhalla on 09/06/2010 08:52:48 AM EST

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At least Sweden is trying (none / 0)
Unfortunately it finds itself in a world where most "leaders" can't or won't see and articulate what should be obvious.
 
We are currently seeing the first, mild effects of the situation we have created. There is no sign of a general end to high-level denial, which means no serious large-scale efforts at mitigation of whatever difficulties we may be facing before too long.

    “He that will not apply new remedies must expect new evils, for time is the greatest innovator.” — Francis Bacon, Essays

by Landbeyond on 09/06/2010 01:18:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]
So is China (none / 0)
and Germany.

"The first thing Fascists usually try to do is silencing the opposition."

by opposition on 09/06/2010 04:52:52 PM EST

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Yes (none / 0)
Correct.

by Landbeyond on 09/06/2010 06:06:07 PM EST

[ Parent ]
yep (none / 0)
and we have barely scratched the surface

by sisco66 on 09/07/2010 10:12:03 PM EST

[ Parent ]

Structural vs Stimulus | 82 comments (82 topical, 0 hidden)