10/08/2006 10:32:20 PM EST

HOLY SHIT! DEMS TO WIN SENATE?!

posted by adamg

http://www.realclearpolitic s.com/epolls/2006/senate/

Am I wrong here, or do I count 6 net Senate wins for the Dems?

1. Missouri, where the Dem leads by 1.
2. Ohio, where brown is up by 6
3. Montana, up by a few
4. Tennessee, up by 3 if I recall
5. Pennsylvania, Casey by double digits
6. Rhode Island, Chaffee goes down


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I have checked all the other close races, and guesse what?

Incumbent dems are holding onto their seats!

THAT IS 6 NET WINS! PUTTING THE SENATE AT 51 D, 49 R!

And if we take the House? WE WIN CONGRESS!

HOLY SHIT!

Now let's focus on Missouri, as that is the weakest area for Dems, with an average of tie, and +1D on the latest poll.

On a scary note, imagine how badly the Repubs will lobby Lieberman to switch sides. They will offer him anything to give them the Senate.

Perhaps that is why repubs are not so worried. Maybe they have already made a deal with Lieberman and he is their Manchurian Candidate?

Thoughts?
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HOLY SHIT! DEMS TO WIN SENATE?! | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 hidden)
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by adamg on 10/08/2006 10:32:44 PM EST

a lot of "ifs" (none / 0)
1. IF Dems can win all six of these close contests. (MO, TN, MT, RI, PA, OH)

2. IF Dems can manage to win in NJ, MI, MD.

3. IF Leiberman doesn't change to the Republican party after all the abuse he has suffered from Democrats.

4. IF the polls from the week of the Foley scandal hold until the election.

5. IF Karl Rove has no tricks up his sleeve.

6. IF the GOP campaign money advantage doesn't overwhelm Democrats.

Then yes. Democrats might take control of the Senate.

All you have to do is win ten out of ten very close elections.

I'm not saying it's impossible, but I'd be happy to bet you if you're offering even odds. 

by KenTX on 10/08/2006 10:47:23 PM EST

if (none / 0)
If Pubs keep lying and denying about Foley

by LORD FOUL on 10/09/2006 08:00:53 AM EST

[ Parent ]
current odds (none / 0)
Current odds are 70% chance GOP holds senate, 41% chance GOP holds house.  You can follow the odds at www.intrade.com, including the odds on specific races. 

Options contracts are much better guage than polls because people have real money riding on the outcome.  Greed is a powerful force. 

by alphasigmookie on 10/09/2006 11:03:02 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Gordon Gecko (none / 0)
"Greed is a powerful force." 

Damn straight. It has made America the most powerful nation on earth.

by KenTX on 10/09/2006 04:59:26 PM EST

[ Parent ]
well look closer at these two - MI and TN (none / 0)


Missouri 
Rasmussen has McCaskel up by 1% currently. Earlier this month McCaskill was up by 3%
Reuters\Zogby has Talent up by 4
Gallup has McCaskill up by 3
Mason-Dixon has a tie

Taken as a whole- dead even tie.


Tennessee
Gallup had Ford up by 5 in its last poll.
Rasmussen also had Ford up by 5 in its last poll.
Reuters\Zogby has a tie
Middle Tn. State U has Corker by 1
Mason-Dixon has Ford by 2

Combined- Ford by 2

by acroso on 10/08/2006 10:55:42 PM EST

ken (none / 0)
ken, I am saying that if the election where held today, and the latest polls from each of the races where the final result, then Dems would take Congress.

That is by itself a miracle. Never have we been above 3 net wins in the senate, now we are at 6? Amazing!

2 weeks ago there was little hope of winning because of MO and TN, but now we got a shot, hell we are corrently winning!

I know I will enjoy this for all I can.

by adamg on 10/08/2006 11:14:18 PM EST

Red Wall (none / 0)
Well you're going to win Montana.

I have a hard time believing Tennessee will elect a black democrat especially with the last name Ford. Of course the polls are saying Ford will win, but I seriously doubt that will be what happens on election day.

The red wall that moves west starti ng in all of Eastern Tennessee and the Nashville suburbs in middle Tennessee will end up overpowering Blue Memphis- as always...

by acroso on 10/08/2006 11:19:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Tennessee (none / 0)
Tennessee is the most baffling of all the Senate races.

My son, dtpizzle, who has posted on occasion in this forum, is in Tennessee working for the Ford campaign. He is confident of victory, and the kid is usually right.

Corker just fired his entire staff and replaced them, which was a good move, because there is no way in hell that he should be losing to Harold Ford in Tennessee. The Ford family is the most corrupt political family since Mayor Daley of Chicago.

Karl Rove is making his bets right now, and he will decide where to place his millions of dollars in television ad buys. I've gotta think that Tennessee is a major target. Furthermore, Corker has millions of his own money to spend.

Since 1994, the GOP has always enjoyed a 4-5 point undercount in the polls. In other words, the polls usually under-predict Republican turnout on election day. This is why Democrats are always suprised when they lose.

Prior to Mark Foley, I thought this would happen again. But when Rasmussen starts giving the edge to Ford, look out.

By the way, the most accurate poll in America, year-in/year-out is the Battleground Poll by Celinda Lake and Ed Goes. The pollsters are both Democrat and Republican, and their only objective is accuracy. 

by KenTX on 10/09/2006 12:35:25 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Ford (none / 0)
Don't worry, Ford will lose Tennessee.

Gore couldn't even win his own state and he was a white man.

by acroso on 10/09/2006 01:11:55 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Our brainwashing institutions (none / 0)
It's infuriating that our public education system has turned into brainwashing institutions who reprogram\brainwash our youth with liberal propoganda. THESE ARE TAX PAYER FUNDED not private schools. Fighting liberalism is seems impossible when they control our universities as they do. The only answer is to defund our education system as much as possible until these biases are fixed or eliminated. Schools should be places of patriotism and nationalism not we hate Bush machines.

by acroso on 10/09/2006 01:33:16 AM EST

[ Parent ]
brainwashing (none / 0)

Since when does hating bush have anything to do with loving democracy? He doesn't believe in the democratic system.

I think the author of that paste you posted plagiarized a Fidel Castro speech and just changed the names.

by ZenDiggity on 10/09/2006 07:49:02 AM EST

[ Parent ]
public (none / 0)
That was my own words.

The Democratic party is the party of terrorists and the party of foreign nationalists.

Yet loyalty to it is the main subject taught in our public schools

by acroso on 10/09/2006 08:03:26 AM EST

[ Parent ]
oh (none / 0)

Oh so you are the author? Well it sounded very Communist to me.

In fact most of the incendiary statements you post about the dems sound exactly like old soviet union propaganda except the names are changed.

 

by ZenDiggity on 10/09/2006 09:05:46 AM EST

[ Parent ]
acroso (none / 0)

God you are so right! We really need to change the mandate of public schools. How about instead of No Child Left Behind we change it to No Child Left of You. I have been attending a public university now for the past three years and have had two professors that I would call Democrats. Kids my age are liberals because we don't have any money, not because we have been brainwashed. We go to school to learn a trade so one day we will hopefully make money. So really, most of us are here trying to become Wall Street Republicans.

You want to talk about brainwashing institutions? Here's one for you: Church!

 Also, Ford is going to win.

by dtpizzle on 10/10/2006 08:12:14 AM EST

[ Parent ]
libs (none / 0)
All L&S subjects are the teaching of liberalism- an indoctrination.

I have no problems with tax payer funded school for classes of value and classes that do not undermine out nation.

by acroso on 10/10/2006 06:13:39 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Break out the tin hats...again. (none / 0)
This family decided to watch
Fox News to counteract the education systems reprograming and brainwashing of our youth with liberal propoganda 

by DeCee on 10/10/2006 07:59:09 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Acroso Fights Liberal Brainwashing! (none / 0)
Tired of fighting liberalism in public education system "that has turned into brainwashing institutions who reprogram\brainwash our youth with liberal propoganda" acroso doffs his/her Liberalism Brain Wave Reflector Hat that deflects the dreaded liberalism waves and replaces them with the dulcimer tones of Russ Limbaugh explaining his sex trips to the Dominican Republic

 

by DeCee on 10/10/2006 08:08:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Uh, acroso (none / 0)
"Gore couldn't even win his own state and he was a white man."
 
That was a very funny statement.

But you and I are open-minded, multi-cul tural, politically-correct, affirmative-action-activist , Starbucks-sipping, Birkenstock-wearing, illegal-alien-loving, fetus-hating, terrorist-loving, metro-sexuals.

We can't be caught laughing at stuff like that.

by KenTX on 10/09/2006 05:59:16 AM EST

[ Parent ]
heh (none / 0)
There are numerous studied that show people vote for people of the same color as they are.

That's why the Dem party has enslaved their African American base by giving them next to zero representation in state-wide offices like the U.S. senate.

Well there is Barrack Osama.

But this is just how things are.

by acroso on 10/09/2006 07:01:28 AM EST

[ Parent ]
I got it (none / 0)
So what you are really saying is that you are proud of being a narrow minded bigot that doesnt believe in America and would rather throw in with a facist that doesnt believe in Democracy? 

by ZenDiggity on 10/09/2006 07:35:59 AM EST

[ Parent ]
ha! race bating playbook! (none / 0)
No I'm saying both parties are scared to run non-white canidates because they always lose.

My statement was meant to reflect reality.

Why else do Democrats have 43 white\whitish senators while only having 1 black one when half of their base is made up of blacks?

by acroso on 10/09/2006 07:38:13 AM EST

[ Parent ]
that's why they play the game (none / 0)
"I know I will enjoy this for all I can."

I can sink a 60 foot putt. I've done it before. The odds of me getting close are pretty good. The odds of me actually sinking the putt are more remote. 

You have every right to be optimistic, because things are looking very good for the Dems right now. If I had to make a prediction, I would say the over/under for the Senate is 4 Dem pick-ups, and the over/under for the House is 20 Dem pick-ups. I've been making this same prediction throughout 2006. That gives the Dems a slight majority in the House and the GOP a slight majority in the Senate. Then the last two years of the Bush Administration will be fun for all political junkies.

by KenTX on 10/09/2006 12:21:50 AM EST

[ Parent ]
All I see are eggs (none / 0)
Wait until next month before you start counting the chickens....

by MedfordTim on 10/09/2006 07:22:10 AM EST

Senate Dems (none / 0)

<quote> IF Dems can manage to win in NJ, MI, MD </quote>

There is no way that Ben Cardin can lose in Maryland against Michael Steele, IF the Diebold machines aren't completely rigged. He should win by double digits. Steele is a black man with less than 20% support among blacks--for good reason.

What about Virginia?? Do you really think that George Macaca Allen will win? Chalk up Virginia for the Dems. 

by zenie on 10/09/2006 12:03:54 PM EST

Allen (none / 0)
NJ and MI are republican pickup oppoertunities so dems need to hold those seats jsut for the status quo. They are safe though.

Allen is up by 5.2% realclearpolitics average. This race seems to be well tied down for republicans regardless of what the press says. I suppose if dems pick up these other 6 seats, then we conclude it's a "wave" and maybe Allen will be out also? I doubt it though.

by acroso on 10/09/2006 03:38:36 PM EST

[ Parent ]
polls (none / 0)
http://www.usatoday.com/new s/washington/2006-10-09-pol l_x.htm

If this is for real or holds, then I imagine not only Allen but also Kyl in Arizona etc etc would lose.

That would be a 8 seat pick-up

by acroso on 10/09/2006 03:55:45 PM EST

[ Parent ]
HOLY SHIT! DEMS TO WIN SENATE?! | 27 comments (27 topical, 0 hidden)
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