The Young Turks

With Election Day arriving Tuesday, I waited until the very last moment for John Kerry to do something else really stupid before submitting my predictions. This election will fly in the face of all politics being local. This is clearly a referendum on George W. Bush. Democrats who despise this president will do as much political damage to him as possible on Tuesday with a real drubbing at the ballot box. Unlike Bill Clinton, who in 1994 still had a lot of time to adjust to the message that the electorate sent him in the midterm elections, this President, despite his veto pen, and implicit power will be rendered a lame duck with the predicted results I present below.  Democrats will do temporary damage to the Republican hold on congress, but permanent damage to the legacy of George W. Bush. The frustration of his prior successes at the polls will be somewhat mitigated by the message to be sent on Tuesday.

Below you will find my prognostications of the races I feel are in play in both the House and Senate. Some may say that they are overly optimistic, but I am optimistic as a Democrat, in a different way than I have been in the last two Presidentials. This war is inarguably unpopular to some degree with virtually all Americans. This is the overriding issue. Sure there are others, there always are; but the Iraq War will define this election, and this election will, I believe, in retrospect, define this presidency.

Democrats will have good news from states like Indiana and Arizona which is where the exclamation point will be felt. Pennsylvania, Ohio and New York have long been considered fertile ground, but Indiana and Arizona will quite possibly change the political landscape going toward 2008. Now if John McCain runs, then Arizona will not be a Democratic gain, but Howard Dean's 50 State strategy is beginning to show its credentials. I was a skeptic, but I am now beginning to see the value. Even Wyoming and Idaho could bring good news....WYOMING AND IDAHO! Not that this is a presidential blueprint for 2008, but I do see the merits.

I am also prepared to say that I was wrong about Connecticut. I thought that the Lamont challenge would have a negative impact on the three swing house races in Connecticut. I think the results will bear out that it had no net effect on the races. He won't win, but all three of them will.

Thanks for all of your support early in the election for our Super Tuesday segment....Don't forget to vote...

U.S. HOUSE

There has been a tremendous amount of attention given to three states; Ohio, Pennsylvania and Connecticut throughout the extended campaign season dating back to the spring. While they were certainly deserving of the attention, and remain so, two states that have not been discussed nationally as having a potential impact but which remain vitally important, and a potential Election Day goldmine, are Indiana and Arizona. These are two important states going forward for the Democrats, and particularly DNC Chairman Howard Dean's "50 State Plan," in that they are not historically, at least in recent history, Democratic states. In fact it is an election return watcher's rite of passage to watch the returns come in from Indiana early in the evening as their polls close first, and to be depressed as Democrats because the news is seldom good, and then only when someone named Bayh is running. I predict that these two states will contribute mightily, despite their size, to the Democrats taking control of the U.S. House on Tuesday. If the Democrats are able to capitalize on the change in these two states over the next two years, it could really change the Election of 2008. If John McCain were to become the GOP nominee in 2008 then whatever strides are made in Arizona would of course become moot. However a change in Indiana could make a big difference in Democratic strategy, and make Senator Evan Bayh, who I don't view as a serious presidential candidate, at least in 2008, a serious Vice Presidential candidate. There are scattered races in other states that provide a great deal of encouragement in general, but these two states, and the election in CO-7 are particularly pleasing looking forward. I am optimistic, but with good reason. After each race I will give the "standings" referring to what this race does to the House breakdown. The races will be alphabetical by state, and then numerical by district. Occasionally you will see a (ST) after a candidate indicating a former guest on The Young Turks Super Tuesday segment. Remember I only reference the races I believe to be competitive. So here we go....

ARIZONA

AZ-1: This is a little bit risky, and somewhat against the polling trend, but I feel as if Congressman Rick Renzi (R) will not be able to weather the storm of ethics allegations against him. This will be a race where Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) has some coattails and propels an unlikely candidate, lawyer Ellen Simon to victory. D +1

AZ-5: Jack Abramoff and some mean spirited and cocky campaigning on the part of Congressman J.D. Hayworth (R) will cost the GOP another seat in Arizona as the Chair of the Arizona Democratic Party; the affable Harry Mitchell will be able to ride a small wave into office. Mitchell has been close in the polling, so this is one where I am relying on the national and statewide trend to put Mitchell over. I think that will happen. D +2

AZ-8: This is the easiest of the AZ races to forecast, and in some respects the most depressing for the Republicans. Anti-Immigration, Minuteman, Randy Graf is running to replace the retiring Jim Kolbe (R) here. The popular Kolbe would not endorse Graf because he was too far out there on many issues and this crippled his campaign. It was thought by the GOP that his candidacy would prove the efficacy of their anti-immigration message. He has failed to prove them right. Former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords has stood by and watched as Graf has imploded. D +3

CALIFORNIA

No close races. This is something of a victory for the GOP. They have weathered the Duke Cunningham scandal in San Diego CD-50, where the Democrats best chances for victory there would have been in the special election where they lost. They have also watched as Rep. Richard Pombo was able to avoid problems associated with allegations of ethics violations that many thought would cause him to lose his CD-11 seat. This will not be the case. Many of the disappointments for the Democrats in California can be traced to the lackluster gubernatorial campaign of the lackluster Phil Angelides. The Republicans may have been smart not to have found a strong candidate to oppose Sen. Dianne Feinstein as a close race there would have energized the Democratic base and caused problems in the house races.

COLORADO

CO-4:  Rep Marilyn Musgrave (R) is the most unabashed Anti Gay Marriage, and frankly, Anti-Homosexual, member of Congress. Her district was favorably redrawn and this will help her to hold her seat against the feisty State Rep.Angie Paccione (ST). D +3

CO-7: Rep Bob Beauprez retired from congress to run for Governor. He will lose his race, and the GOP will lose this seat. Former State Senator Ed Perlmutter (ST) will win, and I believe win big. D +4
CONNECTICUT

CT-2: Going into 2006 this seemed to be the only seat that the Democrats had a real shot of picking up in Connecticut, now it appears that it is the only one that they may not. Rob Simmons has the distinction of being the Republican Representative who represents the largest percentage of Democrats. He has beaten Joe Courtney (ST) before, and this race is the red headed stepchild on the card for 2006. All of the attention has been paid to the 2 high profile house incumbents and, of course, the Senate race. It is only because of the trend that I am calling this one for Courtney. I don't think he will win by much, but an uninspired Republican electorate in the Nutmeg State combined with what appears to be a national wave of some considerable size leads me to think that Simmons will not pull this one out. D +5

CT-4: Chris Shays has presented himself as a moderate for quite a few years now. In fact he was once moderate, but seemingly only because his party was more moderate. He bucked them on social issues and made a name for himself on campaign finance reform. Poor Marty Meehan will have to find another partner now. Shays insistence, and then his waffling, and then some downright absurd and questionable remarks on Iraq have cost him dearly. The party clearly underestimated his vulnerability and he may have been better off getting the party to replace Alan Schlesinger on the Senate ticket with him. Shays has always been able to count on moderation to help him at home. However standing with the President on Iraq does not equal moderation in this election cycle. He will lose on Tuesday to Diane Farrell (ST), one of the more unlikely outcomes of the day when considered months ago. D +6

CT-5: This race is somewhat of a mirror of the Shays race though Nancy Johnson lacks some of the name recognition that Chris Shays has. Johnson has run on her record of Medicare reform, but that is not flying this year when Iraq is the premier issue and the jury is still sequestered on whether the Medicare reform was neutral or a disaster, but it's confusing and often unfair aspects have proven that it is not a success. Chris Murphy (ST), a State Senator and plain talker has responded quickly to Johnson's negative ads, and though trailing throughout the campaign in fundraising, he will not trail on election night. D +7

FLORIDA

FL-13 Christine Jennings is an upstart candidate in the race to replace the positively ridiculous Katherine Harris in the U.S. Congress. When all is said and done this will probably be the most expensive House race of the year. Polls have shown car dealer Vern Buchanan's lead having evaporated, and there is no reason to think that they are wrong. Any district that elected Katherine Harris at all can't possibly be expected to elect a Democrat so soon, right? Not so. It will be close, but the year will dictate a narrow win for Jennings. In the big picture the geography makes this an upset. More Republicans came out to vote here in the primaries and that is usually an ominous sign for the Democrats. I just have a hunch here. D +8

FL-16 Everyone who wants to vote for the GOP candidate here will have to mark the box next to the name "Mark Foley." Enough said. My sympathies go out to Joe Negron, the replacement candidate. The GOP is spending a lot of money, but Tim Mahoney will win here. D +9

FL-22 Another moderate Republican Clay Shaw has survived many elections in a close district (Kerry won in 2004). This year he faces Ron Klein (ST) who is well-funded and seems to finally be the one who can beat Shaw. Shaw has very little to run on now as he has backed Bush on the war and other issues. His claims that he will head the Ways and Means Committee should he win seem to not only be inaccurate but also not exactly sexy. There is no way this will not be close, but Klein will win. D +10

GEORGIA

GA- 12 Former GOP Congressman Mac Collins is trying to win his redrawn seat back from Conservative Democrat Jim Marshall. He won't  D +10

IDAHO

ID-1 There is a close race for Governor in this state which never has close races. This will help Larry Grant to upset the bizarre and wildly conservative Bill Sali in this race. You may think that I am being overly optimistic, but the planets align pretty well with a strange GOP candidate, a popular Democratic candidate for Governor bringing out a lot of Democrats, and a trend away from the GOP this year, even in reliable Idaho. D +11

ILLINOIS

IL-6 I was all prepared to call this for GOP State Senator Peter Roskam until today. In looking at the polling trends and the poll takers, it seems that Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran and much ballyhooed candidate will win. This race has been the ultimate "toss-up" all season, and remains so now. However with trends being what they are, and the challenge to the Governor being less than what it was supposed to be, the Democrat will win the seat of the retiring Henry Hyde, but not by Zogby's 14 pts. D +12

IL-8 Despite being labeled a "one termer" after her victory over Phil Crane in 2004. Rep. Melissa Bean (ST) has not trailed at all in the polling in this race. This trend will continue for her. D +12

INDIANA

IN-2 Congressman Chris Chocola is being challenged again by attorney Joe Donnelly. Chocola has not polled well, and Indiana will be a flashpoint in this election. Donnelly will win, and by more than predicted. D +13

IN-8 Congressman John Hostettler has never won by much. Indiana Democrats have finally installed a new sheriff in town, Sheriff Brad Ellsworth (ST), and he will deputize Hostettler. He will beat Hostettler handily and add to the Indiana disaster for the Republicans. D +14

IN-9 The closest Indiana race is between Congressman Mike Sodrel (R), and former Congressman Baron Hill (D). This will be the third time they've faced each other, and it will be Hill's turn to win. Thus race has see-sawed in the polls all season, and it seems certain to be close. I don't see Sodrel overcoming the day, but the trend has been in his favor lately. D +15

IOWA

IA- 1 Bruce Braley, an attorney, won a high profile Democratic primary for the seat of Jim Nussle who decided to run for Governor. His opponent Mike Whalen was never able to gain traction and Braley should win by a big margin. D +16

KENTUCKY

KY- 4 I may run into trouble for being too optimistic in Kentucky. I like the chances for former Dem. Congressman Ken Lucas, who retired to keep a term limits pledge, to win in his return. Congressman Geoff Davis has remained up or within the margin of error. He beat George Clooney's dad in 2004 but, even though this is Kentucky, I think that Lucas will return with a win. Yes the wave will even hit Kentucky, just go to the 6^th district below. D +17

KY-6 It seems as I have drowned in Democratic optimism for the last three election cycles I have always picked Ann Northup to lose. I am 0 for 3, and refuse to miss out on being right when she finally does. John Yarmuth, a real liberal, will win this race but not by much. The Dems will be smoking Bluegrass on Tuesday. D +18

LOUISIANA

LA-2 Bill Jefferson, the Democratic entry in the scandal world this year needs to force a run-off. The Democrats will hold this seat, though not with Jefferson. I predict that even Louisiana will not honor ethics lapses this year. State Rep. Karen Carter will win on election day without a run-off. D +18

MINNESOTA

MN-1 GOP Rep. Gil Gutknecht was doing quite well in an area of Minnesota that is typically close. Recently, because of Dem. Candidate Tim Walz using his military experience in criticizing the war, and canceling an appearance with John Kerry after his "botched joke" the momentum seems to be switching. I don't think that it is too little too late. A stretch perhaps but I give it to Walz as a great closer here. D +19

MN-6 In the wake of the Mark Foley incident it seemed that children's rights activist and Democratic candidate Patty Wetterling (ST) would get a boost in her race to win the seat of GOP Rep. Mark Kennedy who left the congress to run for the senate. It has not happened and Michelle Bachman will hold this seat for the Republicans in quirky Minnesota. D +19

NEBRASKA

NE-3 This has been an intriguing race for dorks like me who can't get enough of this stuff. State Sen. Adrian Smith, a Republican, has been backed by the ultra-conservative Club for Growth. He is running against farm subsidies and against a rancher Randy Kleeb in Nebraska. This is one to watch, especially in light of the results of the only recent poll, albeit a Democratic poll, showing Kleeb up by 6. When in doubt I have leaned to the Democrats, this is no different. I think Kleeb will give the Democrats one of their biggest surprises. Look for headlines talking of the sweep to highlight the Democrats, "even winning in Nebraska." Kleeb will win. D +20

NEVADA

NV-2 Secretary of State Dean Heller, a Republican, will win this race but not by much. Jill Derby his opponent has brought in Wesley Clark and other surrogates but the time is not right yet for a Democrat, and Heller is a known statewide candidate. D +20

NEW HAMPSHIRE

NH-2 2004 was no fluke. New Hampshire, once a stalwart Democratic state is beginning to resemble some of its more liberal neighbors. That being said the race in CD-2 will be a squeaker. I do feel though that the race is beginning to turn to the favor of the Democratic challenger Paul Hodes. Cong. Charlie Bass will not be able to fight off the tide that the day will create. That combined with the popularity of Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat on the ballot, will push the Dems. to another pickup. D +21

NEW MEXICO

CD-1 Democratic Attorney General Patricia Madrid (ST) will finally solve the mystery of beating Heather Wilson in the first congressional district: Run in 2006. Wilson's number seems to be up and New Mexico, where George Bush's popularity has waned sharply will send another Democrat to the House. Madrid has one statewide before and will win in her district on Tuesday. D +22

NEW YORK

NY-19 Congresswoman Sue Kelly (R) was probably not expecting such a challenge from county legislator John Hall, though she has certainly been alerted. Again as part of a wave it appears that the energy behind Hall's candidacy, combined with two races at the top whose results are virtually assured, will cause Kelly to lose her seat. This is a casualty of a bad day at the House for the GOP as this is a seat they should not lose. D +23

NY-20 Rep. John Sweeney (R) did not need spousal abuse charges to show up at the end of the campaign, or at anytime really. However the press he is getting at the end, combined with the conditions discussed here will cause Kristin Gillibrand to find herself with a seat in Congress. This is a close and dirty race that Sweeney can only win if people just decide not to turn out in big numbers.  Though the late momentum will still be too much to stop. D +24

NY-24 State Senator Ray Meier is trying to hold for the GOP the seat of the retiring Sherwood Boehlert (R) against an aggressive campaign by Mike Arcuri, a county DA. All of the Democratic celebs (Bill C., and Barack O) have come to help.  Arcuri seems to have the goods here, and Clinton and Spitzer at the top of the ticket where both Gore and Kerry did fairly well will lead to another Democratic score. D +25

NY-26 Former Republican Jack Davis probably wishes that Mark Foley's scandal happened a few weeks later, as Rep. Tom Reynolds. who was accused of being part of the GOP machine that looked the other was stung by the accusations, but now seems to be rebounding. It would be an embarrassing but appropriate were Reynolds, the Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee was to lose. I don't think he'll lose, and the GOP will surprisingly hold this seat. D +25

NY-29 Military veteran Eric Massa (D (ST)) has had his troubles here against Rep. Randy Kuhl (R) but appears to have gotten his act together, and received the endorsement of the Rochester Democrat and Chronicle. This is not generally a featured race, but Massa seems to have pulled things together at the right time. I like him to win. D +26

NORTH CAROLINA

NC-8 Larry Kissell (ST) was one of our favorite candidates that we had on the show during "Super Tuesday," so I wanted to mention his challenge to Rep. Robin Hayes (R), though it is probably not among the closest races.  Kissell is a very real, and approachable candidate and his race is closer than popularly believed. Polls have shown some wild inconsistencies, in which case you must go by history. Hayes will win, but not by a landslide, and if he doesn't, then his party will have a worse day than previously thought. D +26

NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) will beat Rep. Charlie Taylor (R) showing that Democrats can be conservatives too. D +27

OHIO

OH-1 The fact that Congressman Steve Chabot is even discussed here is testimony to how far the Ohio GOP has sunk in the last year. Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley (D), who lost to Chabot in 2000 has been polling well. This is a swing district and if the trend is true, and I am right about any of these picks, Cranley should beat Chabot. Since I believe that SW Ohio won't be exempt. I think Cranley will win by a whisker. D +28

OH-2 I can't see how reasonable people, even in a Republican district will respond to Pro Iraq rhetoric like that of Cong. Jean Schmidt (R). She still sounds the same horn that she did in blasting John Murtha for "cutting and running" in Iraq. Victoria Wulsin is polling well down the stretch and should win this race. D +29

OH-14 It is hard for Rep. Deborah Pryce (R) to paint herself as an independent in light of the fact that she has managed to make herself part of the GOP House leadership. She has been a consistent supporter of the President She will not be able to reinvent herself and Mary Jo Kilroy (D) (ST) will beat her on Tuesday. D +30

OH-18 Bob Ney (R) a former congressman, and one of the reasons why Ohio will be the epicenter of the Republican disaster, leaves behind a mess in his own district. Zach Space (D), a developer, will beat State Senator Joy Padgett who has our sympathy for having to run in this district. D +31

PENNSYLVANIA

PA-4 It is hard to keep writing about the races that could go to the Democrats if there is a wave. So I will reverse course here and say that it is unlikely in my opinion that Rep. Melissa Hart (R) will lose to Jason Altmire (ST) here. There are too many similarities between the candidates on social issues to inspire liberals to get excited about Altmire. Santorum runs well here and Altmire has seemed unable to break through. Ok, so now for the caveat. If I'm wrong, and Altmire wins this seat, it is indicative of the fact that I will be right about most of my predictions on Tuesday. This is one of those seats that, if lost by the GOP, mean that it could be a 40-50 seat loss for the GOP. Hart will hold. D +31

PA-6 Lois Murphy (D) (ST) lost this race last time out by 6500 votes. John Kerry won this district on the same day. Cong. Jim Gerlach (R) has spent a ton of money defending his seat, but it has been a foregone conclusion for some time that this would be a pickup. It remains that way. D +32
PA-7 Curt Weldon (R) did not need the images of nepotism with alleged favoritism for his daughter, only weeks before the election. This suburban Philadelphia district was not initially one in which the Democrats were seen to be able to pick up. However Weldon has made his own messes, and no one needs to run against a Navy Admiral like Joe Sestak in a year where second guessing the civilian command of the military is the most persuasive argument with the electorate. Sestak will take this race. D +33

PA-8 This is the race that the GOP can feel most confident about of the four in play in Pennsylvania. That is not saying much. Rep Mike Fitzpatrick (R) has somehow been able to avoid the disaster of Pennsylvania Republicans and maintain a lead, a slim lead, but a lead. He will be reelected over Patrick Murphy (ST) the only Murphy to lose on Tuesday. This race will not be called until late into the evening, or early morning. It will be among the three closest. D +33

PA-10 The only thing worse politically than the revelation of an affair, is the revelation of an affair in which your mistress accuses you of assault. So begins the postscript of the political biography of Rep. Don Sherwood (R). Navy veteran Chris Carney, a political neophyte lucked into the bumbling Congressman as an opponent. Sherwood, for the record, owned up to the affair, but denied the abuse charge. Carney will deny him a return to Congress. D +34

TEXAS

TX-22 If you told me I would be writing about this seat two years ago, I would have said, "Really? I will be writing a list of Congressional predictions?" Tom Delay (R), the former Majority leader was forced to resign while fighting his illegal campaign activity indictment. Former Rep. Nick Lampson (D), who may have had something of a chance even if Delay chose to run again, has been looking like a shoo-in. However the GOP has recently, and oddly just poured a lot of money into this race to try and get Sheila Sekula-Gibbs (R), a write-in candidate, elected. It will be closer than it ought to be, and Lampson shouldn't "Buy" in the DC area, but he will win this time. D +35

UTAH
UT-1 Just kidding.

VIRGINIA

VA-2 Congresswoman Thelma Drake (R) will win reelection but won't be helped by the insurgent candidacy of Jim Webb, likely to increase Democratic turnout. Phil Kellam (R) has been ahead occasionally in the polling , but not enough to make me think that he can win. Drake will win reelection D +35

WASHINGTON

WA-8 This is the anomaly of the day. Rep. Dave Reichert (R) is a Pro-Bush, first termer in a blue state but seems set to win reelection against Darcy Burner, a former Microsoft executive. The fact that Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) does not have as tough a race as previously thought leads me to think that low turnout could hurt Reichert. However there has been nothing to make me believe that he will lose. D +35
WISCONSIN

WI-8 Congressman Mark Green (R), from the Bay of the same name, retired from congress in order to run for Governor this year. It probably will not work out for him as Jim Doyle appears to be putting it together. However his open seat is being fought for by two aggressive candidates, Steve Kagen, a doctor, and John Gard the Speaker of the Assembly. This is Bush country (Remember John Kerry referring to Lam-BERT Field?), but Kagen has a lot of money and seems to have hit stride in the debates. This is a pick-up in a toss-up. D +36

WYOMING

WY-AT LARGE I am not kidding. This seat is in play. When Congresswoman Barbara Cubin was heard telling her Libertarian challenger that she "Would slap him in the face" if he were not in a wheelchair, she may have sounded her own death knell. On a day when the Governor, a Democrat will win, and the Senator, A Republican will win, it will be interesting to see if Gary Trauner (D) can win. The margin has been narrowing so I will call it for Trauner, just so I can say that I did when he wins. Yes this is the kind of day it will be. D +37

A 37 SEAT PICK-UP FOR THE DEMOCRATS IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.....A 22 SEAT MAJORITY BEGINNING NEXT YEAR...

U.S. SENATE

I have been saying for awhile that there was no chance of the Democrats capturing the U.S. Senate. I never thought, and still do not think, that Harold Ford Jr. could win in Tennessee. I thought that Missouri was too much of a southern state for Claire McCaskill to win, and I never dreamed that Sen. George Allen would reveal himself so publicly as the buffoon that many of us knew him to be. I reserved the right to change my mind. Here now; the U.S. Senate races which will matter.

ARIZONA: Senator Jon Kyl thought that immigration and an unknown opponent might make him a cinch for reelection. It has not been a cinch. Jim Pederson has run a good uphill battle in a state at which the Democratic party did not throw significant money. Had they focused earlier on this race, it seems that it could have been winnable. Pederson will come close, but still lose by 5%. D + 0

CONNECTICUT: What has not been said yet about this race? It was a certain Dem hold this cycle before Sen. Joe Lieberman was challenged. Now the Democrats have to hope that Lieberman, who will win, will caucus with his "party." Had Lamont gone after his Republican opponent earlier, and brought more focus to the notion that it is Un-Republican to vote for a Democrat it may have helped. That too is doubtful. Joe Lieberman is popular with the elderly, a strong and well represented voting block in this state. Polling has not looked good for Lamont, though better down the stretch. I never thought that Lieberman would lose this seat, and he won't. D + 0

MARYLAND: Lt. Gov. Michael Steele (R) has run a very good race in Maryland. Had this been any other year he might have won this seat. Rep Ben Cardin is neither lackluster nor unbeatable. However the leanings of the state, Steele's opposition to stem cell research, and the focus on the Democratic candidate through a protracted primary will lead Cardin to victory by 5%. The Democrats will escape this one. D + 0

MICHIGAN: There is no polling, only speculation leading people to think that Sen. Debbie Stabenow will lose her seat. The GOP has stopped spending money and Stabenow will hold comfortably by at least 7% D +0

MINNESOTA: How did the GOP let this one get away? Retiring Senator Mark Dayton did his own party a favor by not seeking reelection because he was not terribly popular, and certainly was not a lock for reelection. However Rep. Mark Kennedy (R) has not been able to make this race close against Prosecutor Amy Klobuchar. This bodes poorly for Minnesota Republicans and deflates their notion that there is a real trend toward their party that supersedes the candidates themselves. Senator Klobuchar sounds goofy, but it will happen. D + 0

MISSOURI: This is the Senate. Anyone making a call on who will win the Senate just needs to commit to a candidate here. Of course they are all important, and without any one of them the Democrats cannot win. However this is a true toss-up, and in Missouri, in another year the toss-up would more often than not go to the GOP. The state Republican party saw the presence of a ballot initiative ostensibly on stem cell research as a way of energizing conservatives to vote. The problem there is that almost three in five Missourians are in favor of stem cell research. Claire McCaskill is a known candidate having run before. She left the cities this time and worked the areas of the state where she previously had less success. She won't win those areas but she will win more votes there this time, and that will win her a Senate seat. Jim Talent has played defense the entire time and tried to energize his base. That won't be enough. McCaskill by 3%. D +1

MONTANA: Senator Conrad Burns (R) has done everything that one would do to try to lose their Senate seat: Be close to a defamed lobbyist (Jack Abramoff), offend minorities, and fall asleep at committee hearings. His challenger Jon Tester has done the opposite. He has run a positive campaign, and proven himself to be a man of the people, right form the Max Baucus playbook in Montana.  The GOP, and the Burns campaign did not use taxes as an issue until late in the campaign, and it seems to be working well for them. They waited to long, and this seat will be lost by 4% on election day. D +2

 NEW JERSEY: It was thought momentarily that Tom Kean Jr. (R) had the best hope to pick up a seat for the GOP. These hopes faded fast in Reliably Democratic New Jersey. The GOP must wonder what they have to do in New Jersey after McGreevey, Corzine's budget fiasco, and Menendez allegations of ethics violations still can't pave the way to statewide wins, even when the name Tom Kean is on the ballot. D +2

 OHIO: Sen. Mike Dewine (R) sought to show himself as a moderate, and to create distance between himself and Bush. Rep. Sherrod Brown (ST) has made sure that people know that that is not the case. For at least two months now Brown has led consistently and the electoral weather in Ohio is not good for the Senator. Maybe he should have had his people press for that Supreme Court nomination that was talked about earlier this year. Sherrod Brown will become a reliable liberal vote in the Senate. D +3

 PENNSYLVANIA: In 2004, a feeling among many Democrats was, "Now that we've lost the White House, let's at least beat Rick Santorum in `06"  That wish will come true this year as State Treasurer Bob Casey (D) has run a perfect campaign, by being the perfect candidate for the state. The Casey name is as well known in Pennsylvania as the Kean name in New Jersey, however Santorum has proven to be so divisive as to cause socially conservative independents to flock to Casey. This is where it starts for the Democrats and Virginia is where it needs to end. Casey by 9%  D +4

RHODE ISLAND: This is a wild one, and closer than the Democrats will have you believe. However this is among the bluest states in the country. The Chafee family has held this seat for generations, but Sen. Lincoln Chafee (R) seems to be unable to take his moderate Republicanism (He claims not to have voted for Bush in 2004) and woo the electorate again. Sheldon Whitehouse (D) let a primary campaign beat the pulp out of Chafee, and had run against Bush as Chafee has run from him. I think this will be very close, but Whitehouse will win by 3% D +5

TENNESSEE: For the record, and it is on some record, I never thought that the Democrats could win this seat. One thing that is not often talked about is that there is a gay marriage amendment on the ballot in Tennessee. This has never helped a Democrat. I don't think that the results of this race will be about race at all. Tennessee is a  very red state right now. I know they have a Democratic Governor, but the state has not elected a federal Democrat since Jim Sasser in 1996. This is about being a very conservative state; if it weren't Rep Harold Ford (D) would not have been running as conservatively as he has, because he is not as conservative as he runs. Former Chattanooga Mayor Bob Corker (R) will win and  be a reliable conservative in the Senate, and this will not be because Harold Ford is black. D +5

VIRGINIA: Jim Webb (D) was an impressive and brilliant choice by the Democrats to run in Virginia. His military Bona Fides, and Reagan administration experience set him up to be a perfect challenge to the presumed to be reelected Senator, George Allen (R). It is good that the Democrats had him there when Allen self destructed. If luck is when opportunity meets preparation, then the Democrats were prepared. Webb is not a dynamic, nor a particularly telegenic candidate, but the Democrats who have won here in the past have not been either (Think Robb, Warner, and Kaine). As Allen and his racially insensitive exploits have made headlines, Webb has quietly and I would say graciously capitalized on them. Governors Mark Warner and Tim Kaine have proven that Democrats can win here. I think that Webb will. The military vote in the Norfolk area, his home base in southwest Virginia, and the reliably Democratic bedroom communities in Northern Virginia will all combine to give Webb as Senate seat by 4%. D +6