The Young Turks

Well for one, by 2010 Saudi Arabia will probably be pumping less than it does today. If they manage to sustain current flow rates, which is accomplished by pumping more and more water into the fields to keep pressure high, then at some point soon the Saudis will find themselves with a lot more water than oil.

Many fields such as those in Bahrain, Oman and Texas have water cuts, (the % of liquid pumped out that is water) of 90-95%.

This will signal a permenant reduction in Saudi oil, and global peak oil as well, as no other nation can claim to be able to supply the increasing demand.

When the Saudis are finally forced to admit that one of their super giants has peaked and is in decline the oil markets will explode.

For the day 1 of Aramcos biggest fields peaks, is the day that Saudi officially peaks, and that is the day the world peaks. From that point on oil prices will hit triple digits and never look back.

The good news is that there is a solution to peak oil, and it is one that can be implemented in 3-5 years, Ethanol.

60 Minutes just had on a report in which a professor at Berkely's Renewable Energy Lab said that within 2-3 years a large number of fueling stations could be reconfigured to service E-85. Based on this statement it is reasonable to assume that 3-5 years is sufficent time to build up the needed infastructure to stave off economic collapse.

For the 15% gas needed for E-85 America could use its onw production. (We currently produce 5.5 million barrels/day and always have ANWR's 10 billion barrels to fall back on in a pinch)

But where to get enough Ethanol? Well there is abviously the Corn that struggling farmers would love to sell for that purpose and already do.

Then there is all the excess crops that the USDA burns each year from the effects of farm subsidies.

There is also lawn grass, the largest crop in America.

Imagine this:

Instead of mulching your lawn you attach a bag that holds the clippings. Then once a month your collect all the clippings and head down to the local Ethanol distillary where you hand over your clippings and recieve some amount of money, (like you do now with cans at the recycling center).

150+million lawns being mowed, on average every 1-2 weeks. This yields a reasonable estimate of 2.7 billion+ bags of clippings.

Another source is wood chips, of course, although that contribution would be minimal.

BUT THE MOTHER OF ALL SOURCES IS:

Wild Grasses! Yes, I know is sounds silly but here me out.

Any one who has driven for hours though the plains of North, South Dakota, Iowa or several other midwest states knows that there is a shit load of wild grass lands that no one is cultivating.

Probably hundreds of thousands of square miles of it. This is land that is not being used for agriculture or grazing!

It's also wild, so the grass is evolved to grow in the local climate. No need to irrigate, or fertilize.

Just bring in a harvester once or twice a year and collect million, probably BILLIONS of tons of wild grasses that can be distilled into ethanol!

With a combination of all of the above it is not unreasonable to imagine that America could nearly compeletly replace its fossil fuels with completely renewable ones!

But what of when America's oil wells run dry? Where do we then get our 15% gas? From oil shale, or clean coal gasification, or Canadian Tar Sand, (Better start treating our northern neighbors nicer).

Flex Fuel vehicles, which GM is manufacturing 400,000 of this year, offer you the choice of using E-10(regular gas) or any combo of Ethanol!

Its like insurance for your car's tank! If peak oil hits tomorrow, or a hurricane takes out Southern refineries, gas lines won't be a problem!

The only downside to current flex fuel cars is that you have to buy GM, which means crappy reliability. But I am sure Toyota and Honda will get on it quickly, for they are not ones to be behind any curves for long.

Overall, Ethanol is America's greatest hope for staving off the imminent menace of peak oil.

When the House of Saud is overthrown by 2015, (declining oil production, increasing production costs and a soaring population will lead to a worsening quality of life for Saudi citizens who, already disliking the royals, will quickly overthrow them) whatever production they have will be temprarily shut down completely, and much decreased when it returns.

This means that crude prices, already at record highs of $150-$200/barrel will soar to $250-$300, making gas $15/gallon a common site around the nation.

For all your sakes I hope you consider buying a flex fuel vehicle, (assuming that someone other than GM offers them) because other wise you'll be paying $300 to fill up within 8.5-9 years.

Any thoughts?