Republicans will now gain at least one senate seat in 08'
LA
John Kennedy has gotten into the race, and the GOP is likely to unseat Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) in 2008. Will this be the GOP’s only Senate pickup in 2008?
From his website
“
I also want to share with you the results of a poll I commissioned recently. The 1,000 sample “likely voters” poll conducted by Zogby International showed me leading incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu by 45% to 38% with a 3.2% margin of error.”
He's a former Democrat who is very popular, and the Republicans have been begging him to get in the race for the last year. She is a Democrat who is very unpopular.
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Also Lindsey Grahamnesty has a primary challenger in South Carolina - Tim Carnes. Hopefully the people of S.C. will get rid of Lucy.
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CNN spun the debate as a Huckabee victory even though he stunk it up as usual. Here's who really won the debate.
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The 6 scenarios of the primaries by national review. A good read.
"Six Presidential Scenarios by [John Hood]
For a recent column and radio appearance, I worked up six scenarios for how the early presidential contests might play out. I think they're plausible, though of course not equally likely. Here they are:
• Romney the Hare. He wins Iowa convincingly, with about a third of the vote. Giuliani and Thompson are in the low- to mid-teens. The size of his victory generates a wave of free media coverage, aided by his subsequent win in the small but well-timed Wyoming caucuses on Jan. 5. Romney then dominates New Hampshire on Jan. 8, generating another media boost. In the next state, Michigan on Jan. 15, Giuliani had enjoyed a narrow lead going into January, but now Romney – with Michigan family ties and lots of momentum – overtakes him to win. Four days later, Nevada and South Carolina vote. He wins both. The other candidates have already dropped out or give up after Jan. 19. It’s a two-man race with Giuliani going into Florida on the 29th. Now that all other conservative challengers are gone, Romney unifies the anti-Giuliani vote and wins Florida. It’s over.• Giuliani the Tortoise. With all but Romney and Huckabee essentially conceding Iowa, its results are underplayed. Giuliani’s December ad campaign in New Hampshire pushes him into the mid-20s in the state – not enough to win, but enough to shave Romney’s margin and give Giuliani a Bill Clinton-like “victory” as second-place Comeback Kid. A week later, Giuliani competes in a larger state where his national reputation and cultural affinity are helpful. He wins Michigan. A week later, he wins Nevada and is competitive in South Carolina (it would probably help if Thompson, otherwise winless, takes South Carolina and weakens Romney). Finally, Giuliani gets to Florida, parts of which are essentially a suburb of Manhattan, and wins comfortably. Then comes Feb. 5. It’s over.
• Thompson the Possum. The Republican primary electorate is quirky and quarrelsome. A continued Huckabee surge in Iowa robs Romney of a convincing win, yielding a loss in the expectations game. In New Hampshire, McCain, Thompson, and Giuliani do better than expected, Romney worse. He barely ekes out a victory. In Michigan, Romney sputters and both McCain and Thompson pick up anti-Giuliani votes, yielding a narrow Giuliani win but no clear momentum. Then comes Nevada and South Carolina. With Romney’s collapse, conservatives edge towards Thompson. He comes in a strong second in Nevada and wins South Carolina. Given its historical importance, the South Carolina result gets more attention, and the media declare it a two-way race between Giuliani and Thompson. The Southerner then competes strongly in the Southern – by which I mean northern – part of Florida, upends Giuliani, and moves into Feb. 5 with momentum. It’s not quite over, but the patient sleeper has supplanted the frenetic hare.
And now the Democrats. These scenarios are easier and shorter.
• Clinton the Queen Bee. She wins Iowa. She wins New Hampshire. She wins Michigan. She wins Nevada. She wins South Carolina. She wins . . . (zzzzz)
• Obama the Bear Cub. The young upstart Obama wins Iowa narrowly, swatting Edwards aside (and out of the race) and sticking his hand brazenly into the hive. He provokes a swarm of stinging attacks by the Clinton team, which he attempts to answer with hopeful rhetoric and subtlety, despite the fact that his public face swells up, misshapen and unrecognizable. Clinton wins New Hampshire by 15 points, reaping the political benefit of bouncing back from a “loss” (see Clinton Comeback Kid reference above), then wins Michigan by 20-25 points. Obama flees to soak his head in the cool water of Lake Michigan. It’s over.
• Edwards the Skunk. He wins Iowa narrowly, briefly annoying the Clinton and Obama camps. There’s a boomlet of positive Edwards spin, but Obama is well-funded and remains in play. Unfortunately, Edwards has nowhere to go. Clinton still wins New Hampshire (see Clinton Comeback Kid reference above). Edwards comes in third in Michigan and in his native South Carolina. It’s over.
Which critter will it be?"
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Since some think Romney will be hurt by his religion...is he done?
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Republicans will now gain at least one senate seat in 08' | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 hidden)
Republicans will now gain at least one senate seat in 08' | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 hidden)
