2008 Democratic Primary Polls
posted by adamg
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik i/Opinion_polling_for_the_D emocratic_Party_(United_Sta tes)_presidential_primaries ,_2008#Graphical_Representa tion_of_Polling
http://en.wikipedia.org/wik i/Opinion_polling_for_the_D emocratic_Party_(United_Sta tes)_presidential_primaries ,_2008#Graphical_Representa tion_of_Polling
I find it interesting how strongly both Obama and Edwards are doing in those states they are not winning. In several Obama and Edwards are just behind hillary and in most they poll close to 20% each.
In order to get the nomination one needs 2600 or so delegates, which is a majority.
I think that Hillary right now dosn't have it.
She may go into the convention with 45% of the delgates and need to cut a deal with either Barak or Edwards.
But consider this: What if Obama and Edwards have 51% of delagates between them?
Then we could see a deal made with an Obama/Edwards ticket and Clinton would be cut out altogether!
Talk about exciting! The Denver convention will be the first in decades in which the convention isn't just a coronation party but where the ticket is actually decided!
Here's hoping that Hillary continues to weaken and Obama picks up momentum.
The last thing I want to see is Hillary steam roll the primaries like Kerry did in 04.
If each state is relativly close we will see more spirited campaigning and that is simply good for democracy.
Personally I would hate to see Hillary win the nomination as she is not only the weakest against Guliani, but also because her obession with political advisors and failure to admit her mistake of voting for the Iraq authorization tells me she would not govern as well as Edwards or Obama, individuals who seem more confident and less poll obsessed.
I have already given $15 to Obama and will give another $35 this quarter assuming he stays strong.
Hopefully others follow my lead and Obama outraises Hillary in Q2. This would cement his momentum and give him bigger name recognition.
If this is the case I will give $25/month to Obama, and hopefully he will continue to outraise Hillary via the netroots as well as regular sources.
Maybe the added media presence can make it a dead heat coming into the primaries and Obama's advantage of always being against Iraq can put him over the top.
If Obama can win 5+ states in the primaries and poll strong in the others he will be able to, at least become VP, and maybe form an alliance with Edwards and save the nomination from Clinto.
In terms of asthetics nothing would beat Obama, the first African American Pres candidate, (and of course good looking and charasmatic as hell) running with a charasmatic as hell and damn good looking Southern populist.
Given that Edwards and Obama poll stronger than Clinton against all Republican candidates I would say this is probably the strongest ticket we can have.
Since Gulianni will probably end up with Thomson as VP, I would say an Obama/Edwards ticket is a good shot at the whitehouse in 08.
Thoughts?
In order to get the nomination one needs 2600 or so delegates, which is a majority.
I think that Hillary right now dosn't have it.
She may go into the convention with 45% of the delgates and need to cut a deal with either Barak or Edwards.
But consider this: What if Obama and Edwards have 51% of delagates between them?
Then we could see a deal made with an Obama/Edwards ticket and Clinton would be cut out altogether!
Talk about exciting! The Denver convention will be the first in decades in which the convention isn't just a coronation party but where the ticket is actually decided!
Here's hoping that Hillary continues to weaken and Obama picks up momentum.
The last thing I want to see is Hillary steam roll the primaries like Kerry did in 04.
If each state is relativly close we will see more spirited campaigning and that is simply good for democracy.
Personally I would hate to see Hillary win the nomination as she is not only the weakest against Guliani, but also because her obession with political advisors and failure to admit her mistake of voting for the Iraq authorization tells me she would not govern as well as Edwards or Obama, individuals who seem more confident and less poll obsessed.
I have already given $15 to Obama and will give another $35 this quarter assuming he stays strong.
Hopefully others follow my lead and Obama outraises Hillary in Q2. This would cement his momentum and give him bigger name recognition.
If this is the case I will give $25/month to Obama, and hopefully he will continue to outraise Hillary via the netroots as well as regular sources.
Maybe the added media presence can make it a dead heat coming into the primaries and Obama's advantage of always being against Iraq can put him over the top.
If Obama can win 5+ states in the primaries and poll strong in the others he will be able to, at least become VP, and maybe form an alliance with Edwards and save the nomination from Clinto.
In terms of asthetics nothing would beat Obama, the first African American Pres candidate, (and of course good looking and charasmatic as hell) running with a charasmatic as hell and damn good looking Southern populist.
Given that Edwards and Obama poll stronger than Clinton against all Republican candidates I would say this is probably the strongest ticket we can have.
Since Gulianni will probably end up with Thomson as VP, I would say an Obama/Edwards ticket is a good shot at the whitehouse in 08.
Thoughts?
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2008 Democratic Primary Polls | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 hidden)
2008 Democratic Primary Polls | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 hidden)
