We Created Another Monster

     There is a growing storm brewing in Iraq that no one seems to want to talk about. Although it may be a long ways off, it is brewing none the less. The storm I speak of is the Kurdish issue in Iraq and how it will affect its neighbors, specifically Turkey.

     There is growing rhetoric and posturing on both sides concerning this volatile issue that has been simmering for a while now. It began when the US, after the first gulf war created a semi-autonomous Kurdistan region in northern Iraq. For over 10 years the Kurds have had the run of northern Iraq under the protection of the US and have been held out by this administration as a model of democracy. In our usual benevolent way we have armed and financially backed the Kurds allowing them to have free rein in that region. Now granted this region has been a model of stability for Iraq, however considering the other regions in Iraq this is not really hard to do. It’s sort of like being the valedictorian of the “special class”. Your parents are proud, but you’re not going to get a call from Harvard. By allowing the Kurds to progress autonomous of the rest of Iraq, we have created a separate entity that does not seem to have much federalist or Iraqi nationalist fervor.

     Fouad Masoun, a Kurdish legislator and deputy chairman of the parliament's constitution review committee, said: "There are some revisions which are necessary, but there are also demands by certain parties we reject, such as returning Iraq to a centralized government or reducing the powers of the Kurdistan region and other regions.

     The Kurds do have nationalistic plans, but for the Kurdistan Republic and thus the tension with Turkey. For those that don’t know, Turkey has a large minority population of Kurds who have been trying to become autonomous. The idea of having a nation of Kurdistan on its border has always been unacceptable to Turkey. The issue has continued to complicate our relationship with Turkey whom we consider an ally in the region. Turkey does not want its Kurdish population to get any ideas of becoming autonomous, which is becoming more and more difficult as the Iraqi Kurds get more autonomy. Should the Iraqi Kurds complete their plan to annex the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, a serious diplomatic crisis would ensue. So far, the administration has been able to placate the Kurds through cash and concessions. Should the situation in Iraq continue to deteriorate the Kurds being the strongest and most organized force in Iraq could basically take the city and the oil revenues that it represents. If this were to happen the war would immediately escalate into a regional conflict that Washington could no longer manage.

     The Kurds are doing their best to carve out enough oil revenue to fund their nationalistic plans. They have continued to resist having Iraq’s huge oil reserves under the authority of the central government which would go a long way to insure that Iraq remains unified. The Kurds have made their intentions known that they would prefer to have Iraq divided. They also are in favor of independent PSA’s for the oil reserves with foreign oil companies taking control and negotiated at the regional level, again to keep the oil revenues in their hands.

     Currently we have a war of words and rhetoric between the Iraqi Kurds and the Turks, but history tells us this will not continue for much longer. Rather than spending some of the “political capital” he may still have, the President and this administration are hoping that this crisis will just go away. You know the same strategy they are prescribing for that whole “global warming” thing.

     Mark it down people, we have not heard the end of this confrontation and as long as it is ignored it will continue to fester and spread. This is another of those worsening situations that invading Iraq has fostered. This will be no “Young Frankenstein” I’m afraid.

<a href="http://thedisput edtruth.blogspot.com/" >The Disputed Truth</a>
< Note to Self: When leaving Iraq don't forget to take the oil. | `breeding like mushroom' >
 Display:
I talked with friends quite a bit before the war about the potential for the Kurds to declare their own nation which would not only effect Turkey but also Iran. Iran has a large Kurdish polulation in the vicinity.
 The Kurds are the largest ethnic group without a country in the world.
If they where to declare a nation including parts of Iraq, Turkey and Iran, all hell would break loose.

by Beyondhiv on 05/21/2007 06:10:46 AM EST

As much as the Kurds would like to have their own country some day, they are currently one of the most peaceful spots in the ME.  People are actually going there for vacation.  So it is difficult to convince a group of relatively peaceful, prosperous people to throw away their daily lives and create a shit storm.

One other thing most people don't understand about the Iraqi Kurds, they are the single largest recipient of black money on the face of the planet.  That means that for 3 administrations now, the US government has been funneling massive amounts of raw cash and weapons into that area to essentially buy off the people living there.  Without a doubt, this program of paying for support and then paying for peace has been a huge success.  The Kurds respond very well to cash, and they have their own sovereign state right now.  The only possible way to screw that up would be to use their "homeland" as a staging area to wage war with Iran, or to cut them completely out of the oil revenue sharing.  The first one is much more likely than the second.

 

by libertine on 05/21/2007 07:45:47 AM EST

That the entire middle east was a very delicate ecosystem. When we invaded Iraq with no plan to preserve that ecosystem, we created a chain reaction that we will be dealing with for years to come. This is just the begining and the dominos are just starting to fall. All due to large combination of incompetence and arrogance.

This will be the George W Bush legacy.

by z1p101 on 05/21/2007 11:26:17 PM EST

 Display: