01/10/2008 12:49:43 AM EST

The Hillary Effect

posted by Cenk

The Bradley Effect is a well-known political phenomenon where voters say they will vote for a black candidate to a pollster and then turn around and vote the other way when they are alone in the voting booth.

Today, a caller on our show made a great point as to why Hillary might have won in New Hampshire despite the fact that polls showed her losing by 10 points - the Hillary Effect.

Email Print
Google Technorati del.icio.us digg reddit Facebook
She said a lot of people don't want to say they are supporting Hillary Clinton because it is an unpopular thing to say and causes harsh reactions. So, they keep quiet about their support but vote for her anyway.

Then, we received this e-mail from Dawn, another closeted Hillary supporter:

"I have been supporting Hillary, and having to apologize for it, for a year.  I can easily see myself being vague about it when asked by a pollster, but in the privacy of my voting booth I will vote  
for her enthusiastically."

There you have it. The Hillary Effect. This could easily be one of the contributing factors as to why the polls were so off in New Hampshire.

Watch The Young Turks Here

< Confirmed! Ron Paul is NOT a Racist. | WHY NO COVERAGE OF NEV, SC? >
 Display:
The Hillary Effect | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)
Pantsuits (none / 0)
I'd love to have Barack Obama at my table. Sit down dinner with the family, we'd eat dinner but everyone would bug him about politics, it would be a bit awkward because you know he'd want to rest and eat and not think about things but everyone would be nudging him. Trying to get some inside info on his game. But honestly, I think I'd be far in the majority.

I believe there was a time in America when a majority of white Americans would not want, would feel uncomfortable with or simply wouldn't ever have the opportunity to have a black man in their home, to sit at their table. Perhaps that day still exists, perhaps we haven't elevated our hearts and minds to the level where our homes are as open as our hearts and minds should be.

The reality is Barack is a rockstar, I couldn't get him to come to my home and sit down at my table and break bread with me and mine if I were the crowned prince of Siam and offered him all the tea in China. So perhaps it isn't fair to ask whether or not I'd like him, in particular to come into my home, to welcome him.

I mean what do you say with Hillary, I don't like all pant suit wearing women of power with short hair cuts who remind me vaguely of Ellen or lesbians. I don't like women in general, wasps, what? Sure you can say you hate the Clintons, you hate smug know it all democrats who fill in the blank want to reform health care or conversely are too tied to the pharmaceutical and corporate lobbyists interests, think a fucking blow job is not on par with other national security issues, or conversely can't keep her man at home and let's the republicans back into power because she was too busy trying to be co-president instead of worrying about whether to get new China patterns for Christmas. I mean there are a lot of different and often conflicting reasons they hate Hillary, but many of them are personal.

Really, are you going to say you don't want women with pantsuits in your house. God damn it, this is my house and as long as I'm providing the bread on the table and paying for the roof overhead, I refuse to allow a woman in pantsuits into my house. Maybe I'm making light of it and overlooking the hatred of feminists by a large percentage of the population.

I'm just not sure the comparison is a valid one. I do think it makes light of a history of racism in our country on some level, though I can't quite pinpoint it, just a general feeling. I think more you've got a lot of pollsters and people in the media looking really foolish right now and grasping for straws. They can't just say they were wrong and get over it. But who's fault is that anyway? Would the polls matter so much if we the people didn't constantly have to be informed and know what was going on? Would the media, the writers, the reporters, would they for once be allowed a mea culpa and forgiven for saying, hey we've got no fucking clue like the rest of you, if it weren't us in the public who want figureheads like Sam Donaldson and Ted Koppel and Tim Russert giving us the final word, being definitive, letting us know that someone, somewhere is actually in charge and knows what is going on?

by tiggerporn on 01/10/2008 05:20:21 PM EST

Why Democrats vote for Hillary. (none / 0)
Nobody likes Hillary. Everybody likes Barack. Even Republicans admire Barack.

When Democrats vote for Hillary in a primary they are saying: "I like Barack Obama. I think he would make an excellent president, but I don't think that a black man can win in the general election. Therefore, I will allow my head to overrule my heart"

That's why Democrats are lying to pollsters.

by KenTX on 01/10/2008 06:00:29 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Reply from just another no one (none / 0)

Glad you didn't go so far as to say some of your best friends are black.   

Wow Ken, glad you've really gotten away from those blanket black and white all or nothing statements. What was it the republican party was saying about why they don't like fascists, dictators and the Islamic fundamentalists? Oh wait, yes that is right, the fundamentalists look at things in too simplistic, too narrow, to close minded a fashion. I mean, not that that is either here nor there.

And I wouldn't be surprised if you agreed with the sentiment that Barack couldn't win in a general in 2008 because America isn't ready for it (gives you an out against saying that you're not ready for it) and thus want him to win his party's nomination so that your party could beat him in the election. Bet you think all his minions are just an easily swayed flock who fall for emotional pleas and will be roughshod.

But then anyone who doesn't own a loaded rifle ready to defend the border himself if need be, isn't vetted and vested, doesn't believe in that mantra of 80's style republicanism of the lost generation, that greed is good, is well, just a dreamer. 

So I take it this is the thing that everyone on talkradio now knows as gospel truth? Who did you paraphrase, Rush, with a dash of Rove and a side order of Hannity? 

I like Hillary. (Some of my best friends where pantsuits, no, really.) But then of course according to you, I'm a nobody, right? 

 

by tiggerporn on 01/10/2008 07:07:00 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Keeping it simple, (none / 0)
for the simpleminded.

by KenTX on 01/10/2008 08:56:20 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Hard to Believe (none / 0)

I really don't have a right to ask since I have pretty consistently been a prick to you, but I think a lot of people would appreciate you posting a new topic specifically why you are voting for Obama. We might disagree quite a bit but I respect your intellect and your knowledge if not always your wisdom. Fuck, I still think you're a prick (what, me inflammatory rev?) and maybe it isn't good to admit that when I'm asking a favor, but I really do think it would be an important contribution to the site. It doesn't particularly seem to me like you'd be overly swayed by an emotional plea, and so I am interested in why his campaign has convinced you to support him.


by tiggerporn on 01/11/2008 02:01:39 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Oversimplifying (none / 0)
for the over-simple.

I believe HRC would do great harm to America.

I believe Barry Obama is harmless, and a nice guy.

I believe it would be fun to watch the country governed by Cliff Huxtable.

I would love to see Barry "look forward to consulting the advice" of HRC, after he defeats her.

by KenTX on 01/11/2008 03:35:18 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Unfounded flizzum flozzum (none / 0)
There is no credible evidence to connect Barack Obama to the Jell-O Pudding Pop, zeeummmmmmm!

by OneHitKill on 01/11/2008 10:56:05 AM EST

[ Parent ]
DOH! (none / 0)

Some of my best friends where pantsuits, no, really.

Some of my best friends *wear* pantsuits, no, really.

by tiggerporn on 01/11/2008 02:05:04 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Silly Putty (none / 0)
Maybe, like you, they are just hesitant to vote for a man who has been endorsed by John Kerry.  Guilt by association.  But it's important to remember that a vote for Obama is NOT a vote for Kerry, even if Kerry has endorsed Obama.  Anyone who thinks otherwise is too impressionable.

by OneHitKill on 01/10/2008 07:55:20 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Ekaar (none / 0)
عقار ;ات السع ;ودي 7;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد السع ;ودي 7; بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات الأم ;ارا 8;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد الأم ;ارا 8; بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات مصرعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد مصر بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات الكو ;يت عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد الكو ;يت بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ت عمان ;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد عمان ; بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات قطرعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد قطر بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات البح ;رينعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد البح ;رين بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات الأر ;دنعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد الأر ;دن بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات لبنا ;نعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد لبنا ;ن بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات المغ ;ربعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد المغ ;رب بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات سوري ;اعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار في بلد سوري ;ا بجمي ;ع المد ;ن بها عقار ; نت
عقار ;ات مدين ;ة الري ;اضعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار مدين ;ة الري ;اض
عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الخر ;جعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار محاف ;ظة الخر ;ج
عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعة لمدي ;نة الري ;اضعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعه لمدي ;نه الري ;اض
عقار ;ات مكة المك ;رمةعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات مكة المك ;رمة
عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعة لمنط ;قة مكة المك ;رمةعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت التا ;بعة لمنط ;قة مكة المك ;رمة
عقار ;ات المد ;ينة المن ;ورةعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات المد ;ينة المن ;ورة
عقار ;ات مدين ;ة ينبع ;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات مدين ;ة ينبع ;
عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الطا ;ئفعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الطا ;ئف
عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعة لمنط ;قة المد ;ينة المن ;ورةعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعة لمنط ;قه المد ;ينة المن ;ورة
عقار ;ات مدين ;ة الدم ;امعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات مدين ;ة الدم ;ام
عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الخب ;رعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الخب ;ر
عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الأح ;ساءعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات محاف ;ظة الأح ;ساء
عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعة للمن ;طقة الشر ;قيةعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات المح ;افظ 5;ت الأخ ;ري التا ;بعة للمن ;طقة الشر ;قية
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة القص ;يمعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة القص ;يم
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة عسير ;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة عسير ;
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة حائل ;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة حائل ;
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة تبوك ;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة تبوك ;
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة البا ;حةعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة البا ;حة
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة الحد ;ود الشم ;الي 7;عقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة الحد ;ود الشم ;الي 7;
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة الجو ;فعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة الجو ;ف
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة جازا ;نعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة جازا ;ن
عقار ;ات منطق ;ة نجرا ;نعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات منطق ;ة نجرا ;ن
عقار ;ات ابو ظبيعقار ;ات شقق ومحل ;ات وارا ;ضي ومكا ;تب بيع وشرا ;ء وايج ;ار عقار ;ات ابو ظبي
عقار ;ات العي ;نعقار ;ات

by ali3333eg on 02/21/2009 07:15:23 AM EST

The Hillary Effect | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)
 Display: