The Problem with Betting on Football

Email Print posted by happyhominid 01/14/2008 10:35:43 PM EST

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Cenk belittles his football prognostication skills, but he's probably better than he thinks. 

Anyone who really analyses the game should be able to pick against the spread at +1-3%.  Some people can probably hit plus 5%.

Let's say Ana Kasperian has never bet a game in her life; she doesn't know Brett Favre from Ray Lewis (sorry if this isn't the case, Ana.  It's an EXAMPLE!  So I'm a little sexist.  No great crime).  She has precisely 50-50 chance of picking the game correctly.  So add any deep analysis to that and you can up your percentage slightly.

The problem here, is the juice.  With the house paying straight money on your win but taking 10% on every one of your losses, you will always end up on the downside after enough bets.

On to the Blackjack table.  It's too much fun to play it when you are in Vegas to just GIVE UP!  So moderate your play.  Sit at a $10 table, have some drinks and enjoy yourself.  Then take all the Benjamins in the back of your wallet over to The Olympic Garden for some table dances!
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Will the Bolts beat the spread against the Pats this week?
Yes 62%
No 37%
Go to gamblers anonymous 0%

Votes: 8
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The Problem with Betting on Football | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 hidden)
hmm (none / 0)
i had an uncle who literally gambled for a living.  he had a system for football betting which consistently kept him ahead.  apparently his "system"  had attracted friends in high places, because when he died, his funeral was paid in full by the head of  mathematics dept  at u of md.

either my uncle was incredibly lucky (doubtful...he died in his 40's), or there is a system for sports betting that will keep you on top.  probably something to do with statistical analysis.  the ball lands on black 9 times a row in roulette, put down a big bet on red.  y'know, something like that.

my point?  there's a system.  just like the stock market in that art house crapfest pi.

by mathcore on 01/14/2008 10:55:49 PM EST

No systems (none / 0)
Mathcore... if there were ANY systems that could consistently win, ask yourself, "would MY uncle be the only one who knew it"?  If not, how long until the "system"  started closing down the casinos?  It would only take a handful of bettors who win all the time to destroy them (assuming those bettors would naturally be "high rollers".  And why shouldn't they be?  If I KNEW I would win consistently, I'd bet every thing I could!)

Why do you think there are so many people selling "systems"?  If I had a system, I wouldn't sell it to anyone.  I wouldn't need to.  I could make a lot more money by simply USING MY SYSTEM.  It's the same principle with fortune tellers.  If someone could tell the future, they wouldn't need to charge $100 to tell it to you.  They could make billions off of it, just by knowing which stocks were going to be successful.

Let's look at your roulette example.  The ball rolls into a "black" slot 9 straight times.  It's the 10th spin of the wheel.  You have a thousand bucks sitting in your pocket.  Do you plunge?  Yes?

You have less than a 50% chance of winning.  It would be a very poor way to invest your grand.  It doesn't matter how many straight times a flipped coin comes up "heads".  If you have flipped it 19 times and they've all been heads, there is exactly a 50-50 chance it will be heads on the next flip!  The past has absolutely no effect on the future in random environments.  On a roulette wheel, it's worse than 50-50.  You have 18 black (lose) 18 red (win) and two green - zero and double zero (lose).

It's another day in paradise...

by happyhominid on 01/14/2008 11:57:43 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Word (none / 0)
The only thing that matters right now is that the Giants beat the Packers this Saturday.  No bets, please.

by jarett on 01/15/2008 11:09:53 AM EST

Favre Fantasy (none / 0)
Jarett - you actually want to destroy a fairy-tale ending to the career of Brett Favre?  Blasphemy.

It's another day in paradise...

by happyhominid on 01/15/2008 12:58:36 PM EST

[ Parent ]
The problem is (none / 0)
 a big guy named Lou who is going to break your knees if you dont cover the spread.

by MRFred on 01/15/2008 06:27:06 PM EST

MRFred, Lou LOVES YOU! (none / 0)
Just as long as you PAY when you don't make the spread...

It's another day in paradise...

by happyhominid on 01/16/2008 11:42:03 AM EST

The Problem with Betting on Football | 6 comments (6 topical, 0 hidden)
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