It's the Electoral College, Stupid

Email Print posted by Dogger 01/31/2008 02:06:40 PM EST

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Now that my first choice, Edwards, is out, I’m having decision anxiety. 

In 2006, I worked for the Harold Ford campaign, and I can assure you that racism is alive and well in this part of East Tennessee. Not enough to carry a majority, but certainly enough to change the outcome.  I base this not only the outcome, but on actual encounters with overtly racist voters, face-to-face and over the phone, by other Ford volunteers and by me.

In November, I will be voting in one of 50 statewide Presidential elections.  And when I look at the success rates of women and of African Americans in statewide elections, I get discouraged. I see a handful of female governors and Deval Patrick (who won in Massachusetts).   I see a handful of female Senators and Barak Obama (who ran against Alan Keyes). Female success rates in statewide elections look good only when compared to the abysmal success rates for African Americans.

Obviously, these calculations are pushing me towards Clinton on Super Tuesday, because I’ve had enough Republican ruin (Look at the record, look at the wreckage). At a minimum, the Democratic candidate must keep every state we won in 2004, and pick up one more.  I see states like Virginia and Ohio trending towards the Democrats when we run white men, but remain unsure as to how the choice of either Clinton or Obama affects that trend.

So my question is simple. Which states can Democrats pick up in order to win in November? And will we keep all of those we won in 2004?
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It's the Electoral College, Stupid | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 hidden)
Hey Democrats, why the long faces? (none / 0)
“So my question is simple. Which states can Democrats pick up in order to win in November? And will we keep all of those we won in 2004?”

You’re asking a very good question.
 
The GOP will nominate McCain, and he will choose a moderate like Joe Lieberman or Colin Powell as his running mate. So Republicans will be running as the Moderate/Centrist Ticket in 2008.
 
The Moderate Theme will be very attractive to independents, who are sick to death of the fighting between the two parties.

Republicans will get out the vote for McCain, because they are thoroughly disgusted by Hillary Clinton.

Democrats might sit out the election by the millions, because they don’t like Hillary Clinton either.

Blacks might even vote Republican if Hillary destroys Barack Obama, and McCain selects Colin Powell as his running mate.

Democrats had a sure thing going into the 2008 election, but they’re about to screw it up!

by KenTX on 01/31/2008 08:52:23 PM EST

Good Topic! (none / 0)
I know that Mr Fred agrees, because he might vote for John McCain over Hillary Clinton.

But where is Zippy Nostrodamus? Zippy The Diehard Democrat? Zippy The Blind Lemming?

What does Zippy's crystal ball tell him about the Clinton-McCain match up?

by KenTX on 01/31/2008 09:01:10 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You rang? (none / 0)

"I know that Mr Fred agrees, because he might vote for John McCain over Hillary Clinton."

MRFred is a Navy man. It is like a fraternity thing. I don't understand it but I can respect it.

"But where is Zippy Nostrodamus?"

Tell me Ken? Where is Gore? How is Karl Rove doing? How did the 06 election go for ya? Where is Giuliani tonight? etc.

"Zippy The Diehard Democrat?"

I'm not a die hard Democrat. I am a neo con hater and regardless of what Rush tells you there is a difference. Every "real liberal" around here has figured that out already. Why can't you?

"Zippy The Blind Lemming?"

Ken describes himself as

"I am a pro-choice, secular, multi-cultural, libertarian."

and

"I am the the in-house, on-call Wall Street Journal, Goldwater Conservative."

A libertarian or a Goldwater conservative do not say "Oh Mr president, it is OK if you grow government larger than any Liberal in history ever has. Also, it's OK if you spy on me any time you want because you have an R at the end of your name and Rush says it is OK so please throw out the constitution."

You are a neo con pull toy and make no mistake.

"What does Zippy's crystal ball tell him about the Clinton-McCain match up?"

I just did 3 days ago.  Unlike yuou I do not like typing the same thing over and over again (I'm still chucling ...blah, blah...blow job).

If you need a summary, here it is. McCain can win by a very narrow margin if everything from here on in goes perfect but Democrats hold the House and Senate. How bad the swing is in the House and Senate depends on other external forces. One ounce of bad news for the Republicans right now and they are toast.

Basically, best case scenario for the Republicans is that we have Democrats running congress with a RINO in the White House.

 

 

by z1p101 on 01/31/2008 11:41:15 PM EST

[ Parent ]
OK Ken (none / 0)

You called me out here by name, had me type a bunch of stuff and you don't have the common courtesy to even give an agree or disagree response. Very rude IMO.

Anyway, I don't know if you have been paying attention but even Rush knows that the people who could get him in no longer have the power to do so in the Republican Party. You like to think that all Republicans think with 1 mind and all have the same agenda. If that were the case, Giuliani or Romney would be winning now so lets look at the problems with Lieberman.

1.There is no way the evangelicals will support a Northern, pro choice jew being a heart beat away from being president behind a 70 year old McCain. They have already squashed Giuliani and helped defeat Romney. Republicans need their support and the evangelicals have let it be known loud and clear that they will not be ignored.

2. If you think Democrats dislike Hillary you need to listen to what they think about Lieberman. They will rally behind anything to serve up a loss for old trader Joe.

3. He is a war hawk. He has been talking about wanting to bomb Iran for months now. Last thing Americans want to hear about now that we know that the stories about the Iranian centrifuges and nuclear weapons programs were just more neo con propaganda.

Colin Powell is a much more realistic option. Not someone the evangelicals will get excited about but they won't reject him either. His pluses are that he was the only voice of reason in the White House during the run up to the war with Iraq. His minuses are that he has been bashed by Rush and the others as much as McCain. Or are those 2 pluses?

Anyway, I have a feeling that McCain has made a deal with the evangelical bosses and they will be picking his running mate. Rush has been complaining about his wing being run out of the party on a rail for 2 weeks now. If he has seen the righting on the wall, why haven't you?

by z1p101 on 02/03/2008 02:08:27 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I'm not ducking a response. (none / 0)
I just don't see all of the posts.

We used to have 7-8 regular participants, and now it's like drinking from a wide open fire hydrant.

I am probably one of the few people in this forum who grew up with a fundamentalist religious background. (Southern Baptist) When you guys talk about "evangelicals" it makes me laugh, because you don't know what you're talking about. (I mean the entire forum, not just Zippy.)

The first lesson is that fundamentalist, born-again, evangelicals love Jews. Jesus was a Jew, and the Bible says that the Jews are God's Chosen People. 

Born Agains would have no problem with Lieberman.

If I were advising John McCain, I would tell him to select a Democrat as his running mate. (Evan Byhe might be better than Lieberman.) I would advise him to make bipartisanship the primary buzzword in his campaign. I would get him to promote frequent joint conferences with Democrat and GOP congressional leaders to map out strategy for forward progress.

The voters are sick of partisanship and fighting. They want change.

John McCain should run as the Change Candidate, and paint Hillary as the candidate of the 1990s. 

by KenTX on 02/04/2008 01:47:24 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Ahh (none / 0)

So that is the way it is.

"I am probably one of the few people in this forum who grew up with a fundamentalist religious background. (Southern Baptist) When you guys talk about "evangelicals" it makes me laugh, because you don't know what you're talking about. (I mean the entire forum, not just Zippy.)"

I remember when you were running on about how Giuliani was going to get the nod and everyone said "Ken, the evangelicals will not support him". Then you jumped on the Romney band wagon and everyone here (not just Zippy) told you "Ken, the evangelicals will not support him". Using your intimate knowledge of evangelicals to make predictions has given you an 0 and 2 record.

"Born Agains would have no problem with Lieberman."

Lets see what Jerry Falwell himself has to say.

"Again, I do not follow this teaching of “dual covenant” theology and I believe it runs counter to the Gospel.

...

I want to reaffirm that I am a Zionist in terms of Israel’s entitlement to its homeland. I continue to pray daily for the peace of Jerusalem, as the Bible instructs Christians to do. ...


However, I simply cannot alter my deeply-held belief in the exclusivity of salvation through the Gospel of Christ for the sake of political or theological expediency."

Translation, jews are OK as far as heathens go, but they are still going to hell. If you are getting hung up on the Jewish thing try this. There is no way the evangelicals will support a non Christian, pro choice politician from the Northeast. Is that better? Personally I would love it if McCain chose Lieberman.

"If I were advising John McCain, I would tell him to select a Democrat as his running mate. (Evan Byhe might be better than Lieberman.)"

Even if you could convince the powers that be in the Republican Party to go for this, why would any Democrat want to be McCain's VP? Vice President is a pretty powerless position unless the President invites you into his inner circle. Cheney is the exception and not the norm. The Democrat VP would be put in a box marked "don't open till 2012".

Ken, you are really coming up with some hair brained schemes here and I am starting to worry. 

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 12:03:48 AM EST

[ Parent ]
time for school (none / 0)
I’m offering two articles from credible sources that might help you come up to speed.

New York Daily News

Wall Street Journal

I invite you to keep running your mouth on a subject that you clearly know nothing about. I don’t care what you learned about Southern Baptists when you were growing up in New Jersey. You don’t have the first clue.

Just keep yammering like a magpie on this issue, and I'll respond with factual information.

by KenTX on 02/05/2008 01:13:15 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Oh yea (none / 0)

It says Lieberman endorsed McCain and there is no mention of having Lieberman as a running mate. Big difference.

Oh please, please let Ken have his wish and let McCain choose Lieberman as a running mate. Because his bid for presidency is dead the next day. I have been right on my predictions about how evangelicals will react twice already with Giuliani and Romney.

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 01:29:26 AM EST

[ Parent ]
One more thing (none / 0)

How would Lieberman's political career gone if he was running for office in one of those states that are dominated by the Southern Baptists that you know so much about? I thought so.

"Just keep yammering like a magpie on this issue, and I'll respond with factual information."

Interesting. For the first time ever Ken wants to talk about facts. Let's look at the facts.

""It has been reported," said Fox, that "your grandfather Felix, whom you were given your middle name for, was Jewish. Could you please tell us whether your forebears include Jews and, if so, at which point Jewish identity might have ended?"

Allen recoiled as if he had been struck. His supporters in the audience booed and hissed."

It doesn't matter if you grew up in New Jersey or Mississippi because you know it when you see it and I recognize the "We will support those people over there as long as they stay over there" mindset. 

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 02:05:09 AM EST

[ Parent ]
it's like spoon feeding a baby bird (none / 0)
“It says Lieberman endorsed McCain and there is no mention of having Lieberman as a running mate. Big difference.”

McCain remains coy on the issue, preferring to keep his options open.

“How would Lieberman's political career gone if he was running for office in one of those states that are dominated by the Southern Baptists that you know so much about?”

I suppose I have to force you to read the article so you can understand what Southern Baptists think about Joe Lieberman.

Yankees labor under the common misconception that Southerners dislike Jews, when just the opposite is true.

It's true that the Lieberman endorsement will help McCain - but with conservatives more than independents. According to a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll released last week, Lieberman's endorsement makes only 15% of independents more likely to vote for McCain, yet it persuades 25% of Republicans. It's not Lieberman the maverick or moderate who helps McCain the most; it's Lieberman the moralist.

The Connecticut senator - who, besides his hawkish stance on foreign policy, continues to caucus with Democrats - has for several years now been a regular fixture on conservative talk radio. In 1998, he became a hero to the right wing for openly denouncing Bill Clinton's misconduct. Just as Lieberman's obvious comfort talking about religious faith irritates many on the left, it endears him to evangelical Christians, as does his campaign against violence and sex in movies and video games.

Why is this distinction - Lieberman's appeal to conservatives more than independents - so important now? Because McCain has a famously rocky relationship with the Christian right. If he doesn't start smoothing it out now, he cannot win the nomination. If, on the other hand, he does start to repair the rift, he can string together a broad Republican coalition and continue his improbable comeback.

Many Christian conservatives will never forgive McCain for denouncing Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson as "agents of intolerance" - or for going off the Republican reservation (on immigration, taxes and torture) with such fierceness and frequency.

Yes, McCain will once again need independent support in New Hampshire, but in the marathon to the nomination, religious conservatives are a far more important constituency - and Lieberman is the first brick in building a bridge back to them. After the New Hampshire primary, expect to see McCain trotting Lieberman out in South Carolina and other primary states with large numbers of Southern evangelicals.
When all is said and done, should McCain somehow win the Republican nomination, he will have done so on the back of evangelical Christian support, and he'll have, at least in part, an Orthodox Jew from Connecticut to thank.

by KenTX on 02/05/2008 02:22:58 AM EST

[ Parent ]
No, I read it. (none / 0)

You are a little slow on the up take so let me explain it to you. Al Sharpton endorsing Obama is a good thing for Obama. Obama choosing Al as a running mate is a bad thing for Obama. See how it works?

Likewise, some pro choice jew from Connecticut endorsing McCain is a good thing. That same pro life jew being a heart beat away from running the country is a bad thing.

Ken, pay attention, other than Florida, Lieberman would have no shot as a politician in the south. How many successful jewish politicians (pre civil war) do you have down there.

Regardless, I am now rooting for McCain to choose Lieberman and I hope you get your wish.

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 02:40:15 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Quick correction (none / 0)
That same pro choice jew being a heart beat away from running the country is a bad thing.

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 02:42:41 AM EST

[ Parent ]
OOPS (none / 0)

One more correction.

Ken, pay attention, other than Florida, Lieberman would have no shot as a politician in the south. How many successful jewish politicians (not pre civil war) do you have down there.

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 03:03:39 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Oh yea (none / 0)

Lets have a little insight on these people that Ken knows so well.

Link. 

Sorry, this is my first you tube link and I just couldn't help myself. 

by z1p101 on 02/05/2008 02:54:12 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Like spoon feeding a Limbaugh retard (none / 0)

Super Tuesday is over and Huckabee cleaned up in the south.

I guess the evangelicals that you know so much about did not catch the New York Daily News or the Wall Street Journal articles you linked to.

The evangelicals sent a message loud and clear. "We want one of our own representing us". 

by z1p101 on 02/06/2008 02:47:32 AM EST

[ Parent ]
New Yorker Interprets Southern-Speak (none / 0)
The evangelicals sent a message loud and clear. "If you don’t select the Republican with 190 measly delegates as your VP running mate, we southerners are going to vote for the Socialist Democrat black guy from Illinois.”

Well no, that's not really what they said. That's just a feeble attempt from a shut-in fool who is trapped in an economically disadvantaged area of the rust belt.

The November electoral contest comes down to this question: Can Republicans win more blue states than Democrats win red states? The battle will be fought in your backyard, not mine.

by KenTX on 02/06/2008 07:28:07 AM EST

[ Parent ]
OUCH (none / 0)

A shut in fool? Ken, you really hurt me this time.

Anyway, if you do not know what that means then I will explain it to you. This is based on the premise that Huckleberry would have no chance to win in November.

The religious right sent a message last night and the message is.....

  •  they would rather stick to their values and loose in November rather than hold there nose and vote for someone who can win.
  • they do not see all that much difference between McCain and Hillary.
  • they are willing to stay home in November.
  • McCain needs to make a choice. Move closer to the right and loose swing voters or stay where he is and risk loosing the religious vote to the none of the above slot.
  • Lieberman did not make a damn bit of difference, just like I said.
  • They don't care about KenTX's tax cuts, their motivations are different.
  • KenTX does not even know his own people but he wants to tell me about mine.

Basically, they are willing to stick to their guns and loose. They do not have the same "all that matters is that the the guy with the R behind his name wins" philosophy that you do. After all, they were willing to put up a 3rd party candidate if Giuliani won and I believe them. How far to the right he will have to move with his VP choice will depend on Hillary or Obama.

Last night your hair brained scheme about having McCain choose a lib as a running mate died. 

by z1p101 on 02/06/2008 12:27:37 PM EST

[ Parent ]
start worrying about YOUR candidate (none / 0)
"They do not see all that much difference between McCain and Hillary."

In case you haven't heard, Republicans don't like Hillary Clinton.  

In case you haven't heard, Independents don't like Hillary Clinton. 

In case you haven't heard, Democrats don't like Hillary Clinton. 

John McCain will soon lock up the GOP nomination. Then he can sit back and watch Hillary and Obama spend hundreds of millions of dollars, fighting each other all the way until September.

Democrats will come out of the floor fight at the brokered convention as a divided party, with a candidate that the majority of America hates.

You have plenty to worry about, so don't worry about John McCain.

by KenTX on 02/06/2008 06:52:34 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Bwahahahahahahahahah! (none / 0)

Colin Powell would be monumentally stupid to get involved.   It would open him up to the public excoriation he so richly deserves.  He would have to have lot of nerve to show his face in politics again.

As for Joe Lieberman, don't make me laugh.  Just imagine if those two ended up winning, we'd be hearing in the 2012 state of the union address about how the 5th surge is sure to be the answer to the problem of violence in Iraq.

by bfaul on 01/31/2008 09:38:24 PM EST

[ Parent ]
On McCain (none / 0)

I will say this about McCain, and Cenk echoed my feelings about this today - That's why I watch TYT - I think he is probably the most moderate of the Republican candidates in spite of his blatant pandering to the right side of the base in the last 4 years.  This is the reason that the waterboy can't stand him. 

If McCain is nominated that will be a bigtime repudiation of the neocon half of the right-wing.  I think that will signal the beginning of a tapering of the waterboy's influence in the national discourse. 

But don't mistake what I'm saying as indicating I would vote for him over the two possible Democrats.  I think either of them would be a better choice. 

People love to bash on Hillary but I actually believe she would be a better commander-in-chief of the military than McCain would.  She's the smartest of all the candidates that have run this year.  Kennedy demonstrated that anyone can fuck up as commander-in-chief, as he did when he gave approval to the bay-of-pigs fiasco, but he also demonstrated how crucial it is to have brains when you react militarily to the most critical situations.  If he had made the wrong move during the Cuban Missile Crisis we wouldn't be having this conversation. 

by bfaul on 01/31/2008 10:42:17 PM EST

[ Parent ]
best versus worst (none / 0)
"But don't mistake what I'm saying as indicating I would vote for him over the two possible Democrats."

Perhaps you wouldn't vote for him, but given the choice between McCain and Hillary, millions of idependents will go for McCain.

Republicans are offering our best candidate, while Democrats are offering their worst.

by KenTX on 01/31/2008 11:07:07 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You listen (none / 0)

to too much Limbaugh. People do hate Hillary as much as you think. Before you make the same goofy link you what people here think of her I went out to some Republican/conservative message boards to see what they are saying about McCain. I do not need to tell you what I found but the scary part is that  most of them make more sense to me than you or bias does. Well, most people here make more sense to me also.

Anyway, it is the giant douche vs. the turd sandwich scenario here and the hinge pin is how badly Bush screws up from here on out.

by z1p101 on 02/01/2008 12:14:22 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Then it's a sure bet! (none / 0)

Bush has time to screw up big time at least a hundred (thousand?) more times.  Hell, he screws up everytime he speaks in public!  By your logic, then, the Democrats are sure to win.

by Juarez Traveller on 02/01/2008 11:05:17 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Hey (none / 0)

It all depends on if you believe that people have an infinite number of times they can actually fuck up. If they don't then Bush is plum out.

by z1p101 on 02/01/2008 11:59:52 AM EST

[ Parent ]
best versus worst? (none / 0)
"Republicans are offering our best candidate, while Democrats are offering their worst."

The first part is true, but the second part is debatable. Even if that were accurate, our worst is so much better than your best.

What stands between our candidates and the White House? Racism and sexism. In another word, ignorance.

What barriers do McCain and Romney face? The record and the wreckage. In other words, the truth.

by Dogger on 02/01/2008 10:36:50 AM EST

[ Parent ]
yes and no (none / 0)

I don't know about that.  I'm seeing some signs that people are beginning to feel that the White Christian Male has had his chance and run his course.  I'm a little sick of white male presidents myself. 

If it comes down to racism or sexism then who are we really?  

On the other hand, I can tell you that after Katrina the racism here was running as an ugly undercurrent just beneath the surface.  White people were willing, even eager, to believe the most stupid and ridiculous things about those people in the Superdome.  They passed around emails that were shown to be outright lies and promoted them as gospel truth.  It was pretty revealing.

Back on the other side of the coin, I find that such racism is directed mostly against certain particular stereotypes.  Obama does not fit this stereotype and I think only a relatively small percentage of  racists direct their bigotry at all blacks.

I admit I could be completely wrong about that, but I'm not going to support a candidate I don't think is as competent just because he's white. 

I think the two remaining Democrats are smarter by a significant margin than either of their possible opponents.  I'm hoping people are going to be looking for someone with more upstairs this time.

by bfaul on 01/31/2008 10:11:35 PM EST

It's the Electoral College, Stupid | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 hidden)
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