01/31/2008 02:06:40 PM EST

It's the Electoral College, Stupid

posted by Dogger

Now that my first choice, Edwards, is out, I’m having decision anxiety. 

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In 2006, I worked for the Harold Ford campaign, and I can assure you that racism is alive and well in this part of East Tennessee. Not enough to carry a majority, but certainly enough to change the outcome.  I base this not only the outcome, but on actual encounters with overtly racist voters, face-to-face and over the phone, by other Ford volunteers and by me.

In November, I will be voting in one of 50 statewide Presidential elections.  And when I look at the success rates of women and of African Americans in statewide elections, I get discouraged. I see a handful of female governors and Deval Patrick (who won in Massachusetts).   I see a handful of female Senators and Barak Obama (who ran against Alan Keyes). Female success rates in statewide elections look good only when compared to the abysmal success rates for African Americans.

Obviously, these calculations are pushing me towards Clinton on Super Tuesday, because I’ve had enough Republican ruin (Look at the record, look at the wreckage). At a minimum, the Democratic candidate must keep every state we won in 2004, and pick up one more.  I see states like Virginia and Ohio trending towards the Democrats when we run white men, but remain unsure as to how the choice of either Clinton or Obama affects that trend.

So my question is simple. Which states can Democrats pick up in order to win in November? And will we keep all of those we won in 2004?
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It's the Electoral College, Stupid | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 hidden)
Bwahahahahahahahahah! (none / 0)

Colin Powell would be monumentally stupid to get involved.   It would open him up to the public excoriation he so richly deserves.  He would have to have lot of nerve to show his face in politics again.

As for Joe Lieberman, don't make me laugh.  Just imagine if those two ended up winning, we'd be hearing in the 2012 state of the union address about how the 5th surge is sure to be the answer to the problem of violence in Iraq.

by bfaul on 01/31/2008 09:38:24 PM EST

On McCain (none / 0)

I will say this about McCain, and Cenk echoed my feelings about this today - That's why I watch TYT - I think he is probably the most moderate of the Republican candidates in spite of his blatant pandering to the right side of the base in the last 4 years.  This is the reason that the waterboy can't stand him. 

If McCain is nominated that will be a bigtime repudiation of the neocon half of the right-wing.  I think that will signal the beginning of a tapering of the waterboy's influence in the national discourse. 

But don't mistake what I'm saying as indicating I would vote for him over the two possible Democrats.  I think either of them would be a better choice. 

People love to bash on Hillary but I actually believe she would be a better commander-in-chief of the military than McCain would.  She's the smartest of all the candidates that have run this year.  Kennedy demonstrated that anyone can fuck up as commander-in-chief, as he did when he gave approval to the bay-of-pigs fiasco, but he also demonstrated how crucial it is to have brains when you react militarily to the most critical situations.  If he had made the wrong move during the Cuban Missile Crisis we wouldn't be having this conversation. 

by bfaul on 01/31/2008 10:42:17 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You listen (none / 0)

to too much Limbaugh. People do hate Hillary as much as you think. Before you make the same goofy link you what people here think of her I went out to some Republican/conservative message boards to see what they are saying about McCain. I do not need to tell you what I found but the scary part is that  most of them make more sense to me than you or bias does. Well, most people here make more sense to me also.

Anyway, it is the giant douche vs. the turd sandwich scenario here and the hinge pin is how badly Bush screws up from here on out.

by z1p101 on 02/01/2008 12:14:22 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Then it's a sure bet! (none / 0)

Bush has time to screw up big time at least a hundred (thousand?) more times.  Hell, he screws up everytime he speaks in public!  By your logic, then, the Democrats are sure to win.

by Juarez Traveller on 02/01/2008 11:05:17 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Hey (none / 0)

It all depends on if you believe that people have an infinite number of times they can actually fuck up. If they don't then Bush is plum out.

by z1p101 on 02/01/2008 11:59:52 AM EST

[ Parent ]
best versus worst? (none / 0)
"Republicans are offering our best candidate, while Democrats are offering their worst."

The first part is true, but the second part is debatable. Even if that were accurate, our worst is so much better than your best.

What stands between our candidates and the White House? Racism and sexism. In another word, ignorance.

What barriers do McCain and Romney face? The record and the wreckage. In other words, the truth.

by Dogger on 02/01/2008 10:36:50 AM EST

[ Parent ]
yes and no (none / 0)

I don't know about that.  I'm seeing some signs that people are beginning to feel that the White Christian Male has had his chance and run his course.  I'm a little sick of white male presidents myself. 

If it comes down to racism or sexism then who are we really?  

On the other hand, I can tell you that after Katrina the racism here was running as an ugly undercurrent just beneath the surface.  White people were willing, even eager, to believe the most stupid and ridiculous things about those people in the Superdome.  They passed around emails that were shown to be outright lies and promoted them as gospel truth.  It was pretty revealing.

Back on the other side of the coin, I find that such racism is directed mostly against certain particular stereotypes.  Obama does not fit this stereotype and I think only a relatively small percentage of  racists direct their bigotry at all blacks.

I admit I could be completely wrong about that, but I'm not going to support a candidate I don't think is as competent just because he's white. 

I think the two remaining Democrats are smarter by a significant margin than either of their possible opponents.  I'm hoping people are going to be looking for someone with more upstairs this time.

by bfaul on 01/31/2008 10:11:35 PM EST

It's the Electoral College, Stupid | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 hidden)
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