The Young Turks

McCain is walking a fine line and I think it might be a better strategy than we give him credit for.  I hope Obama still considers McCain and his campaign a worthy opponent, otherwise we could be in for a nasty surprise.

Here's the thing.  He dropped the Ayers-bomb and all the divisive bombs 4 weeks before 11/4.  There's a sense of urgency, but not immediacy, around the election.  This helped to rally the Republican base of idiots, racists, mobs, and otherwise intolerant/intolerable people who are easily swayed by character assassination.  But there are still a few more news cycles before the election, and I think McCain is going to try to present a fiercely moderate, respectful image like the link you showed.

Now, 2-3 weeks before the election, I expect to see more of this behavior from McCain.  He's going to tell his base to tone it down, that they should be respectful, that he's attacking Obama on the issues.  Note that he's just going to SAY he wants to talk about the issues.  Re: Bush's strategy of "meta-presidency" - http://www.fatmixx.com/2007 /10/10/bush-the-meta-presid ent/

That's his position.  He's not actually going to talk about the issues, because then he'll lose.  He just wants to talk about talking about the issues.  This way, he'll pick up the independents who vote primarily based on character and image.  He lost them over these past couple media cycles because he's been doddering and inciting violence and his campaign has looked scary.  However, (and this is the lynchpin of his strategy) he's hoping that he'll regain them within the next couple weeks and narrow the race again.  And this is where the Obama strategy has to keep targeting.  They have to keep Obama looking presidential, show pictures of awful Palin rallies and attribute them to "the McCain-Palin ticket" and keep being conciliatory only where McCain deserves it.  Maybe point out that McCain never actually talks about the issues, he only says he's going to talk about them, and give that a zing of attack in a way that gets media attention.  And, of course, keep up the attack on the issues that matter most - jobs, health care, energy, foreign policy.

Obama has to target undecided voters now.  If people are undecided at this point, either they haven't been paying attention or they don't really care about national issues, or they don't understand what's at stake.  People already in his camp aren't likely to switch sides this late in the game.  He could, however, pick up a lot of people from McCain's camp who are appalled at McCain's hypocrisy, and even, dare I say, flip-flopping.  Obama's campaign should focus on that, as well.

Meanwhile, Palin's probably going to keep rallying the base with red-meat speeches designed to stoke intolerance, ignorance, and mob excitement about voting in Repubs, so they turn out in droves to keep a black man from being elected.  Luckily those people have a majority in solidly red states, so that strategy won't work out so well.  I hear she was sent to West Virginia, which I think is a stupid tactic on the part of the McCain campaign, but cautious too.  They're counting on Youtube and the MSM to spread her hatred to ignorant right-wingers in swing states so she doesn't have to go there herself.

The McCain campaign doesn't want to run the risk of having one of her red-meat speeches flop in a swing state where people are more likely to care about the issues.  Hell, if she comes to Colorado near where I live, I'm considering going to a rally and heckling her, yelling challenges to talk about things that matter.  And I'm a pretty quiet guy by nature.  Just think about what real issue firebrands in swing states could do.

So yeah, I think Obama's definitely on top, but don't underestimate McCain.  I think plenty of Independents and Repubs who have been switching their allegiance to Obama (and giving him this boost in the polls) still desperately want to believe in McCain.  He's a war hero and for the past 25 years before this disastrous campaign he's been one of the few politicians with demonstrable integrity and favorable, moderate image.  By risking boos by telling his base to be reasonable and stop shouting for blood, he's showing a certain steel that I think people have missed.  If he keeps this up he stands a good chance of winning people back.  Obama has to make sure that doesn't happen.