The Real Cause of the Meltdown...with out the Spin or Racism.

Contrary to spin and racially tinged hysteria, the meltdown is actually a complex story.

The new spin is Freddy and Fanny where the culprits, in a desperate attempt to somehow link Obama to the crisis through his skin color and a few contributions from the Freddy and Fanny CEOs.
Unfortunately for the spin-meisters almost none of the $1.5 trillion of cratering subprime mortgages were backed by Fannie or Freddie. Fannie and Freddie, which wouldn't accept crazy floating rate loans, which required income verification and minimum down payments. (Aaron Pressman , Bussiness Week September 26 2008)

Composition of the 15.5 trillion US dollar credit derivatives in the United States for the second quarter of 2008. Green tints indicate derivatives for Prime or Investment Grade assets, and red, pink and orange indicate sub-prime asset derivatives. The numbers followed by "Y" indicate the years until maturity.
Reality of Reagan Inspired Deregulation Mania
A million or so sub-prime borrowers borrowed 100% of the value of their house to finance the purchase. These are borrowers with very poor credit ratings (hence the term subprime).
The story continues with our fine upstanding and deregulated friends : the mortgage lenders empowered by Phil "Whiner " Gramm's push to lift Depression era restrictions on banks and investment firm.
Once unencumbered by the law of the land they were free to package the loans into bonds called Mortgage-Backed Securities, which they then sold to investment banks. Hence, they did not have to worry about default risks and could make those loans freely and collect large incomes on fees and commissions while moving the risk to Wall street.
It should be no surprise then that selling the MBS is not easy;the credit quality is poor or non-investment grade. This means many professional managed funds could not buy them. They are a lot like financial WMD.
However, not letting a little thing like ethics stop them the investment bankers took the MBS and combined them with other higher grade bonds and sold off the entire package. These packages are known as Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs).
Ponzi Was a Republican.
A CDO could have 80% investment grade bonds (low risk), 10% mezzanine (middle risk) and 10% equity (high risk MBS).
The CDOs were structured to qualify as investment grade and were far easier to sell.
Once the original lenders has sold their MBS' , they had tons of cash that they then loaned to new subprime borrowers, starting the cycle anew. That added fuel to the hot housing market and, more subprime loans.
Heres the fun part,remember the CDOs? Investment banks set up a hedge funds to "buy over" the CDOs.
With the rise of housing prices the market value of the CDOs increased (significantly) as the risk of subprime borrowers defaulting decreased. Plus...the CDO price is easy to manipulate as there is not an " open market" with the requisite invisible hand for the CDOs. This leads to a boost in the returns of the hedge funds, which attracts more investors’ funds.
The hedge fund then goes to another bank to borrow more money using its “high- performing” CDOs as collateral. The exposure has thus spread to the lending bank holding the CDOs as collateral. The hedge fund buys more CDOs and the money is ultimately channeled down to mortgage lenders who will make... wait for it...
Yep..you guessed it more subprime loans, thus pushing housing prices higher.
At Bear Stearns its two funds were leveraged about 5 times and 15 times respectively. ie $1 of investor funds holding $5 of CDOs.
Things started to unfold when housing prices dropped. The collateral gets marked down, the lender bank wants their money back but the hedge fund has all its money tied up in CDOs.
Since the CDO market is unregulated the Fed does not know for sure who are the rest of the people/funds institutions around the world holding these CDOs and the degree of exposure.
But wait theres more! Synthetic CDOs and a free set of Shamtastic Towels...
The investment banks can manage the CDO by holding to them but without holding on to the default risk.
Enter the the Credit Default Swap (CDS).
The CDS is essentially an insurance policy that a person takes out to cover himself for loan default.
If they were called insurance, they would be regulated and overseen by Federal and State agencies. No, rather they were called Credit Default Swaps to avoid all those pesky laws and things...
The holder of the CDO, the investment banks, pays a premium to another investment institution for underwriting the risks of the home loans defaulting.
The buyer of the CDS (or synthetic CDO) gets an income stream (the insurance premiums) without even putting up any cash! Just like Amway!
This is more attractive than a legal, old fashioned bond. The holder is paid for accepting risk and not lending money. Of course, if the loans default, his exposure will be high.
Buying the Brooklyn Bridge.
Investment banks then realized that they could sell such CDS even if they were not holding on to the CDOs!
So, they started to sell insurance (CDS) on the shittiest CDOs around. There were many buyers as fund managers were all desperate for yield.
As it is now, banks now will not to lend money to each other as they don’t know what the other bank’s exposure is. The liquidity crisis is just beginning.
So who is responsible? Look no further than Mr De-Regulation! Since Fanny and Freddies problems were a very small part of this mess its interesting they have become the end all be all cause..rather than what they were..caught in a bubble market driven by rising house prices. But MaCain advisor's made some cash here too:
Freddie Mac hired Mark Buse as a lobbyist. Buse was a longtime confidant of Sen. John McCain, and at the time, Freddie Mac feared that the senator was too outspoken on executive pay, an issue of intense concern for the highly-compensated chiefs at Freddie. Buse is now chief of staff at McCain's Senate office. In 2003, Buse reportedly was given credit inside Freddie when McCain, as chairman of the commerce committee, declined to pursue legislation addressing Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, another mortgage giant, saying that the panel lacked jurisdiction. AND:
Aquiles Suarez, listed as an economic adviser to the McCain campaign in a July 2007 McCain press release, was formerly the director of government and industry relations for Fannie Mae. The Senate Lobbying Database says Suarez oversaw the lending giant's $47,510,000 lobbying campaign from 2003 to 2006.According to the Senate Lobbying Database, the lobbying firm of Charlie Black, one of McCain's top aides, made at least $820,000 working for Freddie Mac from 1999 to 2004.
The McCain campaign's vice-chair Wayne Berman and its congressional liaison John Green made $1.14 million working on behalf of Fannie Mae for lobbying firm Ogilvy Government Relations.Green made an additional $180,000 from Freddie Mac.
Arther B. Culvahouse Jr. the VP vetter who helped John McCain select Sarah Palin, earned $80,000 from Fannie Mae in 2003 and 2004, while working for lobbying and law firm O'Melveny & Myers LLP.
In addition, Politico reports that at least 20 McCain fundraisers have lobbied for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, pocketing at least $12.3 million over the last nine years.
Campaign chairman, Rick Davis was head of the Homeownership Alliance, a lobbying association that included Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, real estate agents, homebuilders, and non-profits. According to Politico, the organization opposed congressional attempts at regulation of Fannie and Freddie, along the lines of what John McCain is currently proposing. In his capacity of president of the group, Davis went on record in 2003 and insisted that no further reform of the lenders was necessary, in contradiction to his current boss's sentiments. "[Fannie and Freddie] are subject to an innovative and stringent risk-based capital stress test," Davis wrote. "The toughest in the financial services
What a maverick!
Parts of this article where originally published by Mr.Martin Lee , Intelligent Investor Club, with thanks... the WSJ, The Economist and my 401 K statement.| < SWEET!!! My show got it's first troll!!! | Bush handing Obama a $2,000,000,000,000 deficit. > |