10/05/2008 10:13:47 PM EST

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado

posted by Cenk

I think some of you know this already, but for some reason this made it crystal clear in my head. If Obama hangs on to all the Kerry states, as it looks like he is easily going to do now, he only needs three states to win -- Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

Here is the situation with those:

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Iowa is over already. He's won there, unless everything in the world changes, in which case he's lost in some other dramatic, unexpected way.

That leaves Colorado and New Mexico. He has a very solid lead in New Mexico and is doing great in Colorado.

After that Nevada, Virginia, Ohio, Florida, etc. are all icing on the cake. If he gets them great, if he doesn't, no problem at all.

Here is another way to look at it. Assuming for a second that unless something crazy happens, Obama will almost certainly win Iowa and New Mexico. That means he only needs one of these states: Colorado, Ohio, Florida or Virginia.

There are other combinations, too, of course. But the point is if you look at it this way, this looks like almost too steep a hill for McCain to climb even if things were going well. And they definitely aren't.

This thing is teetering on the edge of being over.

Update -- It turns out Karl Rove agrees with me. Check the bottom of this post out.

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Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 hidden)
There are too many ways for Obama to win, but ... (none / 0)

Assume that the battleground states are NV, CO, IN, OH, NH, VI, NC, and FL.
 
If Obama takes Minnesota (which seems likely despite some polls), then he has 7 combinations of the remaining states that put him over, and McCain has only two, given that McCain must then win CO, IN, OH, VA, NC, and FL.

Note that those are all red states, given the last election.

New Hampshire is almost irrelevant.&nbs p; Obama needs only one of NV, CO, IN, OH, VA, NC, or FL to win.

New Hampshire is only relevant if Obama loses all of those red states but picks up both possible Electoral vote splits in Nebraska and Maine.  He can win that way, too.

My point is that there are too many scenarios by which Obama can win, and too few by which McCain can win.  In addition, Obama is crushing McCain in the national polls, and no one has any idea how many likely voters there really are except that it's sure to be more than what we think it is.

At this point, the Republicans would have to disenfranchise 3% to 7% of the voters in at least four states to turn the tide of probability in their direction.  But it seemed to take all they had to do Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004.  Four states seems out of their range, even given that Indiana and North Carolina should be relatively easy to turn using criminal methods.

Obama will be the next President.  Just get out there and keep knocking on doors.  If there is any doubt in the Electoral college, we want there to be no doubt in the popular vote.  That's the only way to make certain that the Supreme Court, headed by the dictator-wanna-be John "Unitary Authority" Robert s, will keep their filthy hands off the election.


by EveningStarNM on 10/05/2008 11:42:02 PM EST

Oops. (none / 0)

You can discount what I said about Maine and New Hampshire.  Obama will take Maine.

The 9 possible winnin g outcomes are:

1) FL
2) OH
3) NC
4) VA
5) IN
6) CO + NV
7) CO + NH
8) CO + NE(1)
9) NV + NE(1) + NH

McCain, on the other hand, has only two ways to win:

1) FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, CO, NV
2) FL, OH, NC, VA, IN, CO, NH

It ain't gonna happen.



by EveningStarNM on 10/05/2008 11:50:36 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Good News from Colorado (none / 0)
Colorado is definately going to Obama. Granted, I live in Denver, but I personally know of 3 conservates that are voting for Obama that have never voted for a Democrat before. I have personally convinced two people to vote for Obama by just presenting the facts and I am currently working on a third. My wife and I just got back from Western Colorado (McCain Country) and there were a suprising amount of Obama signs on driveways for ranches and bumber stickers on pickup trucks. I have not recieved a single call or knock on the door from the McCain Campaign and im a registered independant. On the other hand I have been contacted by Obama people three or four times. Its over in Colorado, we are definately going blue! 

by ethanmorton on 10/06/2008 10:01:03 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Check your polls again. (none / 0)

Colorado is very tight, and electoral-vote.com has it leaning to McCain today.  The latest poll, by the Denver Post, shows it neck-and-neck.  But people were celebrating last week when to polls that have been consistent outliers, CNN/Time and Insider Advantage/Poll Position, showed Obama ahead but still inside the margin of error.

Colorado is by no means a done deal.

by EveningStarNM on 10/06/2008 10:13:04 AM EST

[ Parent ]
The polling data supports this (none / 0)
I am not sure what the hell the McCain campaign is doing but Obama is now flipping Colorado, New Mexico and Iowa which means McCain must get one of those back or steal a blue state somewhere.  He gave up on Michigan and Pennsylvania is looking bad for him.  I don't know what the idea is here.  Putting all his eggs in Minnesota or Wisconsin I guess?  Neither seem likely.

by ProfRich on 10/06/2008 10:45:47 AM EST

[ Parent ]
I live in Rio Rancho (none / 0)
Just wanted to chime in and say that I am a true Obama supporter from the Albuquerque/Rio Rancho area.

Albuquerque will decide the state for Obama. Any town North of Albuquerque (Espanola, Santa Fe, Taos) will vote Obama. South of Albuquerque (Socorro, T or C, Las Cruces) will vote for McCain. I was in the South of New Mexico for the Aggie-Lobo game (im an Aggie) and it was INFESTED with McCain signs, and Obama supporters were few and far in between. Kerry lost there in 2004.

Albuquerque is a healthy mix of both kinds of supporters with a small advantage for Obama.

Bernalillo County will decide the state.

by DutchMasta on 10/07/2008 12:09:04 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Hey! Don't Insult Las Cruces! (none / 0)

We're going for Obama bigtime!  YYYAAAaaaaAAAAYYY!

by EveningStarNM on 10/07/2008 12:56:42 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Sorry.... (none / 0)

That was no insult, just a General Observation.

I graduated from NMSU in 2006 and I head down there often. I was there for 4 days and was really surprised by all the McCain supportes. Tailgating outside the stadium meant that you were surrounded by young, and old people supporting McCain. The McCain campaign had a HUGE RV trailer and they were handing out stuff for free. The Obama camp had a small tent and had everything for sale but they were nicer, haha. People with Obama stickers and signs got shouted at, and laughed at. Obama supporters need to be more tough down there.

we ate a few restaurants in Downtown Las Cruces and La Mesilla and almost all the restaurants had McCain signs in the window. 

 i would be happy to see Dona Ana county go for Obama but the truth is that it is mostly a Republican county. Bush is still popular there and McCain will win by more than 5 points. Same with Socorro, and T or C. Cowboy hat wearing repub's are everywhere down there.

 I'm originally from Espanola, and I'm happy with the democratic voting record out there. People up North get it and aren't afraid to combat the GOP talking points. My Pops saw right through the Palin rambling in the debate and is voting Obama.

Albuquerque has a healthy mix of supporters on both sides, but I think Obama has a slight edge. Not one Mccain campaign person has come by Rio Rancho yet, but I've seen 3 from the Obama side already. Plus they were friendly.

by DutchMasta on 10/07/2008 01:42:07 PM EST

[ Parent ]
OCTOBER 7th DEADLINE TO VOTE IN NM (none / 0)

Cenk, I know the show is still going on but can you remind viewers to register today in NM to vote?

 

OCTOBER 7TH is the deadline to vote in NM! 

by DutchMasta on 10/07/2008 01:47:46 PM EST

[ Parent ]
It's the deadline to register. (none / 0)

Voting starts later.

by EveningStarNM on 10/07/2008 02:27:20 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Given the actions of the current administration... (none / 0)
...your assumption could prove very wrong.

Early November is a long ways off.  What could happen between now and then???

  • a military coup
  • a major or even minor war
  • electronic voting fraud
  • an act of terrorism

by sfinneganus on 10/06/2008 01:07:13 AM EST

What about what I keep hearing re: the lead? (none / 0)
Namely, that Obama needs a 7 point lead or more in every state in order to ensure that the "I'm 'undecided' but I'm really a racist" vote doesn't kill his lead?

by jarett on 10/06/2008 01:23:21 AM EST

This is a myth (none / 0)

I dealt with it in a blog I posted the other day.

 

by ProfRich on 10/06/2008 01:35:56 AM EST

[ Parent ]
I agree (none / 0)

The Bradley Effect, while it probably holds true in some small jurisdictions that have been red and will be red for years to come, is irrelevant to the larger population.  The places where Obama needs a 7-point lead are in those areas where the Repugnantcans are likely to cheat.

It's funny.  The laws we needed to prevent election fraud weren't the ones that Repugnantcans have been saying we need.  We've needed laws to protect us from their voter suppression activities.

by EveningStarNM on 10/06/2008 10:17:56 AM EST

[ Parent ]
ProfRich did deal with this (none / 0)

And let me just add that Obama is at 50% in Gallup today and 52% in Rasmussen.  Even if 100% of the undecideds (about 4-8% of the electorate) all move to McCain Obama still wins. 

Obama is at 50% or very close to it in many of the crucial states now too.  

by publius on 10/06/2008 01:41:35 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You are forgetting (none / 0)

Minnesota.  Minnesota is way tighter than it oughta be, it seems to be Palin country up there.  Also i think Colorado is tighter than you think if you look at the polls.  However if Obama wins Minnesota, Pennsylvania and New Mexico then the following scenarios are endgames.  Nevada + NH = Tie = Obama Wins.  Colorado = tie = Obama Wins.  Florida=Obama Wins.  Ohio= Obama Wins.  Virginia = Obama Wins.  North Carolina = Obama Wins.  Missorri=Obama Wins.  Indiana = Obama Wins.

Mccain is screwed, he has to play hard defense in areas that republicans don't usually have to put so much money in.  He has to spread himself real thin.  I dont think he has a chance.

by s10129107 on 10/06/2008 10:10:44 AM EST

McCain even has to spend money in Omaha (none / 0)

Nebraska splits its Electoral votes, and Obama could take that district and win with it.

by EveningStarNM on 10/06/2008 10:19:27 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Welcome (none / 0)
Welcome to the world of people who look at more than just the Gallup Tracking Poll!

by publius on 10/06/2008 01:37:35 PM EST

Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado | 18 comments (18 topical, 0 hidden)
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