POLLS SHOW DEVESTATING NEW FOR CLINTON!

Email Print posted by adamg 02/18/2008 04:24:47 PM EST

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I have taken it upon myself to track the individual state by state, McCain vs Obama, Clinton polls from Realclearpolitics.com, to get a sense of how the Electoral Vote battle will turn out.

The results are below, and they are very bad for Clinton.

State   Advantage   Winner with Clinton  with Obama
Co    & nbsp;  O-21     ;    &n bsp;    R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;   D
FL    & nbsp;   tie         &nb sp;         R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;  R
MO    & nbsp;  C-1         &nb sp;       R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;  R
NH    & nbsp;  O-11      &nb sp;        R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;  D
OR    & nbsp;  O-12     ;    &n bsp;    R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;   D
PA    & nbsp;  O-12     ;    &n bsp;     ; R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;  D
WI    & nbsp;  O-17     ;    &n bsp;    R    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;    &n bsp;     ;   D

The advantage column shows who is better against McCain, for example in Wisconsin McCain beats Clinton by 7, but loses to Obama by 10, thus Obama has a 17 % point advantage over McCain.

As you can see from the win if column, Clinton wins only NH and McCain wins everything else, including liberal OR and PA, two traditional blue states.

Obama not only wins all the blue states, but also picks up CO.

Overall the electoral vote count for these 8 states is as such.

If Clinton is nominee:

McCain: 105 Clinton 4, McCain wins 96.3% of Electoral Vote

If Obama is nominee:

McCain: 58 Obama: 51  McCain wins 53.2% of the Electoral Vote

Now Florida, MO and OH are very close with McCain winning by only 2-3%, but the message from these polls is clear.

CLINTON WILL BE THE MODERN DAY MCGOVERN!

She is losing PA and OR! She could lose CA for gods sake!

If she loses to McCain by a single vote in CA, then the dems lose, period. Without CA democratic victory is impossible.

It is time for Obama to trumpet this news. The democratic electorate must know that Hillary is unelectable, even in some blue states!

Obama will have a tough fight on his hands but Hillary will be slaughtered.

Thoughts?
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POLLS SHOW DEVESTATING NEW FOR CLINTON! | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden)
One more thing (none / 0)
We all know that the democratic race will go to convention, so the final decision will come from super delegates in August.

I hope that by then at least half the states have head to head, McCain Clinton, Obama polls. If the current trend holds, (Obama is stronger than Clinton against McCain and getting stronger in nation wide polls) as well as the state by state polls, then the super delegates will have no choice but to go with Obama.

Specifically I would like to see a head to head out of California. If, as I suspect, clinton is very close to McCain or even behind, then you will see a media firestorm erupt, quickly followed by a stampede from the super delagates towards Obama.


by adamg on 02/18/2008 05:13:36 PM EST

Convention madness... gimme gimme (none / 0)
if it comes down to the convention, then let's go crazy:

Gore-Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Gore has seen the light, Obama is only 46 and is still too much of a politician (middle ground) to really implement true progressive change

wouldn't you kill for that ticket?

by callisto on 02/18/2008 07:20:34 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Those numbers... (none / 1)
Are completely shit. Like I really can't tell what they mean.

Cynicism is poison to reform and pumps life into the status quo.

by prezalex on 02/18/2008 05:35:03 PM EST

It's all worthless (none / 0)
We're ten months before the election.  There's only one thing that's absolutely certain: those numbers are going to change.

Sure, everyone knows that Clinton is behind.  She was barely above 9u11iani in national polls.  But she's not running a national campaign right now.  She's not even running against McCain yet.

I'm an Obama supporter.  I think he could clean McCain's clock (boy, I sure do like saying that).  But while I don't think Clinton would change enough of what I think needs to be changed -- especially with regard to getting corruption out of our national politics --  there is one thing about her of which I am certain:

She ain't no wimp, and she won't lay down when the Republican pigs launch their attack.  She'll fight back when she's swiftboated, and she'll match their desperate dishonesty with her passion.  When it comes to campaigning, she has little in common with Kerry or McGovern.

by Juarez Traveller on 02/18/2008 07:28:20 PM EST

Minnesota numbers (none / 0)
Minnesota is now the 9th state to feature a head to head poll.

realclearpolitics.com, check the recent polls.

McCain beats Hillary by 5% in MN
Obama beats McCain by 15% in MN.

If Clinton was running against McCain he beats her 115 electoral votes to 4!

Obama against McCain, Obama wins 61 evs to McCain's 58.

Bottom line, in 6/9 states with head to head polls, Obama is stronger againt McCain than is Hillary.

These may be early polls, but if they hold up over the coming months, then super delagates will not be able to vote for Hillary.

Lest they want to go against the will of the people and nominate another Walter Mondale.


by adamg on 02/18/2008 10:22:49 PM EST

POLLS SHOW DEVESTATING NEW FOR CLINTON! | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden)
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