MORE HEAD TO HEAD POLLS OF McCain vs Obama, Clinton!

Email Print posted by adamg 02/20/2008 04:16:08 PM EST

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realclearpolitics.com,

NY and MI join the 11 other states in finally reporting head to head polls of McCain vs Obama, Clinton.

That makes a total of 13.

These 13 states hold 187 electoral votes, 34.8% of the total EVs.

These 13 states are:

CO
FL
IA
MI
MN
MO
NY
NH
OH
OR
PA
VA
WI

Clinton is stronger than Obama in 3, Obama is stronger in 9 and they are tied in New York, both beating McCain by 7.

Against McCain Clinton wins in 2/13 states and recieves 35 EVs, 18.7% of the 187.

McCain wins 135 EVs, 72.2% of the 187

Michigan is tied between Clinton, McCain, so its 17 EVs are awarded to no one, however the % for both candidates is still out of 187.

Against McCain Obama wins 10/13 states, loseing only FL, OH, and MO. Obama wins 129 EVs, 69% of the 187.

McCain wins 58 EVs, 31% of the 187.

I wait with baited breath for new states to be added, and old states to be updates, as Ohio was today.

Remember these head to head polls represent what will occur on election day, so the EV count each candidate wins against McCain is all that matters.

Right now Obama is undeniably the stronger candidate. Perhaps this will change as more states add their polls to the total, but as it stands now, these polls are just more bad news for Hillary.
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MORE HEAD TO HEAD POLLS OF McCain vs Obama, Clinton! | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 hidden)
wow (none / 0)
Polls this far out mean nothing. there was a time when Kerry was ahead, so was Gore. In fact Dukakis also had a lead.

watch what happens as the media divorces Obama it has already begun

by LORD FOUL on 02/20/2008 04:47:43 PM EST

Polls, Polls and more Polls (none / 0)
Lord Foul how can you say that, why look here is a poll from July 1988 showing how former President Dukakis took a 16 point lead over former nominee Bush, after trailing him by 12 points.

Here is another one that showed how President Gore had a commanding 6 point lead over nominee Bush II.

We have no need to worry. See how accurate polls are this for out?

Let's not talk too much about this, Obama supporters would rather we all just be good little sheaple and not discuss anything negative that may come up.

by Hubble on 02/20/2008 05:36:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
There's a difference (none / 0)
between discussing negatives and just being negative about the whole thing.  It would be different if you said "this sure does suck.  but here's what I think we should do instead" but too many "sheaple" just point out how everything sucks over and over.  I get it.  What do you want to do as an alternative?

by Spencer on 02/20/2008 05:47:01 PM EST

[ Parent ]
one thing (none / 0)
Let me point out that Hillary is now behind by 159 pledged delagates and fading fast in Ohio and Texas. This means that she will not catch Obama in the pledged deleagate count. Therefore, the only way she gets the nomination is by overturning the will of the majority through super delegates.

This will not be looked upon by the American people in a favorable light.

Thus to those that say, "Hillary may be getting her ass handed to her by McCain now, but she will improve over time", I think it is more likely that she will weaken over time.

That is why these polls are important, to see whether or not Clinton truely is the next Walter Mondale. If that is the case in 3 months, the Super Delegates would be guilty of political negligence to allow her to be the nominee.

Remember a John McCain victory gurantees hundreds of billions more spent in Iraq and hundreds if not thousands of dead US soldiers.

Lives are literally on the line. It is for the sake of those soldiers McCain plans on sacrificing to this war that he must be defeated at all cost.

If all the polls over the next 3 months show her to be the weaker candidate and likely to lose, then it would be immoral for her to become the nominee.

Unless she thinks the ego stroking act of running a 2 month national campaign is worth all those lives.

by adamg on 02/20/2008 06:39:03 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I'm sorry Spencer (none / 0)
I didn't realize that by pointing out that it isn't a very good idea for everyone to get real excited about "polls" at this point in the process I was saying "this sure does suck". Ask Hillary about polls. A year ago she was the run away nominee, but a lot changed in a mere six months. Ask McCain six months ago he was done and now he is going to be the cons nominee.

I point these things out in an effort to keep people from being complacent thinking the next election is going to be an easy win.

Unfortunately we seem to have SOME who take any comments as criticism and take offence.

What do you want to do as an alternative?

I want the Democratic Party to stop making the same stupid mistakes over and over by becoming so confident that middle America were elections are won and lost are going to just blindly vote for "our" guy just because they don't always agree with the guy on the other side.

Yes I know Obama is running on "HOPE" and "CHANGE".
WOW no one has ever run on that them before if you don't count ever election we have ever had.

I have said many times I HOPE I'M WRONG. I don't know which part of that you can't understand, but I'm not going to stop pointing out my concerns and turn into a goosestepping drone of the left like some sheaple have. They are just a stupid and ridiculous as the drones on the right.

I have spent a lot a time and a few years on this board pointing out the hypocrisy, lies, and stupidity of the cons, but I don't think I have to just follow whatever propaganda is catapulted at me from either side.

I want to win, I don't want a repeat of what's happened too often to The Democratic Party.

Feel free to ignore my post if you can't handle someone pointing out what may be problems and not getting real excited about polls at this point in the process.

by Hubble on 02/21/2008 08:54:44 AM EST

[ Parent ]
So is the solution to support Hillary? (none / 0)
Or just give up?  Is there a third (or  more) choice I know not of?  I confess I have gotten no sense of what you think we should do besides "win."

"If you're not pumped up, then get the hell out, 'cause you don't belong here." -- Cenk Uygur

by Spinny on 02/21/2008 09:17:35 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Feel free not post if you dont like responses (none / 0)
What you are trying to say is that Obama is an empty suit with no substance . thats of course bull shit. Hillary has a record. A record that includes voting for the war in Iraq .

by Chinese Democracy on 02/21/2008 10:59:53 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Excuse me? (none / 0)
Where would you get the idea I don't like responses?
Where do you get that I think Hillary was a better choice than Obama?

From the post here it would appear it is the "True Believers" who don't want a discussion unless it's to fall into lockstep and fawn over just how swell Obama is.

The only thing I would say about Hillary is that The Clinton's do know how to fight the slime machine that is the Republican Party. 

Just because I have pointed out the attitude many of his supporters and for a brief moment the media had toward Obama as the next Great Hope shouldn't be taken as some wild loyalty to Hillary.

My intent is to try and keep people from assuming that this is a done deal and Obama or whoever the Democrats nominate will walk into the Whitehouse without a fight.

If Obama and his supporters can't take a few simple jibes at this stage, I really do worry about what's going to happen in the General Election when the rhetoric go into high gear.

Spencer says "It would be different if you said "this sure does suck.  but here's what I think we should do instead" but too many "sheaple" just point out how everything sucks over and over. 

I would reply that sometimes pointing out the potholes in the road to the Whitehouse is just as important as standing on the sideline with my pom poms cheering the the campaign engine on.

Don't think I don't want the Democrats to win, whoever the nominee is, but I'm not going to just sit back and fawn over a candidate blindly just because he has exceptional oratory skills.
As to Obama being an empty suit. I never said that. Obama is running on the same themes and issues Democrats have been running on for a very long time, nothing really new to anything he or Hillary are campaigning on. He just happens to be the flavor of the month.

I really wish I could get all tingly with excitement over whoever the Democrats nominate, but I have watched what should have been cake walks to the Whitehouse crash and burn too many times in my life to make the mistake of assuming that just because someone has good ideas, or can give a good speech they will win.

The purpose of my comments is to try a keep some perspective and tell people don't get too excited at this point, we still have a game to play.

Ask the Patriots about getting over confident and being the assumptive winner of the Super Bowl.

by Hubble on 02/21/2008 03:44:35 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I agree in a way. (none / 0)
I agree that we're not going to just walk into the presidency.  It's never that easy.  The republicans are very good at the game of politics.
The thing that makes me mad is when you talk about Obama supporters like we're members of some cult.  I don't think you support Hillary (nor do I care), but the reasons I chose Obama are not as superficial as you keep portraying them to be.  I didn't just get chills when he spoke and said "that's my guy!".  I chose him for his stances and actions on a number of issues (that I'm tired of digging into, not here but in other threads).  You're right that we've all been surprised on election days in the past when we get our asses handed to us (or stolen from us), but try to keep the snide remarks to a minimum while you tell us that.  I don't see how it helps your point at all.  We're not all "sheaple".

by Spencer on 02/21/2008 04:44:04 PM EST

[ Parent ]
my opinion on all the doom and gloom (none / 0)
The idea that Obama is a moron and doesn't know what he is getting into sounds like it came right from the keyboard of the resident conservative troll. Obama is doing better NATION WIDE than either Hillary or McCain. He is not stupid . He is probably the most savvy candidate the Dems have put up in a long time. At one time Hillary was the presumed candidate. That changed in a big way. McCain is almost non news except for his sex scandals and so forth.

by Chinese Democracy on 02/21/2008 05:06:18 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Yeah (none / 0)
I don't get the whole "he cant take criticsm" point.  Has Obama been crying when people take shots at him?  I don't get it.

by Spencer on 02/21/2008 05:40:27 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Maybe people are confusing (none / 0)
class with wimpiness.  You don't have to roll up sleeves and bloody an attacker's nose in order to kick the shit out of him/her.

"If you're not pumped up, then get the hell out, 'cause you don't belong here." -- Cenk Uygur

by Spinny on 02/21/2008 05:47:50 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Slow down Sparky (none / 0)
I have never said Obama was a moron. I have poked a little fun at the entire cult like, rock star persona that SOME of his followers have given him, but I have never said he was stupid.

I have said that the over the top adoration SOME of his supporters is a little bizarre.

The inability of some to take a joke is disturbing, as we are supposed to be the party that can laugh at ourselves.

Not wanting to listen to the hazards we will be facing in the General Election is just plain foolish.

I am not doom and gloom. I am a realist who is trying to warn the lemmings that the cliff is approaching, and this time let's not all get caught up in the euphoria of the moment and all be pushed over.

McCain is almost non news except for his sex scandals and so forth. 
 
Duh! The Republican nomination is wrapped up of course he is non news at this point, (or was until the sexcapade came out) wait until the Democrats are through and then tell me he's non news. At this point the Republicans want him to be non news, let the focus be on the Dems battling it out.

Obama is doing better NATION WIDE than either Hillary or McCain.

It's a long way to election day. Results in primaries don't mean a thing in the General Election. History will show you that.

by Hubble on 02/21/2008 05:48:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Well, if we're foredoomed to go over the cliff (none / 0)
since there seem to be no alternatives, we might as well enjoy the trip.

"If you're not pumped up, then get the hell out, 'cause you don't belong here." -- Cenk Uygur

by Spinny on 02/21/2008 05:53:28 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Where do I get that idea?? (none / 0)
From posts like. If you dont like what I post dont read it, or words to that effect .

So if you dont like people responses to the point you ask them not to. Then dont post.

by Chinese Democracy on 02/21/2008 05:02:58 PM EST

[ Parent ]
MORE HEAD TO HEAD POLLS OF McCain vs Obama, Clinton! | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 hidden)
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