The Young Turks

I'm glad you are like some mega math nerd and all, i commend you for being so anal that you actually follow daily electoral College votes 9 mos before the general election, but do you realize that these numbers are absolute nonsense and total bullshit?

If you are a math guy, you know that there are so many variables in this process, so all your effort really is for naught, im afraid.

Sit back, relax, get a drink and CALM DOWN.! You are at 10, and you need to be at a 2...

thanks...

by bobo1 on 02/23/2008 12:20:43 AM EST

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How can these posts be pointless? We have very important upcoming primaries. Don't you think the voters of Texas and OH deserve to know how things currently stand?

If Hillary is another Mondale then it would be stupid to vote for her. If Barack is crushing Mac then you should vote for him.

In november nothing is more important than preventing Mac from taking the white house. Thousands of soldier's lives depends on it.

Therefore these current polls have worth.

Will the polls change from here to November? Of course, but here's something to consider for all those who point to Dukackis's early lead in the polls.

Independent's favor Mac over Clinton. Since independent's decide election it makes sense that she is the weaker candidate.

There is the hypothesis: now we look to the polls for evidence.

For 3 weeks every polls shows Clinton losing to Mac but Obama beating him, (nationwide polls), there is your popular vote.

In state by state polls which represent the winner take all electoral college, Obama is crushing Mac but Hillary is still losing badly.

Thus we have mounting evidence for the hypothesis, that Obama is more likely to win in november.

For Hillary to get the nomination would require her to steal it via super delegates from Obama, who will have more pledged votes.

Let me ask you this?

If she does, do you not think the media will trumpet it for days? Do you think this will decrease her negatives?

Do you think that independents will see her overturning the popular vote as a reason to support her?

Obvioulsy not! And the convention is 2 months from the general!

If Clinton steals the nomination, (and there is no way for her to win in pledged delegates, so please, Clinton fans, don't proclaim that you may win by 25% in OH, TX and PA) then it will be terrible press just 8 weeks before the election!

Her negatives will pop just when she needs them as low as can be.

So the polls in september will get worse for Clinton, just when it really counts.

I understand people saying that voting on electability is a bad idea, but thats only if the "more electable" candidate is bad on policy. Obama is a smart guy, who would make a great president, so why not pick him?

Clinton not only can't win in november, but if she did would never get her programs through the senate, unless dems pick up 9 senate seats, which is very unlikely.

So I think I'll keep updating these daily EV counts, in the hope that the most electable candidate will prevail and hey, if Obama implodes vs Obama, then I will change my support as well.

All that matters is saving our soldier's from another 8 years in the meat grinder that is Iraq. Supporting the candidate that can do this is the only moral thing to do. Supporting a candidate that will lose to McCain is therefore immoral. Each day we get closer to the election and gain more state by state polls. Thus each day we get a slightly better idea of who is the moral and immoral choice for dem nominee against McCain.

by adamg on 02/23/2008 12:48:15 PM EST

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that some people seem to have a hard time recognizing even when it's spelled out to them.  

Nice job of doing your homework, adam.  Not everyone is engaged enough to dig below the surface bullshit the media goons feed them.  It's a lot easier to parrot talking points than to "do the math."

Baaaaaaaaaaaah to them, I say.  :-)

"If you're not pumped up, then get the hell out, 'cause you don't belong here." -- Cenk Uygur

by Spinny on 02/23/2008 07:24:12 PM EST

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