EV Count Update for 3/12/08, BAD NEWS!

Email Print posted by adamg 03/12/2008 03:34:50 PM EST

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The news today couldn't be better for McCain.

The latest polls out of MI show McCain beating both Clinton and Obama by 3.

In PA he beats Clinton by 2 Obama by 1.

So with 21 states reporting, 284 EVs out of 538 total, here are the numbers.

Clinton vs McCain:

Clinton: 70, 24.6%
McCain: 214, 75.4%

Obama vs Clinton:

Obama: 103, 36.3%
McCain: 176, 62%
NM is tied

So it appears as if the fighting between the dems will indeed lead to a President McCain.

Damnit it all to hell! The dems truely are grand masters at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory!

Thoughts?

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EV Count Update for 3/12/08, BAD NEWS! | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden)
MORE BAD NEWS! (none / 0)
Yet another poll from PA!

McCain beats Clinton by 6, Obama by 3!

by adamg on 03/12/2008 11:03:39 PM EST

Apparently Hillary's campaign (none / 0)
is working just as we expected. It's hurting Obama AND Hillary, all to the benefit of McCain.

by ihavenobias on 03/12/2008 11:57:52 PM EST

I'm a poll watcher (none / 0)
So, naturally, my predictions are often hopelessly wrong.  Still, I'm interested in what you're doing here.

But what are you doing?  How are you assembling these numbers?  What is your process?

I've been looking at pollster.com, and the numbers there show that in national popularity during 2008, Obama has consistently been ahead of McCain, while it's only been during the last few days that Clinton has edged out McCain.

If we combine those results with what you're showing, that seems to indicate that McCain could win the Electoral College but lose the popular vote.

In which case this time my protests would be something less than peaceful.

But I really don't want to go to jail next year unless it's absolutely necessary.  Are there any possible weaknesses in your method which might indicate that such a dreaded result will not occur?


by EveningStarNM on 03/13/2008 12:26:23 AM EST

method (none / 0)
Eveningstar:

My method is simple.

Each day I check realclearpolitics.com and look under latest polls.

As state head by head polls between McCain and Clinton, Obama come in I record the data and result in an excel spreadsheet.

I only count the latest poll from each state.

The weakness is that the dates for some states are several weeks out of date, such as NV and CO, but the trend is clear.

Obama is now losing to McCain in states he used to win in, such as PA and NJ.

Clinton is losing in WA, WI and OR.

The fighting between the two has resulted in McCain surging, both in national polls and state by state.

The average for the national polls still shows the dems winning, but if that is the final case it will be close.

If McCain wins the Electoral college and loses by 1-2% in the popular vote, it will mean riots in the streets and the fall of the Republic.

I hope that things turn around but unless the Dems unite now, which is impossible, how the hell can we stem the tide of electoral blood?

by adamg on 03/14/2008 08:11:39 PM EST

Thanks for the explanation, adamg. (none / 0)
And thanks for scaring the hell out of me.  Well, I guess it isn't really your fault.  I just hope that Bill, who I really think is the smarter of the two, can talks some sense into Hillary.

by EveningStarNM on 03/15/2008 02:02:47 AM EST

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EV Count Update for 3/12/08, BAD NEWS! | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden)
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