EV Count Update for 3/18/08: Now with 25 states!
posted by adamg 03/18/2008 05:40:01 PM EST
Ok, so Survey USA had a shit load of surveys released on March 6, but they were not posted to realclearpolitics until a couple days later, so I did not see them.
I have gone back 3 weeks and updated all the states and added 2 more, AL and AR.
Thus we are now at 50% states reporting,(with 67.1% of the EV vote) here are the numbers:
Clinton vs McCain:
McCain: 243, 67.3%
Clinton: 118, 32.7%
Obama vs McCain:
McCain: 203, 56.2%
Obama: 138, 38.2%
NJ, NM are tied
Now I know I said I would pound the gavel when we hit 50% of the states, but the real end of the race is when someone gets 270 EVs.
At that point its time to fold up the tent and go home.
So I shall halt the gavel a centimeter from the table top and wait for McCain to get the 270 EVs in the next couple of states, before declaring him the decisive winner against both dems.
On an interesting note: it does appear as if Hillary is gaining some credence to her, "I am stronger against McCain" sloganeering.
She now just barely beats McCain in head to head national polls while Obama just barely loses to Mac.
However, in the most recent polls, (from 3/13-3/18) Obama is the stronger candidate in:
Ca, NY, FL, CT
Clinton is the better candidate in:
AR
Clinton ties Obama in OH, were both candidates lose to McCain by 6.
Overall, looking at all 25 states here is how electibility breaks down:
Clinton is the stronger candidate in: 5/25 states
Obama is the stronger candidate in: 17/25 states
Both Candidates are tied in:
&am
p;am p;am p;nb sp; 3/25 states
But the question is: Do these differences in strength vs McCain make a difference?
Well lets see
Hillary wins the following states that Barack would lose:
AR, NJ(Clinton wins, Obama ties McCain)
Obama wins the following states that Clinton would lose:
CO, IA, MN, NV, NM, (Obama ties Mac, Clinton loses outright) OR, WI
So the overall lead Obama has in EVs vs Clinton is 16.6%, (meaning he loses to McCain by 18%, Clinton loses by 34.6%).
So while Hillary is gaining somewhat in electability relative to Obama, and now leads him in the national polls, she is still way behind where it counts: the electoral college.
Unfortunately it appears as if all of Clinton's gains come at the expense of Obama and that she has now guaranteed a McCain presidency.
NOTE: over the last 14 days, 1.1 troops/day have died in Iraq.
http://www.ac.wwu.edu/~step
han/USfatalities.htmlJohn McCain will be president for 1460 days.
Thus Hillary Clinton, in her futile effort to win the nomination, has helped to gurantee the deaths of 1606 US soldiers.
Thought it is ultimately McCain's Meat Grinder, she is undoubtably partially responsible and thus will have blood on her hands.
