EV Count Update for 3/02/08, NOW WITH 19 STATES!

Email Print posted by adamg 03/02/2008 07:40:30 PM EST

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Ok, so it turns out there where polls released on 2/28 that where posted on RCP after that date, so I just found them. On that date there were 2 new states added to the tally, AZ and TN, as well as a new NJ poll.

Here is the breakdown on those:

AZ, Obama loses by 11, Clinton by 24, score 10 EVs for Mac from his homestate.

TN: Clinton loses by 7, Obama by 14, that's 11 EVs for Mac.

NJ: Clinton by 4, Obama by 5, no change in EVs from last time.

Then on 2/29 there was an updated FL poll.

Obama loses by 10, Clinton by 9, that state has always been in Mac's column so the total numbers don't shift.

Then today, 3/02 a new NJ poll:

Clinton wins by 11, Obama loses by 2.

Now this is a stunning upset for Mac, to be winning NJ by 2 against Barack. Overall the average of 3 polls shows Obama ahead by 3.3, but Clinton ahead by 7.

Does this indicate Clinton is correct and Obama could lose the traditional blue states? More polls will be needed, though I doubt it. NY shows no signs of slipping for Mac, though a poll from CA would be nice, perhaps we'll finally get one this week.

Overall, with 19 states now in the data base, representing 239 EVs, 44.4% of the total here are the EV counts:

Clinton vs McCain:

Clinton: 91, 38.1% of EVs
McCain: 131, 54.8% of EVs
MI is still tied, its EVs are awarded to no one

Obama vs McCain:

Obama: 141, 59.0% of EVs
McCain: 93, 38.9% of EVs
NM is still tied

Overall Obama is still the stronger candidate by far.

The next update will be posted when the next new state releases its polls.
< Political Hack Of The Year Award | Ana, I have never heard such ignorant garbage... >
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EV Count Update for 3/02/08, NOW WITH 19 STATES! | 1 comment (1 topical, 0 hidden)
TEXAS NOW IN! (none / 0)
Texas now has a poll in, meaning we are up to 20 states!

Obama loses by 7 to Mac, Clinton by 4.

So here is the updated EV count.

Total states 20, 273 EVs, 50.7% of the total

Clinton vs McCain:

Clinton wins 5/20 states and ties 1

Clinton: 91 EVs, 33.3%
McCain: 165 EVs, 60.4%
MI is tied

Obama vs McCain:

Obama wins 11/20 states and ties 1

Obama: 141 EVs, 51.6%
McCain: 127 EVs, 46.5%
NM is tied

We have finally crossed the 50% EV threshold and Obama is still the stronger candidate.

We also have the # 2 and #3 states reporting in, TX and NY.

Hopefully we can get a CA poll this week, along with at least 4 other polls, so we can get to the half way mark in terms of number of states.

by adamg on 03/03/2008 12:07:44 AM EST

EV Count Update for 3/02/08, NOW WITH 19 STATES! | 1 comment (1 topical, 0 hidden)
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