EV Count Update for 3/20/08: 2 NEW STATES! 5 UPDATES!
posted by adamg 03/20/2008 02:34:37 PM EST
If you like this story,
digg it!
http://www.realclearpolitic
s.com/epolls/2008/latestpol
ls/index.html2 new states and 5 updates today!
First the new states:
KY: Mac beats Clinton by 10, beats Obama by 36.
It appears that the attempt to portray Obama as a secret angry black man has succeeded. Working class whites have abandoned Obama.
MA: Clinton beats Mac by 13, Obama ties McCain
Terrible news for Obama, when combined with NJ, definetly gives credence to Clinton's "Obama can't win big important blue states" argument.
However, I am confident that MA and NJ will swing for Obama in the future, I can't imagine those states going for McCain.
Now the updates:
OH: Obama loses by 7, Clinton wins by 6
I will admit I was wrong in my pronouncement yesterday regarding the PPP poll that showed Clinton winning OH. Survey USA is a good, objective polling firm and it seems that Clinton is more electable in OH than Obama.
MO: Clinton loses by 2, Obama by 14
Clinton has a shot, it appears that the scare tactics against Obama have worked and he is doomed in that state.
CA: Clinton by 18, Obama by 14
Not a surprise either way, but important to note that Obama has always been the stronger candidate in CA. Now Clinton has the advantage there.
MN: my home state:
Clinton wins by 3, Obama loses by 1!
Very disturbing results, Obama suddenly losing in a state he was very strong in the caucus on super tuesday, (won 2-1 over Clinton)
WI: Clinton wins by 1, Obama by 4.
Congrats to Clinton for putting my neighbor in the D column.
So overall here are the numbers with 54% of states reporting, representing 70.8% of EVs.
McCain vs Clinton:
McCain: 215, 56.4%
Clinton: 166, 43.6%
McCain vs Obama:
McCain: 218, 57.2%
Obama: 122, 32%
CO, MA, NJ and NM are tied
So overall it seems that Obama has been turned into the "black candidate" at least in the eyes of working class whites in states like KY, OH, WV and MO.
The latest PA dem primary polls shows her ahead by 16, so her lead is not shrinking.
In WV she leads by 28%.
The current trends indicate that Obama is sunk. He has now been pidgion holed by the reverend Wright controversy and his insanely intelligent and nuanced speech on race has fallen on death ears amoung the people he needed to win over, (working class whites who haven't had time to pay attention up until now).
If current trends continue then Obama will soon slip behind Mac in CO, may lose MA, NJ and NM and NV as well.
I hope the polls turn but I doubt they will.
Since the ultimate objective must be to beat McCain at all cost, I am considering changing my support to Clinton.
The lives of 1606 US soldiers lie in the balance and despite Clinton's dispicable actions, I am not willing to be partially responsible for their deaths just to teach Clinton a lesson.
Therefore I will say the folllowing:
If Clinton wins in PA, she must win by a landslide, 20+%.
If she is able to do that, then she will have the momentum to win in NC and IN.
After that she crushes Obama in WV, by 30+% and a week later is OR and KY.
She must at least win OR, (momentum would make this possible) and crush in KY.
After that its MT and SD, Obama strong holds, but I think if she can win 7 in a row until then, she may be able to pull it off.
Finally a crushing win in Porto Rico and she will have closed the gap sufficiently in pleded delegates and be leading in the popular votes, so the super delegates will be able to justify handing her the election.
It will still split the party, but less so than if Obama wins in the states he is favored in.
Of course, this is a best case scenario. Should Obama win some states and Clinton not blow him out in PA, KY and WV, then he will still lead in popular vote and pledged delegates, which will result in a convention fight that will destroy the party and cause the deaths of 1606 US soldiers.
