The Hillary Effect: By the Numbers

Email Print posted by ProfRich 03/29/2008 02:48:23 AM EST

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On March 26<sup>th</sup> Gallup released a poll indicating 28% of Hillary supporters would vote for McCain rather than Obama.  Here is what that means for the general election (to the extent we can rely on polling data).

The March 26<sup>th</sup> Gallup poll sees Obama pulling 44% to McCain’s 45% for a virtual tie.  The same polling data gives Obama 48% to Clinton’s 44% among Democratic primary voters.  If we conservatively estimate Democratic support at 44% and take Hillary’s 44% of that we can conclude Hillary as the support of about 22% of the voter’s overall.  28% of those voters equals about 6% of the national voters who are jumping party to McCain.

Now lets return to the Obama 44%/McCain 45% poll.

If the Hillary voters were not jumping party that would add 6% to Obama that would be subtracted from McCain giving us Obama 50%/McCain 39%.

What does this mean?  It strikes me as a good news, bad news situation for both parties. A divided Democrat party appears to give McCain an even shot at this stage in the race but if the Dems can unite, they would have an overwhelming lead over McCain at this stage in the race.

Now keep in mind I have estimated low for the overall Democratic support since the 44% number is artificially depressed by the Hillary defectors to begin with so its probably a point or two more extreme than this.

I did not run these numbers for the Obama defectors because I am assuming Obama and McCain will be the nominees.  In fact, I give Obama a slightly higher chance of being the Dem nominee that I do McCain being the GOP candidate.  It is clear to me the only way Obama can lose the nomination is due to a scandal so big the party has to reject him or (God forbid) he becomes physically unable to be president.   The same is true from McCain, of course.  Since I believe Obama and McCain are essentially equally likely (or unlikely) to be derailed by scandal and McCain is far more likely to be derailed by health (God forbid) I think Obama is in a better position to be his party’s nominee.

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The Hillary Effect: By the Numbers | 9 comments (9 topical, 0 hidden)
In the words of Dave, (none / 0)
From this post:

“I will never forget, however, your long, reasoned, mathematically-sound explanations of how Kerry was going to defeat Bush in 2004.  They have left a bad taste in my mouth for complex arguments about what is going to happen in the future in the political arena.”

by KenTX on 03/29/2008 04:01:23 AM EST

another important overlooked factor (none / 0)
The "Bradley Effect" or "Wilder Effect".

by KenTX on 03/29/2008 04:05:27 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Again and again and again (none / 0)

First we all know Ken has been peeing himself waiting to use the "Dave bashes Rich" quote.  Which makes it so sad he misused it so badly.  I didn't say anything about what was going to happen in the future.  I simply followed the math to look at what we are told is happening now with the caveat that these polls can be trusted.  Once again, Ken was to excited to get in his red team vs. blue team argument he shot his wad too early without reading what he was writing about.

Sad day for Ken.

He also follows this up with a major hallmark of modern conservatism:

Championing a theory despite the fact that all the evidence proves it wrong (think tax cuts for rich people will help the economy, when we "liberate" Iraq they will throw roses at our feet, regulation is bad for America etc.).

The Bradely Effect theory says people will say they are gonna vote for Barak but their racism will kick in in the booth and they won't vote for the black guy.  So if this is true, Obama will underperform his polling.

Whoops.  Obama often outperforms his polling and certainly does not underperfrom more than any other politician.  I know that in your previous career as a (domestic) engineer or whatever reading and math weren't important skills for you, Ken, but its time to step it up.

by ProfRich on 03/29/2008 11:43:27 PM EST

[ Parent ]
yes, again and again (none / 0)
“I didn't say anything about what was going to happen in the future.”
Your entire post was about trying to project the future. You were employing polls, math analysis, current observations, momentum and conventional wisdom to make predictions about possible outcome. You were doing the same thing in this thread that you did prior to the 2004 election.  There’s absolutely nothing wrong with this kind of statistical analysis. It’s fun.

For example, here’s another one of your reasoned predictions from this thread.

“It is clear to me the only way Obama can lose the nomination is due to a scandal so big the party has to reject him or (God forbid) he becomes physically unable to be president.” 

You were saying what was going to happen in the future. The point is that when you’re clearly busted, it shows more class to simply accept it, or ignore it.

by KenTX on 03/30/2008 04:01:57 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Me being humble (none / 0)

Thats preetty weak Ken.  I mean that "prediction" has nothing at all to do with my fancy 'rithmatic.

My "prediction" seems to be something accepted as fact in the TYT community. In fact, Cenk spends about an hour and a half a day on it but if this is the best you can come up with to defend your pathetic attempt to mindlessly blast me I will be the bigger man and admit I was wrong.

Since I admire you so I will look to your example.  Give me a second to scroll up to where you own up to being wrong about the "Bradley Effect." 

Ok, theres your unfounded theory.

There's me bitch-slapping you.

Dang it, Ken! There must be some technical glitch and your post admitting you were wrong and just talking out your ass (again) didn't get posted.  Try it again, big guy.  Hate for people to think you can't admit when you are wrong AND you're a hypocrite. 

by ProfRich on 03/30/2008 11:27:18 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Did you decide (none / 0)
that you are no longer determined to argue with trolls? :)

by Chinese Democracy on 03/30/2008 04:51:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]
NOT to argue with (none / 0)

by Chinese Democracy on 03/30/2008 04:52:22 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Trying, man, trying (none / 0)

Don't do drugs, don't drink, don't buy sit I can't afford but bitch slapping Ken is a hard habit to break.

Easy to do, hard to stop.

by ProfRich on 03/30/2008 05:32:13 PM EST

[ Parent ]
The Way I see it Prof is (none / 0)
McCain aka McBush  is such a bad choice either of the D candidates should be at least 15 points ahead.  The protracted fight has jumped the shark and is now damaging the D party.

by Chinese Democracy on 03/29/2008 01:18:06 PM EST

The Hillary Effect: By the Numbers | 9 comments (9 topical, 0 hidden)
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