The Young Turks

I am going to throw out some polling data as we look forward to the election.  I am not going to talk about election polls.

Below is all the polling data I could find that seemed to be relevant to the election.  I did not cherry pick anything I used the most recent poll that could be easily translated into election issue terms on every thing. 

According to the latest poll the most important issues in America to voters are:

Economy 37%

War in Iraq 15%

Gas Prices 7%

Health Care 6%

Education 3%

Gallup addresses the issue differently.  Their poll asks how much you care about different issues.  Here is the result of their poll

The numbers are care a great deal-a fair amount- only a little/not at all

Economy 60-30-10

Health Care 58-23-18

Crime and violence 49-31-19

Energy costs 47-35-17

Social Security 46-29-24

Drug Use 43-24-33

Environment 40-34-26

Terrorism 40-33-27

Immigration 40-30-30

Poverty 38-35-26

Unemployment 36-32-31

Race 18-27-54

ECONOMY

Approve of Bush’s handling? 27% do 70% don’t (49-45 in 4/04)

Which party do you trust more with the economy? Rep 34% Dem 53% 

WAR IN IRAQ

Which party would do a better job? Rep 28% Dem 34% (42-27 in 04)

War justified? Yes 35% No 62%

How long should U.S. troops stay? Two years or less 68% 2-4 years 14% 5+ 6%

Is the surge making things better?  Better 42% Worse or no impact 47%

War worth it? Yes 29% No 64% (51-47 in 4/04)

Should next president remove most of the troops? Yes 61% No 33% (33-66 in 4/04)

IRAN

If diplomacy fails should we take military action in Iran? Yes 34% No 55%

Would you favor military action in Iran? Yes 29% No 68%

Are you concerned the U.S. will be too quick to use military force in Iran?

Very 47% Somewhat 34% Not too 14% Not at all 8%

ENERGY

Dealing with nations energy problems? Rep 23% Dem 57%

Most likely to make sure we have enough sources of energy?

Rep 30%  Dem 45%

HEALTH CARE

64% of people think it is the government’s responsibility

65% support Obama’s health care plan (the highest of all the plans)

Who would do a better job with health care? Rep 26% Dem 56%

EDUCATION

Who would do a better job? Rep 26%  Dem 55%

SOCIAL SECURITY

According to Gallup, people prefer the Dem approach 48%-31%

ENVIRONMENT

Who will do a better job with it? Dem 65% Rep 21% 

TERRORISM AT HOME

Whose better to handle?  Rep 45 Dem 38

BUT

Party to protect us from international terrorism and military threats? Rep 42% Dem 47% (52-29 in 2004)

IMMIGRATION

Which party can do a better job? Dem 30% Rep 31% 

TAXES

Fewer Americans feel they are paying too much in taxes (52%) under Bush than any other time since JFK

Better on taxes? Rep 37% Dem 49%

UNLISTED ISSUES

Should gay marriage be allowed?  Yes-54% No-43%  This was 45-48 four years ago. 

Stem Cell Research- What’s more important, research or saving an embryonic life?  Research wins 51%-35% 

Gun Control- Should gun laws be more strict or less strict? Stricter-49% less strict-11% no change-38% 

Abortion- Are you more pro-life or pro-choice?  PC 48%, PL 37%

Should abortion be illegal in all or most cases? Yes 40%, No 57%

Improving Morality? Rep 34% Dem 44%

Reforming government? Rep 25% Dem 50%

GENRAL CLIMATE

71% Wrong Track  24% Right Track (38-57 in 4/04)

15% Satisified with “way things are going” 83% Dissatisfied (easily the lowest number in the 15 year history of the poll (41-57 in 4/04)

Are you better off than 4 years ago? Yes 34% No 43% (42-33 in 04) 

Economic CASH index 29.5 (Jan 2002 is 100) Lowest score in 6 year history (84.5 in 4/04)

Consumer Comfort Index –34 (2008 has is only time it has been –30 or less in six year history) (-17 in 4/04)

TIPP Indicators- Economic Optimism 39.2, Presidential Leadership Index- 36, National Outlook 37.3  First and third are lows, Bush has been lower on this but not by much.  (52.8-49.5-49 in 4/04)

Consumer Confidence Index- 64.5, Present Situation-89.2, Expectations- 47.9  First and third are lowest in ten years. (93-90.4-94.8 in 4/04)

2/3 to 3/4 of Americans believe we are in a recession 

67%  blame the war in Iraq

59% a Great Depression is at least somewhat likely

 

ELECTABILITY

Is America ready for a black president? 76% Yes, 22% No

Is America ready for a president over 70? 61% Yes, 29% No

Should the next president take a similar approach to Bush? 17% Yes, 76% No

Best age for a president? 40s-20%, 70s- 2%

PARTIES

Are you more or less enthusiastic than normal about the election?

Democrats 79%  Republicans 44%

Favorable view of Democratic Party? 56% Yes 38% No (48-41 in 04)

Republicans? 41% Yes 52% No (50-43 in 04)

Do you consider yourself a Democrat, Republican or Independent? Rep-26%, Dem 35%, Independent-23% (31-34-24 in 04)

Cool your fingers, trolls.  I am not writing this to say anything at all about who will win in 2008.  I am writing this to say if you are going to insist the country is conservative and loves the Republican policies then please offer some proof.  Here is my case (part of it anyway).  If you want to argue bring something better than "Bo(bo) knows".

Come strong or don't come at all.

To sum up the GOP's strengths are 1% of Americans prefer them on immigration (9th most important issue) and 5% prefer them on terrorism at home (8th most important) (this turns into a 5% liability when the word international and military threats is added).

EVERYTHING ELSE a liability.  Usually by a large margin.

I am not naive though.  I understand there is nothing the GOP is unwilling to do to make an election about anything but issues.  Now you know why that is how it will have to be in 2008.

Ok, now bobo can tell me he just knows this is all wrong and Ken can find one tiny minute detail and niggle at it while ignoring the overall (and overwhelming) point of the data.