OK Guys - Pennsylvania Prediction Time...

Email Print posted by bobo1 04/22/2008 12:35:49 AM EST

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Lets take some bets here and see who is the closest!!!

OK, The Penn. primary is here: How do you see it going down?

Closest to the right answer gets - well, nothing, since I dont have shit to give you - but you'll have bragging rights on the blog and what not...

My prediction: Hillary by 8%

Any thoughts! Lets see who wins!

Afterwards, we'll do the pool that predicts when Hillary finally drops out!!!

:)
< Saudi Women 'Kept in Perpetual Childhood' while Hillary runs for Queen. | Obama's first presidential term: Your expectations? >

Poll

What will the Pennsylvania result be?
Obama < 5 points 16%
Obama > 5 points 11%
Clinton < 5 points 22%
Clinton > 5 points 50%

Votes: 18
Results | Other Polls
 Display:
OK Guys - Pennsylvania Prediction Time... | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 hidden)
its hard to say the polls are ALL over the place. (none / 0)
I'll go Hillary 4%

Palin in 2012? Bitch, please! No, really, please run in 2012, bitch. ;)

by richardshort2001 on 04/22/2008 02:03:16 AM EST

Obama by 1% (none / 0)
I don't know why, just going on a a hunch and a bit of wishful thinking.

by no way on 04/22/2008 08:20:30 AM EST

[ Parent ]
My take (none / 0)

Bobo, seems like you're also trying to lower expectations the way your poll is designed. :)

I think Sen. Clinton will win by 6%.

Obviously not a very adventurous hunch of mine since it broadly reflects the polls.

What does 6% mean? It's a moral victory for Obama much as Bill Clinton's comeback kid 2nd place finish in NH back in the day.

That said, Sen. Clinton will be able to soldier on to IN and NC. Even if such a narrow victory falls woefully short of the margin she needs to have a shot at the popular vote (minus the caucus states without any vote tallies, mind you).

6% will be seen as Obama weathering the storm of the various controversies, trivial though most of them are. He's already ascribed teflon qualities.

This in turn allays possible fears some superdelegates may have had and I expect Obama to get a steady stream of endorsements all the way to IN and NC, where I think Obama will finally wrap things up and Sen. Clinton concede.

 

by charlesf on 04/22/2008 08:57:45 AM EST

Fearless Prediction (none / 0)

Obama +1 =   Hillary continues campaign

Clinton +1 =   Hillary continues campaign

Comet destroys remaining primary states plus FL and MI  and DNC headquarters leaving PR and Guam =  Hillary continues campaign.  New campaign add " Its 3 AM and a comet...." or " Obama's anti-comet plan doesn't protect all citizens"

Bill caught in orgy with Spitzer and several hookers.   =   Hillary continues campaign  New campaign strategist Bob Guccione courts swinger vote as " key to the remaining primaries" Hillarys cleavage returns.

Absolutely no mathematical chance for Hillary to win =  Hillary continues campaign

 

by MRFred on 04/22/2008 10:01:27 AM EST

spewing coffee through nose... (none / 0)

"Bill caught in orgy with Spitzer and several hookers.   =   Hillary continues campaign"

Ah, the sympathy vote, right?

by bfaul on 04/22/2008 12:49:25 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Gee (none / 0)

I was hoping

New campaign strategist Bob Guccione courts swinger vote as " key to the remaining primaries" Hillarys cleavage returns.

would illicit spewing

by MRFred on 04/22/2008 03:45:16 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Nah (none / 0)
I think Hillary is smart, but I kind of blanche at the thought of her cleavage.

by bfaul on 04/22/2008 05:45:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Clinton by 6% (none / 0)
Not quite enough for Obama to get her to drop out.  Of course she's not dropping out before Guam, so it's a moot point.  She's obviously taking the Huckster strategy, and I think it's going to be good for Obama in the fall. 

by schmoab on 04/22/2008 11:47:14 AM EST

Hillary by 10% (none / 0)
I hope I'm wrong.

by KenTX on 04/22/2008 12:24:19 PM EST

[ Parent ]
DAMN YOU!!! (none / 0)
It's your fault

Palin in 2012? Bitch, please! No, really, please run in 2012, bitch. ;)

by richardshort2001 on 04/23/2008 02:20:45 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Nobody is sicker about it than me. (none / 0)
She ain't gettin out now. In fact, she's got a head of steam.

by KenTX on 04/23/2008 02:24:44 AM EST

[ Parent ]
not a bad result for her (none / 0)
Basically Rev Wright and Bitter helped swing the late deciders in her direction.  Hopefully he'll figure out how to turn this trend around for Indiana.  Indiana is an interesting mix between Iowa and PA/OH.  The rural and city center vote should heavily favor Obama, but the factory-type workers will go to Hillary.  This one may be decided by the Indianapolis suburbs.  Around Gary, he will have the advantage of being from Chicago.  I'm starting to think Obama is going to sweep in 2 weeks.  NC is bad for Hillary--large AA and college educated populations.  What's her rallying cry then?  On to Oregon?  She's got a good chance in WV and KY, but they aren't big states so they don't really count.  This may have been Clinton's Last Stand. 

by schmoab on 04/23/2008 12:51:58 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I assure you (none / 0)
It was.

by ProfRich on 04/23/2008 01:10:32 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Rural (none / 0)
The rural and city center vote should heavily favor Obama...

What makes you think the Indiana rural vote will go for Obama? That's not what happened in Pennsylvania.

by Twba on 04/25/2008 01:42:35 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Here's why (none / 0)
I am not expert at all on the Midwest electorate but apparently the difference between PA and OH rural voters and IN is Catholicism.  Catholic voters love those strong women in charge (Mary) in a way Protestant voters don't.  I haven't done the work myself, but people who generally know what they are talking about seem to think this.

by ProfRich on 04/25/2008 01:59:22 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Demographics (none / 0)
Are there many rural Catholics in Missouri?

by Twba on 04/25/2008 02:22:26 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I dunno (none / 0)

Do you?

by ProfRich on 04/25/2008 02:38:58 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Religion is only one factor (none / 0)
Pennsylvania has a high percentage of Catholics compared to Ohio, Missouri and Indiana. Obama didn't win any rural counties in Missouri or Ohio. He only won five counties in all of MO, five counties in all of OH and seven counties in PA. I doubt that he will do well in rural Indiana. His coalition is looking more and more like George McGovern's. Obama wins inner cities, college towns and government employees. He is not quite uniting the country.

by Twba on 04/25/2008 03:03:07 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Clinton by 8% (none / 0)
Write it down*


*That way you can make fun of my botched prediction even more.

by ihavenobias on 04/22/2008 12:25:01 PM EST

I guess I should have read your post Bobo (none / 0)
I was rushed and just responded. I didn't realize you said 8%.

Uh oh, we can't both be right...we just can't! ;)

by ihavenobias on 04/22/2008 01:02:45 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I guess you were right (none / 0)
The only question is, were you off by 2% (Team Clinton's interpretation) or 1% (Team Obama). What an exciting new substantive issue for us to bicker about while McCain campaigns for president.

by hazmat on 04/23/2008 02:20:50 PM EST

[ Parent ]
agreed (none / 0)

"My prediction: Hillary by 8%"

That sounds about right to me.

by bfaul on 04/22/2008 12:50:50 PM EST

My prediction (none / 0)

Hillary will claim an overwhelming inevitable come-from-behind moral victory regardless of whether she barely wins, loses, or wins by a large margin. And as Barack pulls away from her in the national polls, the sound you hear from PA is the sound of the juicy turd that is the excreted remains of whatever support is left over from her bitter and divisive campaign flushing down the toilet of presidential history. Skloooshhhhhhhsgrwlh!

by hazmat on 04/22/2008 02:04:01 PM EST

Hard to say (none / 0)

And in some sense unless Obama wins, its irrelevant.  I had been impressed with how the bitter controversy had really had no effect but then saw Obama dipping severely after the "debate" (read ambush) last week.

But it appears Obama may have that fireproof quality of Clinton and Reagan.

Boing!!!

I understand that is a national poll and this is a state election but it leads me to believe the polling period that showed Hillary with a 5 point lead was actually her high water mark of late.

Therefore I am going with Hillary by 3.  Which feels weird since if you asked yesterday I would have called for her to outperform her polling.

by ProfRich on 04/22/2008 02:18:39 PM EST

How to be fireproof (none / 0)

...Don't run as a member of the other party, appealing only to its base, and attacking your own base constantly. Obama has been a great candidate, sure, but the reason Hillary isn't fireproof is that (contrary to her core message) she's discarded all the most important lessons of politics in the last 20 years (don't alienate the base) and kept the worst ones (attack the other guy until you both look equally unpalatable). Obama has done the opposite on both, shoring up base support while appearing moderate, and attacking the opponent only when necessary.

I know I'm coming over the top this morning but I am soooo ready for this to end. For the love of god PA, drive the wooden stake already! Yeah, yeah pigs will fly first, but one can always "cling" to hope. 

by hazmat on 04/22/2008 02:59:28 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I think (none / 0)

he is talking about Bill Clinton being fire proof.

Remember how his numbers went up during the impeachment and the Republicans screaming "Don't you people understand? He got a blow job!" 

by z1p101 on 04/23/2008 08:06:53 AM EST

[ Parent ]
OK Guys - Pennsylvania Prediction Time... | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 hidden)
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