In other election news... The Senate Races!

Email Print posted by ProfRich 05/12/2008 02:51:10 PM EST

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If you think the GOP is screwed in the race for the White House, wait till you see the latest Senate polling data.

Not that anyone is paying attention but here is a breakdown of the Senate Races 2008.

The short version is this.

There are 21 seats up that are currently Republican.

8 of those seem safe

5 have a 5-10% lead

3 have a lead under 5%

5 are losing

The Dems need nine pickups to break filibuster.

 
There are 12 incumbent Dems running.

11 are safe.

Tom Harkin in Iowa is barely in the 5-10% lead category at 10%.  He is the most threatened according to current polling.

Scroll through the list below.  Some of what you read might stun you.

Also keep in mind all the Safe GOP guys are polling from January or no polling at all. (GA has new polling).  ID, KY, SC and TN form the “Vulnerable” category is old polling.  ALL new polls have trended Dem since January.

 
GOP Incumbents seats

 
No Data (but almost certainly safe)

KS- Roberts (R-I)

NE- Johanns (R)

WY- Barrasso (R-I)

 
Safe

AL- Sessions (R-I) 57%         &nb sp;  Figures (D) 36%

GA- Chambliss (R-I)   &nbs p;    & nbsp;   &nbs p;   +14% or more over all challengers

ME- Collins (R-I) 54%         &nb sp;       Collins (D) 38%

MS- Wicker (R) 64%         &nb sp;         Musgrove (D) 35%

OK- Inhofe (R-I) 57%         &nb sp;       Rice (D) 36%

 
Vulnerable (10% or less lead)

ID- Risch (R-I) 42%         &nb sp;         LaRocco (D) 32%

KY- McConnell (R-I) 48%         &nb sp; Stumbo (D) 41%

MN- Coleman (R-I) 50%         &nb sp;   Franken (D) 43%

SC- Graham (R-I) 54%         &nb sp;     Unnamed Dem 44%

TN- Alexander (R-I) 54%         &nb sp; Unnamed Dem 44%

 
Very vulnerable (5% or less lead)

AK- Stevens (R-I) 46%         &nb sp;    Begich (D) 45%

OR- Smith (R-I) 45%         &nb sp;        Merkeley (D) 42%

TX- Cornyn (R-I) 47%         &nb sp;      Noriega (D) 43%

 
In Trouble (losing)

CO- Schaffer (R) 42%         &nb sp;       Udall (D) 45%

NC- Dole (R) 47%         &nb sp;         &nb sp;   Hagan (D) 48%

NH- Sununu (R-I) 43%         &nb sp;     Shaheen (D) 43%

NM- Pearce (R) 40%         &nb sp;          Udall (D) 54%

VA- Gilmore (R) 37%         &nb sp;        Warner (D) 55%

 
Dem Incumbents

Safe

AR- Pryor (D-I)   &nbs p;    & nbsp;   &nbs p;    & nbsp;   &nbs p;  Uncontested

DE- Biden (D-I) 58%         &nb sp;        Unnamed GOP 41%

IL- Durbin (D-I) 60%         &nb sp;        Saerberg (R) 38%

LA- Landreaux (D-I) 50%         &nb sp; Kennedy (R) 38%

MA- Kerry (D-I) 80%         &nb sp;        Unnamed GOP 20%

MI- Levin (D-I) 54%         &nb sp;          Hoogendyk (R) 37%

MT- Baucus (D-I) 63%         &nb sp;     Unnamed GOP 32%

NJ- Lautenburg (D-I) 54%          Pennacchio (R) 36%

RI- Reed (D-I) Reed 78%         &nb sp; Unnamed GOP 22%

SD- Johnson (D-I) 63%         &nb sp;   Dykstr a (R) 28%

WV- Rockefeller (D-I) 63%          Unnamed GOP 37%


Vulnerable  (10% or less lead)

IA- Harkin (D-I) 54%         &nb sp;         Unn amed GOP 44%

 
Very vulnerable (5% or less lead)

None


In Trouble (losing)

None
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In other election news... The Senate Races! | 9 comments (9 topical, 0 hidden)
Good snapshot for today. (none / 0)
Keep it on your desktop and get a new one each moth until August so we can see trends (or none)

Thanks!

by MedfordTim on 05/12/2008 04:01:00 PM EST

Thanks for the breakdown (none / 0)

by ihavenobias on 05/12/2008 10:21:28 PM EST

Thanks for the info (none / 0)
is very nice

though 9 to break filibuster is more like 10 since 51 is counting McCain's puppeteer.  I think the only reasons he caucuses with the Dems is so right wing talking heads can keep blaming everything on "the Democrat Senate".

by richardshort2001 on 05/13/2008 12:00:11 AM EST

I have thought a lot about Lieberman here (none / 0)

I suspect that in a 59-1-40 Senate (which is the inly scenario he matters in) he would be right back in the Dem fold since anything else would seriosuly jeopardize his positioning in the leadership and commitees as well as weakening him in future Senate runs in CT.

The man is just a political opportunist with strong ties to defense contractors which means he (a) will do what gets him the most power and that is not joining a paltry GOP minority and (b) needs a strong commitee slot to pad his backers pockets.

Anyway in a 59-1-40 (I know its really 58-2-40 but the other indy ain't going right) it won't be that hard to find one GOPer to break the filibuster for some pork or something if need be so Joe would be dickless really.  He will come back to the fold, I don't really want him back, but he will come back. 

by ProfRich on 05/13/2008 12:19:52 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Oregon (none / 0)
I'm hoping Steve Novick goes up against Smith in Oregon rather than Merkley. 

by desertpear on 05/13/2008 12:41:49 PM EST

Novick and Merkeley (none / 0)

I debated that too.  I knew from here that you guys preferred Novick but after looking at it it seemed slightly more likely Merkeley will get the nomination.

For the record, Novick does two points worse against Smith which still puts Smith in significant trouble for an incumbent.

I have never been to Roegon and know nothing about this race.  Just the polling data and what you Oregonians say.  If y'all tell me its gonna be Novick, I will take your word.

by ProfRich on 05/13/2008 01:28:49 PM EST

[ Parent ]
well (none / 0)
I can't vote for him since I'm in Washington at the moment, but I am convincing people like my 80-year-old liberal mom and her friends ;)  I have donated to his campaign and have this gut feeling he just might pull off a win.   I think either one will win over Smith in the end.   Hopefully that isn't just wishful thinking.  Oregonians are as sick of the war as any.

by desertpear on 05/13/2008 02:00:33 PM EST

[ Parent ]
More detail on the CO race (none / 0)
The CO race between Schaffer and Udall is an open seat.  The horrible, horrible, Wayne Allard has shockingly stuck to his campaign pledge to not seek a third term.  Udall is a very popular US Representative from the northern Denver/Boulder area.  He's pretty smart and doesn't have much baggage that I've seen.  I think he will pull that one out. 

by jawill11 on 05/13/2008 01:58:22 PM EST

It is even worse (none / 0)

For the GOP in the House. My own district will be sending a Democrat to the House for the first time in 20 years in 09. A lot of my neighboring districts will be doing the same.

by z1p101 on 05/13/2008 07:04:46 PM EST

In other election news... The Senate Races! | 9 comments (9 topical, 0 hidden)
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