Republicans Who Just Don't Get It

Email Print posted by Cenk 05/14/2008 12:18:39 PM EST

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The Republicans lost another crucial election last night. It was their third special election loss in a row. All three were deeply Republican districts in the past. This one was in the heart of Mississippi and was in a district that George Bush won with 62% of the vote in 2004.

The Republicans are in deep, deep trouble. If they lose in these districts (the other two were a Louisiana seat they had kept for three decades and Dennis Hastert's former seat in Illinois), they can literally lose anywhere. The whole electoral map can be redrawn.

So, what's their new plan? Go further to the right! No, you schmucks, that's what got you in trouble in the first place. The problem is the Republican Party has become so extreme there are no moderates left to tell them they should head in the opposite direction.

Usually when a political party is beaten this bad (as they were in 2006 and the elections since then), they correct course by going toward the other side of the political spectrum. They head to the center to pick up lost ground. The Republicans, on the other hand, have been like drunken gamblers who are sure that their next double down bet is going to make it all up. If we just double down one more time ...

Well, they did double their bets on these special elections. They spent $1.3 million in Mississippi of the precious $7.2 million the NRCC had left. They brought in Dick Cheney to campaign for their candidate (talk about heading in the wrong direction). And they lost again.

They have got to realize that they are not unpopular because they haven't been true enough to their principles, it's because they have. Their principles are merciless and lack all compassion. And it turns out that the American people look for some degree of compassion and competence out of their leaders. So, the Republicans are in a bind.

They wanted to drown government in a bathtub. They did and wound up drowning their own party instead. It turns out the American people want a government. They think it serves a purpose.

The problem isn't that conservative principles are never right. Of course it makes sense to lower taxes when the highest marginal tax rate is at 70%, as it was in 1980 when Reagan came into office. But equally obvious is that at some point taxes can be too low for the government to function effectively. And when you have a gigantic national deficit, a government that can't respond to national emergencies like Hurricane Katrina and a disastrous war you can't pay for - that might be the point where taxes are simply too low to pay for the government the American people want and expect.  

There might be a time for war, but it's not the answer at all times for any reason at all. We might have to get tough on immigration policies, but we don't have to crush people's souls to do it. There might be a time to get tougher on crime, but the answer isn't always vengeance. The Republicans have lost sight of all moderation.

If the Republicans keep heading due right, they will burn their party to the ground. And someone like Arnold Schwarzenegger or Charlie Christ will have to rebuild from the ground up as a more moderate, reasonable party. But it will take decades.

Remember George Bush ran as a "compassionate conservative" in 2000 and won with lots of smokes and mirrors by convincing people that he was a kindhearted Republican. I think history will look back at 2004 as the aberration. It will be the outlier in history.

In 2000, it was hard to know what Bush was exactly up to and he lied about his intentions (remember his "no nation building" and "humble foreign policy" pledges). But in 2004, we should have known what we were getting into. That election will be known as the Great Mistake.

But right now, as we speak, the American people are looking to correct that mistake. And when the Republicans run their tired, old campaigns based on pessimism, attack ads, fear-mongering and dark outlook, they will get crushed. Bank on it. There is a tidal wave coming in 2008. And apparently, the Republicans have no idea what is about to hit them.

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Republicans Who Just Don't Get It | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 hidden)
Cenk! Shhhhhhhhhh.... (none / 1)
When you talk about Democrats who run too far to the right, I'm with you.  But let the lemmings run off the cliff, will you?

As to 2004, I think it was just a perfect time for Bush/Cheney (and they STILL barely won).  The "fear" strategy worked.  Soon after the election, many people started "getting it", but it was too late.

It's another day in paradise...

by happyhominid on 05/14/2008 01:55:33 PM EST

What is wrong with the GOP (none / 0)

Philiosophically this is easy.  Everything.

But I want to talk about why the political machine is breaking down.

First, the GOP views their time in power as profit taking.  They make no attempt to run an effective, constructive government.  They simply stuff their pockets as fast as they can, taking as much as possible before the shit storm that washes them away.  Look at 1920-1932 if you don't believe me.  In a weird way, this was part of the plan.

Second, I think their inability to move to the center is partly because they have a serious problem with their base.  In that it doesn't really like their candidate.  McCain is viewed as liberal, not particularly religious and indifferent at best on tax cuts.  This will not generate big voter turnout.  You run to the center to win independents but you need the base to turnout to win as well.  McCain hasn't figure out a way to do both.  He might come up with one or he might not.  It might be impossible.

Third, and this is related to the second point, the GOP has lost all control of the Reagan coalition.  The four pieces of the Republican party are falling apart.  In 1968, Nixon married the racists to the war hawks and tax/regulation-haters to create the modern Republican Party.  In 1980 Regan brought in the Fundamentalist Christians.

Now, with a war hawk candidate, the tax haters know their part but the Jesus freaks are lukewarm and might not turn out, which is disastrous for the party because they comprise the most people.  War hawks and tax/regulation haters supply money and clout, not actual bodies.  A bigger problem comes from the racists.  Sure, they are going to vote like crazy against the black guy but they had (possibly fatally) wounded the party by making immigration an issue.  Recall how Bush, Cheney and the GOP establishment reacted to his call for a wall and mass deportation.  They were horrified.  The reason was twofold.  First it hurt the steady supply of cheap, benefit free labor large corporations  thrived on.  but that had little to do with electoral politics.  More importantly, it polarized and agitated the hispanic voters.  This is a massive (as much as 20%) and fastest growing voting block in the US and one Bush had done an amazing job pulling over to the right. (He split the brown vote in 2000 and 2004).  In 2006 they lost that vote bad and now McCain can either piss off the racists or go begging to the brown folks which probably won't work anyway.

Significantly taking the hispanic vote from 50/50 to say 60/40 will cost the GOP the southwest and weaken them in their most important stronghold- Texas.

This is why I believe the party has fallen apart and why McCain is stuck running to the right almost three months after winning the nomination. 

by ProfRich on 05/14/2008 02:35:36 PM EST

House and Senate (none / 0)

You're talking primarily presidential politics, but I think the House and the Senate are going to play a bigger role this year.  If both of these go heavily Democratic a McCain presidency will be completely ineffective unless he compromises on virtually everything.  I'm of the opinion that this wouldn't necessarily be a bad fit, since I don't like a single party controlling all of the government.  So my dirty little secret is that I don't much care if McCain wins or loses as long as his party loses the other two branches of government entirely.

I think anyone else but McCain on the Republican side would have resulted in a deadlocked government under those circumstances.  I still worry that if McCain were to win he would allow incompetents and party loyalists to continue to remain at the head of the important agencies.  This is among the worst aspect of the Bush/Cheney lame-ass administration.   

by bfaul on 05/14/2008 06:08:18 PM EST

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Republicans Who Just Don't Get It | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 hidden)
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