Uggghh

Email Print posted by richardshort2001 05/21/2008 12:12:20 AM EST

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I know I am going to regret this.

I retract my belief that Hillary is defeated.

With another huge popular vote win in KY, after the meeting on the 31st where they will decide how to seat FL and MI Hillary might pull something out during that meeting and be able to come within 100,000.  With the contests left it is conceivable that she will win the popular vote.  If she does this the Supers will be in a no win situation.  Either way could be viewed as undemocratic.  They might overturn the pleged delegates.  I still don't think this is likely, but I am willing to concede that it resonably COULD happen.

*Waits for the verbal lashings

And if it turns out this way Obama will have noone to blame but himself.  Likely, if he had campaigned in WV and KY those races would have been a LOT closer.

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Uggghh | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 hidden)
Quitter! (none / 0)
Don't let this nonsense throw you. Popular vote doesn't matter - it's the delegates - and even if they did, the only way Clinton gets more than Obama is by counting FLA & Mich - and that ain't gonna happen the way Hillary wants.

It's Obama. Get used to it.

by MedfordTim on 05/21/2008 01:11:10 AM EST

Nope (none / 0)
FL and MI will not even come very close to giving it to Clinton.  She loses either way.

by ProfRich on 05/21/2008 09:22:33 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Not only that, (none / 0)
In order for Clinton to even come close to winning the popular vote is if they not only count FL and MI, but if they give Obama none of the credit for the 40% undeclared vote in MI.  Talk about decidedly undemocratic. 

I can understand why Clinton and her people are pushing this line that it would be undemocratic to not count the votes, even though it is in no way fair to count MI (FL I could live with, at least they were both on the ballot).  They are career politicians who will do and say anything to win.  I think it represents the worst aspects of our political system and solidifies why I do not want her as my candidate.  What amazes me is how her followers are buying this argument and not seeing its blatent hypocracy.  

by jawill11 on 05/21/2008 09:35:50 AM EST

[ Parent ]
and when hell is full (none / 0)
the dead will rise and walk the earth

by LORD FOUL on 05/21/2008 07:51:17 AM EST

Shaun of the Dead (none / 0)
one of my favorite movies. Esp. the closing credits. Cricket bats, anyone?

by hazmat on 05/21/2008 01:42:22 PM EST

[ Parent ]
LPs (none / 0)
or CDs which work better?

by LORD FOUL on 05/21/2008 03:13:27 PM EST

[ Parent ]
death by cd (none / 0)

hey I just saw your reply to an old post from a while ago. Don't have the link handy, but I probably would have brought a little flame retardant with me for that "Go to Hell, Hillary" post if I had seen it earlier. You're okay in my book.

by hazmat on 05/21/2008 03:33:57 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Show me the math (none / 0)

Its easy now. There are only three contests left and fewer than 300 superDs.  Explain how they will all break.  Go ahead and count MI and FL.  I want to see it.

Would be the first time EVER I have seen any Hillary supporter, official or not, talk in terms of numbers. 

by ProfRich on 05/21/2008 09:37:57 AM EST

Not a Hillary supporter (none / 0)
Just acknowleging a possibility.  I wouldn't give her more than a 5% chance, but its possible.

Look best case scenario in MI and FL gives Clinton a lead of about 100,000.  We all know that probably won't be the way they are counted.  If you give Obama ALL of the 238,168 Uncommitted voters he gets a lead of 138,000.  I would say this is also unlikely.  The likely scenario is between 0 and 100% for Obama, let's assume 75%.  That gives Obama a 78,000 vote lead.  That is a very narrow margin.  I would say that it is possible, not likely, but possible for her to get those votes in the 3 contests remaining. 

There is no math I can show for superdelegates going to Clinton.  They are individuals, but it COULD (again, very important word) be that the reason a lot of those remaining haven't already jumped on the very popular Obama bandwagon, is because those particular people view Clinton as the "more electable" candidate.  They COULD be waiting for a legitimate metric to cast their vote for her.  The popular vote would be that metric.

Again, I think it is highly unlikely.  I have simply chosen to refrain from attacking Hillary for staying in until at least June 4th when we can be sure she won't win.

by richardshort2001 on 05/21/2008 11:17:29 AM EST

[ Parent ]
What I think IS likely (none / 0)
She keeps running after June 3 on the "delegates can change their mind" platform, especially if she leads in the popular vote.  Obama offers her VP to keep it from going to the convention. 

With their powers combined...

I doubt McCain has ANY chance of beating Obamaton.

by richardshort2001 on 05/21/2008 11:55:23 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Maybe (none / 0)

But I suspect if she wants the VP job she can have it.

If she keeps running it won't matter, once he get the magic number and the seating fight is settled she will become a farce and will be covered as such by all non-rightie media.

Obama should have all the pledged and "committed" superDs he need (even with MI and FL) by June 5th or so and then she becomes a circus sideshow.

Already since Russert made her funeral oration, she has plummeted in the polls. 

by ProfRich on 05/21/2008 12:27:48 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Jim Webb (none / 0)
Is out there saying very loudly that he is not interested in the VP spot, while he makes the rounds on talk shows and news programs. If hillary is truly "not interested" in the VP slot she better start saying so. She's in danger of once again getting preempted by a far superior politician, but this time one with better credentials than she has.

by hazmat on 05/21/2008 01:46:43 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I have refrained from attacking her too (none / 0)

But I am not going to pretend she can win without the entire playing field shifting dramatically.

Best case scenario she will need about 70% or so of the remaining SuperDs.  Considering the absolute landslide of SuperD to Obama since  Iowa this is extremely hard to imagine.

Couple this with her absolutely cratering polling numbers nationwide (Obama over +15 in Gallup, +8 in Rasmussen) and it is a "fairy tale." 

We can be fair and treat her with respect and dignity but we don't have to trumpet her "I am still in this nonsense" to do so.

I liked Edwards, what would y'all think of me if I had said the day before Edwards dropped out he still had a chance?  You would have called me a silly, naive, Koo-aid drinker.  Why do we have to pretend whatever new "math" and "logic" the Hillary campaign e-mails out each day makes sense?  Its like letting the right wing nuts have equal time on CNN and MSNBC because we treat their reality as valid as actual reality.

Let it go.  She ran.  People voted.   She lost.  The End. 

by ProfRich on 05/21/2008 12:37:09 PM EST

[ Parent ]
nailed it again Rich (none / 0)

While certain Hillary supporters on this forum cry foul about perceived media bias and manufactured claims of sexism and lack of general fairness, if the tables were turned, or any other candidate were in Hillary's position, we wouldn't be having this conversation. Her last name is Clinton, and that's the bottom line.

That being said, I think Richard should note that most of the national figures who previously supported Hillary or were outspoken DLC members (Rahm Emmanuel is the most striking example) have clearly begun to posture with Obama vs. McCain, while taking care not to slight Hillary overtly. The latest nation-wide gallup polls show Obama with a substantial and probably insurmountable lead over Hillary in public support. 

Kentucky and WV matter, yes, but as others have pointed out, almost half of the registered democrats there are republicans for practical purposes. I think the party has moved on, and I'm sure there's been communication behind the scenes about Hillary's debt, which is probably the biggest issue at this point. I watched her victory speech and it seemed like the most animated part of it was when she told the crowd to visit her website and donate. Maybe I'm being pollyannish but that's my reading of the tea-leaves.

by hazmat on 05/21/2008 01:59:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
agree 100% (none / 0)

Hillary doesn't seem to acknowledge that many democrats just don't want to continue the Bush-Clinton dynasty.  That was one of my biggest problems with her campaign from the beginning and one of the reasons I went with Edwards.  Then her campaign went negative against Obama and I lost any sympathy for her.  It does suck for her that what had initially seemed like an easy run to the White House was snatched away by Obama, but hey, he had to strike while the iron was hot too. 

It bums me out that the Kentucky and WV wins are supposed to mean Hillary is more electable when these elections were so strongly affected by racist attitudes.  I read this in an article yesterday (forgot the source, sorry) "Oregon isn't really representative of the country."  This wasn't even from the Hillary camp.  Oregon is representative of the country, but represents the younger, more liberal, educated demographic.  You can't just deny that these people are part of the population.

sorry to ramble.  my Oregon roots are showing. 

by desertpear on 05/21/2008 02:44:14 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Uggghh | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 hidden)
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