Senate Update

Email Print posted by ProfRich 05/29/2008 05:08:13 PM EST

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There has been a spate of recent Senate race polls so I thought I would update the races.

Not that anyone is paying attention but here is a breakdown of the Senate Races 2008.
The short version is this.
There are 21 seats up that are currently Republican.
5 of those seem safe (was 8)
5 have a 5-10% lead (was 5)
5 have a lead under 5% (was 3)
6 are losing (was 5)
The Dems need nine pickups to break filibuster.

There are 12 incumbent Dems running.
10 are safe. (was 10)
Tom Harkin in Iowa is barely in the 5-10% lead category at 10%.  Lautenburg in NJ is also up by 10% in the first poll since we learned the GOP challengers.  They are the most threatened according to current polling.
Scroll through the list below.  Some of what you read might stun you.  The last column is change since my last post.


GOP Incumbents seats

Safe
AL- Sessions (R-I) 57%    Figures (D) 36%
KS- Roberts (R-I) 52%    Unnamed D 40%     New
NE-Johanns (R) 57%        Kleeb (D) 36%    New
OK- Inhofe (R-I) 57%        Rice (D) 36%
WY- Barasso (R-I) 70%    Unnamed D 30%    New


Vulnerable (10% or less lead)
ID- Risch (R-I) 42%        LaRocco (D) 32%
SC- Graham (R-I) 54%    Unnamed Dem 44%
TN- Alexander (R-I) 54%    Unnamed Dem 44%
GA- Chambliss (R-I) 53%    Unnamed (D)    46%    New
ME- Collins (R-I) 52%    Collins (D) 42%    R loses 6%


Very vulnerable (5% or less lead)
MN- Coleman (R-I) 47%    Franken (D) 45%    R loses 5%
OR- Smith (R-I) 45%        Merkeley (D) 42%
TX- Cornyn (R-I) 48%    Noriega (D) 44%    No change
NC- Dole (R) 50%        Hagan (D) 46%    R gains 5%
MS- Wicker (R) 46%        Musgrove (D) 42%    New

In Trouble (losing)
CO- Schaffer (R) 41%    Udall (D) 47%    R loses 4%
NH- Sununu (R-I) 43%    Shaheen (D) 50%    R loses 1%
NM- Pearce (R) 40%        Udall (D) 54%
VA- Gilmore (R) 37%    Warner (D) 55%
AK- Stevens (R-I) 44%    Begich (D) 48%    R loses 5%
KY- McConnell (R-I) 48%    Stumbo (D) 41%    New


Dem Incumbents
Safe
AR- Pryor (D-I)        Uncontested
DE- Biden (D-I) 58%        Unnamed GOP 41%
IL- Durbin (D-I) 60%        Saerberg (R) 38%
LA- Landreaux (D-I) 50%    Kennedy (R) 38%
MA- Kerry (D-I) 80%        Unnamed GOP 20%
MI- Levin (D-I) 54%        Hoogendyk (R) 37%
MT- Baucus (D-I) 63%    Unnamed GOP 32%
RI- Reed (D-I) Reed 78%    Unnamed GOP 22%
SD- Johnson (D-I) 63%    Dykstra (R) 28%
WV- Rockefeller (D-I) 63%    Unnamed GOP 37%

Vulnerable  (10% or less lead)
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Senate Update | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 hidden)
noteable (none / 0)
4 of your 5 "very vulnerables" have less than 50%. Gordon Smith is a goner, but that's just my opinion. He's not all bad, done some nice work on depressive disorders. But he's mostly bad. He's a good example of a "family values" politician (i.e. if you homeschool your kids I'm your guy). He got religion after the '06 election and has been working hard ever since to portray himself as a moderate. In reality he voted with the Bush administration on just about everything prior and since. I hope Merkely ties Bush around his neck like a biblical millstone and chucks him overboard so we can say "buh bye".

by hazmat on 05/29/2008 06:46:15 PM EST

pleeeeease go Gordon! (none / 0)
It was interesting watching the Merkley and Novick race and I'm really hoping Merkley beats Smith and sends him packing.  I'm behind him 100%, but can't vote for him here in Washington state.

by desertpear on 05/30/2008 01:17:50 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Gets worse for the GOP (none / 0)

Today a poll came out putting the MS seat in extreme danger.

The Dem has a one point lead now moving Roger Wicker from the very vulnerable list to the trouble list.

So 5 safe, 5 vulnerable, 4 very vulnerable, 7 losing.

If you use the old saw that an incumbent has to be above 50% at this time to win reelection 12 of the 21 GOP Senators are on thier way to defeat. (Dole is at 50% now but her average of polls is well under).

All the Dems seem fine.

Right now, the Dems should be able to stop Cloture in 2009 and have an outside shot at a veto-proof majority. 

by ProfRich on 05/30/2008 11:42:06 AM EST

Senate Update | 3 comments (3 topical, 0 hidden)
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