EV Count Update for 5/08 FINALLY WITH 33 states!

Email Print posted by adamg 05/08/2008 05:35:03 PM EST

Google Technorati del.icio.us digg reddit
If you like this story, digg it!
Finally we have a new state added to the rolls, GA is in!

33 states now, with 432 EVs.

GA goes for the meat grinder, not surprisingly.

WI, though, has the butcher ahead by 4 against both dems.

MO also has the madman winning.

So here are the numbers as of now:

With 2/3 of states reporting representing 80.3% of EVs

Clinton vs Meat Grinder

Clinton: 226, 52.3%
Meat Grinder: 206, 47.7%

Obama vs Meat Grinder

Obama: 189: 43.8%
Meat Grinder: 243 56.3%

I must admit it looks bad for Obama, he's been losing to the Meat Grinder for some time now and Clinton has been winning for some time.

However, I can't help but think that Clinton getting the nomination now would create such a firestorm that McCain would end up winning anyway.

Your thoughts?

< A Lou Dobbs induced orgasm | WTF?? Since WHEN can't you show nakidity? >
 Display:
EV Count Update for 5/08 FINALLY WITH 33 states! | 2 comments (2 topical, 0 hidden)
My take (none / 0)

Lets drop that "meat grinder" thingie. He's called McCain.

Not sure where you get your numbers from. I looked at both electoral-vote.com and fivethirtyeight.com. Both sites have different EV tallies. In one, Clinton does better, in the other Obama.

In any case, one the Dem race is entirely wrapped up and the healing process begins and McCain comes under greater scrutiny, things will again change.

I feel very good about Obama's chances in autumn. :) 

by charlesf on 05/10/2008 07:21:53 AM EST

thanks (none / 0)
thanks for pointing out fivethirtyeight.com, it is by far the best electoral vote tracking site. One giant meta analysis of all the most recent polls, taking into account the date of the polls, the reliability of the posters and random chance. They even run 10,000 simulatated elections based on things like state demographics, religious affilitiation, income and education, ect.

And the site is updated everyday for the most part.

From now on I will post an ev update on the TYT forum once a week, on Friday, to let the good people here know what's going on.

I will only use fivethirtyeight.com as my source, as I am a fan of statistics and their method is by far the best. Makes every other EV tracking site look downright primitive.

I will be glad to be able to cast aside my own spreadsheet which was starting to take too much time to maintain.

As to the results as of 5/10, well, Obama just barely loses to Mac 267.2-270.8 while Clinton loses 256.9-281.1.

In terms of popular vote: Obama loses 49.8-50.2
Clinton loses 49.5-50.5.

So the conclusion is Obama is more electable, just barely losing. As long as we end this primary soon, (the tsunami of superdelegates going to Obama will assure that) then we can put the beat down on Mac and get those popular vote numbers swinging the other way.

I will track both the % ev and % pop vote on excel day to day to see how the trend is headed. I will also include these in my weekly updates.

Till next Friday night, have a healthy and happy week.

by adamg on 05/11/2008 12:54:47 AM EST

EV Count Update for 5/08 FINALLY WITH 33 states! | 2 comments (2 topical, 0 hidden)
 Display: