The Young Turks

The Iraqis are now actively considering (and planning for) the ending of the US presence. Part of those considerations is turning to Iran to assume the training of the Iraqi army and police. The Iraqis will also assume full control of the Iraqi Intelligence service, removing the CIA effectively blinding the US on the ground, merging the service with the other intelligence gathering groups in the country, including the Iranian backed ones. Micheal Weir, CNN in Bahgdad June 13 2008

We have been repeatedly told the surge is working, if so, how did we get here?

The Myth of The Surge

The so called "success" of the surge is based solely on the fact that the Shia militia have been restrained by the pro-Maliki contingent, al Sadrs control of his group and the overall influence of Iran. Each group has been keeping the militia restrained in the response to the increase in American troops. This fact ,plus the partitioning of the Baghdad, Basra and other major cities along sectarian lines and the payments tendered to Suni sheiks to oppose the minimal al Queda forces in Iraq has resulted in the "sucess" in Iraq.

Withdrawal time line was set in 2003  

One constant from the right are strident outcry's at any attempt to set a withdrawal time table. The dirty little secret is that there has been a withdrawal time line all along;  the expiration of the UN mandate that authorizes the invasion of Iraq.

To that end the U.S. and Iraqi sides have been meeting for several weeks, trying to negotiate a Status of Forces accord, a common agreement between nations that establishes the conditions under which U.S. troops operate in a sovereign country. Results?

"Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, speaking in Amman, Jordan, said ongoing talks with the U.S. on a Status of Forces Agreement "have reached an impasse." The impasse, he said, came at the end of the first phase of negotiations, with others to follow "until we reach a decision that ensures the sovereignty of Iraq."

Meanwhile, one of Iraq's most influential clerics, Muqtada al Sadr, divided his thousands of followers into a smaller armed contingent that would be authorized to attack American troops and a much larger group that he he called on to show restraint against the American occupation." McClatchy News Service

The U.S. has similar agreements with 80 other nations, but the Iraqis have objected to the terms the Bush Administration are dictating, terms they arguably view as violations of their sovereignty and unprecedented among nations. Demands by Bush include 58 military bases, immunity from prosecution for both American troops and private contractors and control over Iraqi air space.

Iran: Game Set and Match 

Since the invasion Republicans were focused on finding or creating and  exploiting an al Qeada presence for political purposes  The 800 pound gorilla in the room was Iran who has been consolidating and increasing its influence in all areas of Iraqi life.

<Muqtada al Sadr (well, most of it, apperently Iranian orthodontists are in short supply .MRFred)

Consequently, as I stated in the lead in; the Iraqis are now actively considering ending the US presence and turning to..wait for it...Iran to assume the training of the Iraqi army and police. The Iraqis will also assume full control of the Iraqi Intelligence service, removing the CIA effectively blinding the US on the ground, merging the service with  Iranian backed ones.

With these revelations the shape of endgame should be clear. Best guess is that the Iraqis continue to reject the SOF until the expiration, we leave and Iran steps in.  Once that happens the "chaos" touted by McCain will most certainly take  place, first against the Suni , then the Kurds and any of the few fighters remaining stupid enough to claim to be al Qeada

Bush I was right .

I think it is ironic that the ultimate outcome was predicted by Bush the First and was a forgone conclusion since the very moment the first US soldier crossed the Kuwait, Iraqi border.

Finally, with US troops gone the agreements between US oil companies and Iraq will be vacated and the Iranians and the Iranian "influenced" Iraqis will control and / or influence about 30% of the known reserves of petroleum in the world.

In the mean time we are paying the tab for all of this fun.

So, in the end what will we have accomplished?

1. We did spread democracy to Iraq, unfortunately, the democracy we spread was Iranian style  democracy and influence.
   
2. We made our foreign oil supplies even more precarious by placing more under Iranian control and influence.
3. We have almost bankrupted the American Treasury.
4. We have dangerously depleted the Army and Marines and successfully outsourced many military functions to private companies controlled by Republican contributors.
5. We have adapted the torture methods of our enemies.
   
6. We have damaged, maybe irreparably ,American influence and standing in the world, particularly the Muslim countries.
7. We have allowed al Qeada to rebuild to pre 9/11 levels in safe haven provided by our "allies"
8. The Republicans have learned to use fear, threat and corruption to maintain political power at home and to invoke the "we are at war" mantra to bludgeon political advantage from the electorate when it suited their purposes. In most case the purposes were for personal gain.
   
9. We have given up many of the civil liberties we previously fought to preserve.
10. We only asked our troops to sacrifice,rewarding the rich with tax cuts and mortgaging the future of our Republic.

Mission accomplished.

Related Blogs:

Serendipity: How Republicans Are Losing The War

The United States Lacks a Comprehensive Plan to Destroy the Terrorist Threat

Afghanistan Falling Back Into Hands of Taliban and al Queda