Can't ANYONE add? Doesn't ANYONE notice?

Email Print posted by MedfordTim 07/25/2008 01:16:38 PM EST

Google Technorati del.icio.us digg reddit

I waited...and waited...and waited. I ain't waitin' no mo'.

Much as I like Olbermann, when a glaring error is overlooked (or at LEAST explained how it isn't an error after all) someone HAS to ask...WTF??


 

On Countdown's Wednesday night program, a new poll was unveiled. It included the question, "Who better represents your values?" I noticed the discrepancy immediately and expected someone in the studio to notice.

Not only wasn't it noticed or mentioned, it was repeated the next night on Race To The White House!

See if you notice what all these brilliant pundits neglected to point out...

Countdown.7-23-08 

Countdown.7-23-08

Race.TTWH.7-24-08 

Race To The White House.7-24-08

If you, like MSNBC, still can't see it, ask yourself why a poll would need a margin of error when the total is 105%...


< Friday Fun Post On Women: Do You Pay For Dinner? Drinks? | Meet the Bloggers >
 Display:
Can't ANYONE add? Doesn't ANYONE notice? | 57 comments (57 topical, 0 hidden)
The extra %5 (5.00 / 2)
includes Eurpoeans.

by Andrew Koenig on 07/25/2008 01:52:12 PM EST

Classic! (none / 0)
Yeah, we're all "citizens of the world" right? What a crock of shit!

by bobo1 on 07/25/2008 01:55:54 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Well (none / 0)
I do believe we are all citizens of the same planet. We are all connected - what we do affects others, whether it be ecologicaly, politically or spiritually. And vice versa.

by Andrew Koenig on 07/25/2008 02:04:40 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Whatever hippy. (none / 0)
Namaste.

by Spencer on 07/25/2008 02:37:37 PM EST

[ Parent ]
(rolling my eyes) (none / 0)
Typical lib, always looking to save the whales the raise my taxes.

by ihavenobias on 07/25/2008 02:38:33 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Did they allow multiple choices? (none / 0)
Or is NBC ("The National Barack Channel") really that mathmatically challenged? Hmm....

by bobo1 on 07/25/2008 01:33:58 PM EST

I predict (none / 0)
a correction will come out that the correct statistic is 48% to mccain and 47% to obama, and that this is a typo, either malicious or accidental. The 58/47 stat is not just counterintuitive, it contradicts the national polling data on who people are most likely to vote for. It does that by a wide enough margin to look suspect.

by hazmat on 07/25/2008 01:34:18 PM EST

The question must have been worded incorrectly (none / 1)
I doubt it was a pick one or the other poll.  Who knows and who cares... these polls are idiotic.  only 5% of the population is really paying any attention to the election right now anyway.  What the American people think at this point is totally irrelevant.  The election starts in September. 

by schmoab on 07/25/2008 01:45:16 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Obviously a Typo/Mental Error (none / 0)
It is no secret that MSNBC tilts to the left and the lead has been given to McCain. It's clear there were no purposive underpinnings here.

by Avi on 07/25/2008 01:43:53 PM EST

Correction (none / 0)
Olbermann and Maddow lean (sometimes very heavily) to the left.

Scarborough and Pat Buchanan are, well, I don't even have to finish that sentence.

Gregory, Matthews, Chuck Todd and so on, *at best* they are centrist, but hardly to the left, and they often buy into and repeat Republican framing.

Abrams? I think he's fair. It's not uncommon for him to give Obama a "loss" or McCain a "win" on issues I think aren't so clear.

by ihavenobias on 07/25/2008 01:50:06 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Thus "Tilt" (none / 0)
That's why I said slightly to the left because their most popular pundits are slightly left-leaning democrats.

by Avi on 07/25/2008 01:52:22 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Well, to be fair (none / 0)
You didn't include the modifier "slightly" in your original comment.

:)*








*Spencer approves the use of this emoticon.

by ihavenobias on 07/25/2008 01:54:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Tilts... (none / 0)
I thought "tilts" sufficed as weak terminology over say "leans" or something. lol

by Avi on 07/25/2008 02:06:31 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Please bias... (none / 0)
Let's imagine we're on the MSNBC political "boat" Olbermann and Maddow ANCHOR the left - they have leaned, fell over the left side of the boat and sank to the bottom of the left "abyss" Matthews is hanging over the left side of the boat with his whole face in the water with his "tingling legs" up in the air... Gregory, Todd and Abrams are holding Matthews' tingling feet as they struggle to keep some sort of "journalistic integrity" Scarborough is on the other side of the boat laughing at the calamity occuring on the left half, and Buchanan doesn't get in the boat anymore because he realizes the futility of the whole scenario...

by bobo1 on 07/25/2008 02:09:20 PM EST

[ Parent ]
What the hell is wrong with you? (none / 0)
None of those people are journalist with the possible exception of Todd and Gregory (who is conservative).  I swear y'all don't understand this whole industry.

by ProfRich on 07/25/2008 02:18:29 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I still cant see... (none / 0)
Where you get that Gregory is a McCain humping Conservative? Everytime I suffer through his show, I look but I really don't see it. Are you that far to the left Rich? But then again, you think the LA Times is Conservative - now I know you are smoking what MedfordTim is! :)

by bobo1 on 07/25/2008 02:57:37 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You clearly have never watched the show. (none / 0)
It's not like Gregory is really a conservative.  He just still buys into the old media framing about McCain (as laid out by you at the end of this comment).

by Spencer on 07/25/2008 03:07:48 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Also (none / 1)
there is this.

by ihavenobias on 07/25/2008 03:16:47 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I dont watch a lot... (none / 0)
His eyebrows drive me insane!!! :)

by bobo1 on 07/25/2008 03:48:32 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I think the LA Times is conservative? (none / 1)

I think there must be a skrull ProfRich out there.  I keep getting accused of posting things that I don't recall posting.  I've never even read the LA Times.

Aside from David Gregory being a Karl Rove backup dancer its possible that Gregory is an idiot and is incapable of seeing through Republican framing on any issue.  My annoyance with him is he always accepts the Republican basis and asks questions from there.

Case in point was yesterday when Obama gave a great high profile speech and the McCain campaign looks like its trying to survive a standing eight count he does a show on what Obama's weaknesses are.  I mean really now!

Even more specifically he was obsessed with a poll that said McCain gained ground in three battleground states while simultaneously ignoring the Gallup poll which showed an aggregate six point Obama bounce in the 11 purple states.  So I could believe he didn't do that on purpose, that he did it because some conservative presented it to him and he bought it.  

Of course this is a man who apparently didn't realize that dancing behind a rapping Karl Rove on camera was not a good career move when your entire value is based on an appearance of objectivity and integrity so he might just be really, really stupid.  I am open to that possibility.

by ProfRich on 07/25/2008 03:18:19 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Missing the point, it seems... (none / 0)

Maybe I was too obtuse...

My main point wasn't the mistake. Everyone makes mistakes.

I was trying to point out that it's an old, fat, long-haired recluse in a living room in Oregon who noticed it. Not MSNBC. Not FOX. No watchdog group. No intrepid blogger. Nada. Nuttin'.

HOW can this be? I know damn well I'm not specially gifted, so how could it escape everyone's scrutiny? It's not a conspiracy question, it's more of a "Are they completely oblivious to what is in front of them in their effort to get their talking point in?" question.

by MedfordTim on 07/25/2008 02:09:56 PM EST

i don't think it was an error (none / 0)
It probably wasn't an either/or question.  Some people may have said both identify with their values.  This is why I say polling is worthless--people have no clue what their own values are or whether politician XYZ really represents them.  The only poll that matters is the one that happens in November.

by schmoab on 07/25/2008 02:47:45 PM EST

[ Parent ]
great example (none / 0)
This is why discussing numbers with liberals is difficult. Only one guy understood the poll.

by KenTX on 07/25/2008 02:56:13 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Update the Ken file (none / 0)
Go ahead and add scientific polling to the list of things Ken know nothing about but comments on nonetheless.

by ProfRich on 07/25/2008 03:09:42 PM EST

[ Parent ]
math impaired communications major (none / 0)
Wrap your brain around this difficult concept. 1. Does Barack Obama identify with your values? 2. Does John McCain identify with your values?

by KenTX on 07/25/2008 03:19:29 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I am sorry Ken (none / 0)

You are correct.  We were misreading the question as "Who identifies more with your values?"

Dammit!!!

by ProfRich on 07/25/2008 03:21:56 PM EST

[ Parent ]
ohmagosh! (none / 0)
Did you just concede something? You didn't have to do it publicly, you could have sent a PM. OK. My turn. Obama will win. But you didn't need to hear it from me.

by KenTX on 07/25/2008 05:02:04 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Choices (none / 0)

When you realize you are on the wrong side of an argument (although I just said Schmoabs interpretation was wrong which if I read it right is true) you have two choices, keep being wrong or start being right.

On this note Ken, I am going to post some theories on the polling data so far later tonight.

Would really like an honest reaction.

by ProfRich on 07/25/2008 06:21:38 PM EST

[ Parent ]
No (none / 0)

If so the polling service needs to be shut down.

If both was an option the data has to be presented that way.

by ProfRich on 07/25/2008 03:07:58 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Doesn't answer 'margin of error' (none / 0)

This is the only follow up I'll do on this - the horse died a couple of days ago, after all...

If it WASN'T an "either/or" question, there would be no need for a 'margin of error'. It would simply state number of 'yes' and 'no' answers.

Plus, it would still beg the question of why no one announcing the numbers explained the discrepancy.

by MedfordTim on 07/25/2008 09:03:13 PM EST

[ Parent ]
give it up Tim (none / 0)
All polls have a margin of error, based upon sampling.
 
The "margin of error" reflects the prediction that a polling sample is representative of the population at large.

This issue is settled. Move on.

by KenTX on 07/26/2008 02:50:01 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Two all beef patties (none / 0)
Twba, keep in mind that you were the one who rushed to respond to my initial post without reading it all the way through or you would have noticed my caveat.

I waited and waited. My first comment was the 36th on the thread.

I have two beefs with you, Tim. First, despite having plenty of time on your hands, you did not bother to download and read the poll before posting. Secondly, you demonstrated innumeracy.

If it WASN'T an "either/or" question, there would be no need for a 'margin of error'. It would simply state number of 'yes' and 'no' answers.

If it wasn't an either/or question, there would still be a margin of error. That's basic mathematics.

by Twba on 08/11/2008 12:20:40 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Obviously it was 2 different questions... (none / 0)

Obviously it was 2 different questions not an either/or question.  Some people answered that both Obama and McCain identifies with their values. 

This reminds me of a West Wing episode I saw again recently.  Josh Lyman loses a vote on a foreign aid bill because a poll comes out saying that 68% of Americans think foreign aid is too high and 59% think it should be cut.

Josh repeats that stat throughout the episode, and when finally asked why he says,

"Because 9% think its too high, but shouldn't be cut.   Nine percent of respondents could not fully get their arms around the question.  There should be another box you can check for 'I have utterly no idea what you're talking about.  Please, God, don't ask for my input'."

by publius on 07/25/2008 03:32:42 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Wait a second. (none / 0)
Isn't it possible that some people said both Obama and McCain represented their values?

How is this possible?

Because they could have said that Obama represented some, and McCain represented others.

I don't think this was a mistake, and it makes sense to me.

by jarett on 07/25/2008 04:15:11 PM EST

Oh, this is funny! (none / 0)

Raw Story noticed my post. They added it to their "blogs/media" links.

But they attributed it to Cenk!

raw story 

by MedfordTim on 07/25/2008 09:23:55 PM EST

2 independant questions (none / 0)

during a poll of many questions 2 separate questions are asked:

1. Does Obama represent your values?

2.  Does Mccain represent your values?

A few idiots said both did, big whoop.

 

Of course, what should also be mentioned is that I see 3 separate questions in your post, MedfordTim -

1. "Who better represents your values?" - which implies one answer

2. "Identifies with your values" - which implies both could have been yes

3. "Identify with background and values" - which adds another variable, background

Maybe if we got to the actual question it would give a clear answer.

 

Don't talk about religion or politics, my ass!

by TheRob91 on 07/26/2008 06:03:59 AM EST

Can't ANYONE research? (none / 0)
For each of the following candidates, please tell me whether that person has a background and set of values that you can identify with, or whether he does NOT have a background and set of values that you can identify with.

Come on, Tim. It took me about two minutes to locate and download the poll and read the question.

by Twba on 07/26/2008 10:28:24 AM EST

Then you can answer (none / 0)
Okay, Mr. Smartypants, then take a guess why there is a margin of error.

by MedfordTim on 07/26/2008 10:48:41 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Yes, I can (none / 0)
I don't have to guess, Tim. I know why there is a margin of error.

by Twba on 07/26/2008 11:40:20 AM EST

[ Parent ]
margin of error (none / 0)
Tim, I begging you to stop.

Every poll has a sample. Large polls might include a sample with 1000 or more participants.

Pollsters must decide which respondants to include in the sample, and which people to exclude.

For example, when Zogby or Rasmussen conduct a presidential tracking poll, they want to include likely voters in the sample. Furthermore, they want to make sure the sample is representative of the total population, so they will probably try to make sure that 52% of the sample voted for Bush in 2004, and 48% of the sample voted for Kerry. (Unless the poll is taken by CBS or Newsweek. They will include anyone who answers the phone.)

The "margin of error" reflects the odds that the pollster got it right when he selected his sample.

by KenTX on 07/26/2008 12:35:10 PM EST

[ Parent ]
NO! I CAN'T stop! (none / 0)

La la la la la la la ...driving the cons crazy playing their own game

la de da de da de doe....

I still think it would have been professional for an explanation by the hosts.

But I thank all the Conservatives who came to the defense of Olbermann, Gregory, and the rest. Does my heart good to see the support for MSNBC.

by MedfordTim on 07/26/2008 12:43:25 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Statistics (none / 0)
For each of the following candidates, please tell me whether that person has a background and set of values that you can identify with, or whether he does NOT have a background and set of values that you can identify with.

58 percent said John McCain has a background and set of values that I identify with, 34 percent said he does not and 8 percent were not sure.

47 percent said Barack Obama has a background and set of values that I identify with, 43 percent said he does not and 10 percent were not sure.

The numbers add up to 100 percent.

by Twba on 07/28/2008 12:43:35 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Wait a second! (none / 0)

Are y'all using Base 10 numbers?  Ooooooh, yeah they add up then.

(Run with it Tim, you won't get a better chance)

by ProfRich on 07/28/2008 01:08:00 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Stats (none / 0)
Are y'all using Base 10 numbers?  Ooooooh, yeah they add up then.

58 percent said John McCain has a background and set of values that I identify with, 34 percent said he does not and 8 percent were not sure.

58+34+8=100

47 percent said Barack Obama has a background and set of values that I identify with, 43 percent said he does not and 10 percent were not sure.

47+43+10=100

by Twba on 07/28/2008 01:56:08 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Dude, you totally missed my quasi-nerdy math joke. (none / 0)

by ProfRich on 07/28/2008 02:07:34 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Maths (none / 0)
There are 10 types of people in this world: those who understand binary numbers and those who don't.

by Twba on 07/28/2008 02:55:17 PM EST

[ Parent ]
That was funny (none / 0)

by ProfRich on 07/28/2008 03:11:04 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Indeed, very funny. (none / 0)

by Spencer on 07/28/2008 03:51:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Yeah, funny (none / 0)
It was funny that TWBA ignored my reluctant acquiescence to his point and retreated to "I still think it would have been professional for an explanation by the hosts" too...

by MedfordTim on 07/29/2008 10:23:21 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Oh, yeah... (none / 0)
That old thing.  I was totally Fox News'd.  Sorry Tim.

by Spencer on 07/29/2008 11:07:11 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Funny (none / 0)
"I still think it would have been professional for an explanation by the hosts"

All the polls continue to show Obama ahead, but you can see he's come down a bit. And you got a couple of areas here where McCain continues to enjoy a big advantage.

This was - "The Wall Street Journal" poll was taken after the trip that he made to Iraq, and on commander in chief - well, first, background and values - 47 percent say Obama shares their background and values; 58 percent say that about McCain. It doesn't add up to 100 because people can say both of them do.

And then on the question of commander in chief, look at this - 53-25 McCain.

You've been watching the wrong channel, Tim.

by Twba on 07/30/2008 06:04:39 AM EST

[ Parent ]
No, I didn't. (none / 0)
I was watching the right channel (or, in my case, visiting the correct website) - they didn't do their job. If a Fox robot said that, good for them. The score for Fox is now: 1 "attaboy", 10,000,000 "Aw shit"s.

Shame on MSNBC.

by MedfordTim on 07/30/2008 02:28:29 PM EST

[ Parent ]
But you should have (none / 0)
I was watching the right channel (or, in my case, visiting the correct website) - they didn't do their job.

I don't have cable at my house. My only experience with MSNBC is at work where we have it continuously on a TV in a holding pen for salesweasels. I've never been impressed with the channel. I never watch FNC but it can't be worse than MSNBC.

If a Fox robot said that, good for them.

Actually, it was a former ABC News heavyweight who transfered to Fox News.

Shame on MSNBC.

No. Shame on MedfordTim for wasting his time watching that crap. You can learn far more in a much shorter span of time by reading.

Why didn't you just download the poll like I did? You would have known why the numbers on screen totaled more than one hundred. You created a blog post without knowing what you're talking about, although that doesn't stop too many other people on this website. But do you really want to be just like every dumbass here?

by Twba on 08/03/2008 11:44:23 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Good (none / 0)

you do understand. Do me a favor. Next time your biggest fan Ken runs his mouth about the Y2K problem, please PM him and tell him that he is making a fool of himself again. He will believe you.

Also, let him know that no one is impressed just because he knows a few big words like thermodynamics.

Thanks, I owe you one. 

by z1p101 on 08/11/2008 01:23:15 PM EST

[ Parent ]
cenk mentioned this? (none / 0)

I just found it funny that he mentioned this on the show even though its a stupid post.

I guess the fact that this story is popular shows how little people think.

Don't talk about religion or politics, my ass!

by TheRob91 on 07/29/2008 06:23:04 AM EST

Stupid? (none / 0)

<insert generic insult here>

 

by MedfordTim on 07/29/2008 10:20:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
<generic insult> ?! (none / 0)
<retort>

Don't talk about religion or politics, my ass!

by TheRob91 on 08/02/2008 01:39:08 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Can't ANYONE add? Doesn't ANYONE notice? | 57 comments (57 topical, 0 hidden)
 Display: