Prof Rich's guide to what to look for in next weeks polling

Email Print posted by ProfRich 07/26/2008 01:21:53 AM EST

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For those who watch the polls here is my take on what to look for next.

I am seeing two main models for interpreting the 2008 election.  Both begin with the understanding that there is a disconnect between the internal numbers (party ID, issue by issue candidate preference byissue, philosophical outlook and others) and head to head polling.

If you haven't been following, Obama is killing McCain in everything but head to head polling. To explain this there seems to be two schools of thought.

Model #1: The Reagan Model

The story that is told of the 1980 election is that everyone knew they didn't want Carter back but they were nervous about electing an actor many believed to be a radical who happened to be the oldest major party nominee ever. (A record broken by McCain.)

Reagan trailed most of the election and moved into a tie down the stretch.  After a successful debate (the only debate of the campaign), people decided they were comfortable with what had been perceived as questionable aspects of Reagan.  Reagan went on to landslide Carter.

IF THIS MODEL IS APPLICABLE: I would expect to see the trip to Eurasia give Obama somewhat of a boost at the polls as people feel he has at least met the minimum threshold of diplomacy.

Model #2: The Racist Model

This model (often accepted by conservatives) says that voters may want Obama's policies and not want McCain but enough people will never vote for Obama for some mysterious reason (did you know he's black?) that no matter what he does he can't move up much.

IF THIS IS MODEL IS APPLICABLE: There should be a pretty hard and fast number Obama can't get above.  Of Course if this number is about 49%+ it shouldn't matter.  A lack of significant bounce over the next week gives this model some credence.  Although it might mean people just aren't paying much attention right now.

The latest information:

Tuesday, Rasmussen Reports had the candidates tied.

Today, Obama leads by 5.

Obama's high is 7 (June 8th, after winning the nomination).

Gallup had Obama by 3 on Tuesday.

Today, Obama leads by 6.

His high is 7 (June 9th, after winning the nomination).

As for Obama's cieling?  Both polls have him one point under his all time high.  Gallup 47%, Rasmussen 50%.

If Obama can push his lead past his highs and approach double digits and maintian 50% or higher over the next week or so I think we have to start asking ourselves if McCain isn't another Dole, Dukakis or Mondale.  Some guy wandering around America, making comedians lives easy and waiting to give a concession speech.

Now please realize, I am not PREDICTING anything.  I honestly couldn't say which will happen.  Perhaps something different will happen and neither of these models will be applicable.  Anyone else have a different interpretation of the numbers?

 

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Prof Rich's guide to what to look for in next weeks polling | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden)
the simplest explanation (none / 0)
for no change would be no one's paying attention. I don't see the connection between racism and that (hypothetical) statistic. Could you unpack that for me?

by hazmat on 07/26/2008 02:05:13 AM EST

Great point, haz. (none / 0)

I actually fell asleep halfway through typing that post (I work three jobs) and forgot to add that people may just not be paying attention.  Thanks for the assist.

As for the racism thing.  I think analysts are just trying to explain the gap between people favoring Dems, having a more favborable view of Obama and just about every one of his policy stances, seeing him as better for just about everything but Obama only having a 3 point lead or so (until yesterday, which may be a statistical aberration).

Some are suggesting that a lot of voters who might vote for, say, Edwards or Biden under the same circumstances are unwilling to vote for Obama.  This is similar to the Reagan model with one key difference.  Obama can establish his foriegn policy or economic credibility (like he did on his trip) but he can't really establish that he's not black.

So it is essentially a drag on his poll numbers that he can't do much about, unlike other potential drags.

Let me be clear, I do NOT believe this is the case.  I believe we are dealing with the Reagan model.  But I wanted to present what I hear conservatives saying.

by ProfRich on 07/26/2008 08:46:09 AM EST

[ Parent ]
you made the point (none / 0)

I just wanted more explanation on racism. I think the idea you expressed was that this (no change in polling) would be evidence for a ceiling. Mind you, there was strong evidence for such a ceiling in Hillary Clinton's case due to her high negatives, so it also seems equally likely that the republican smear campaign can turn Obama into another Hillary. There could be a racist component to that of course but I don't think that would be the overriding factor.

Its a really interesting post rich, curious to see what happens. I'm going to predict that the trip has no significant impact on opinion polls. My explanation, as an alternative is that by and large the trip did nothing to change voters' views on the race. Obama didn't make any mistakes (cons are fuming because they were hoping for a big gaffe or two) and looked very presidential. That will a very positive impact down the stretch.

by hazmat on 07/26/2008 11:39:19 AM EST

[ Parent ]
race (none / 0)
this is the biggist thing he has to over come , to me he is not black nor white , he is just a person running to be pres:. now the racist bastard's are the bad in the usa , and the sooner they die off the better we will become.but you are right, it will put a cieling on his #s , i do think he can over come the #s when it counts in november. POLLS JUST DON't mean anything to me , and are always untruthfull.  his trip done some good for his camp , and the more the repugs put it down the better it will be for obama

by tuna on 07/27/2008 08:59:41 AM EST

race is definitely the hump (none / 0)
he has to overcome.  If Obama and McCain's policies are compared to most polls of what Americans want, Obama's policies line up with about %75, however there is about %25 of those people who still feel Obama is the "riskier" pick.  I have noticed through all these polls that people are answering honestly, and it tells me that they are racist and don't know it.  When someone says they agree with Obama on his stances, and then say they think John McCain will be a better president, that is bias talking, and it is racial bias.  Undoubtedly Obama wouldn't be here without white voters, as %12 of the population won't win you anything.  However the appalachianesque voters who are racist, and don't bother to educate themselves on the issues will be the demographic that barack CAN'T reach.  He shouldn't even try.  These people have their minds made up, and they will never vote for a black man, even if he has their best interests at heart.  As a black man, this does not dishearten me, as I feel that many White people have showed an overwhelming support for Obama.  However, I feel that the media is afraid to admit that SOME whites are racist.  LOTS of blacks are racist.  I have no problem admitting it.  The reasons for their racism run back to before the civil rights movement, and although it is unfair, i think white people aren't really accepting black's rationale for racism, and that's not really fair.  Try being a second class citizen, and being raised a second class citizen, and then affirmative action comes along, and you're supposed to forget all the racism that you have suffered through and still endure...it's not that easy, but i think blacks are also stagnating their own encounters with diversity as well.  I am not one to blame racism on one race.  That being said, I do think race is Obama's biggest obstacle, simply because of the fact that some white poeple agree with his policies over McCain, but will still not vote for Obama, because he is "exotic" or "foreign" as Andrea Mitchell likes to put it.  What I don't get is after all these years, Blacks are still not seen as Americans, but "African" americans.  I know it is a self-imposed moniker, but in light of millions of white Americans telling you that you are not %100 American, "African" american is the next best thing.  I think lots of whites see Obama as bringing us all together under the term "American" and some whites are resisting this unity.  This election will truly bring racial tension to a head, but I think Obama's superior diplomacy skills will allow blacks and whites to finally see each other's side, and not be judgemental.  Obama really is that great of a politician...just give it time!
Chris

by chrisandyasemin on 07/27/2008 12:23:02 PM EST

That's true (none / 0)
but on a happier note, I know at least one open racist who voted for Obama in the primaries and intends to vote for him in Novemeber.  (And not because he thinks it will help "the movement", if you know what I am saying.)

Palin in 2012? Bitch, please! No, really, please run in 2012, bitch. ;)

by richardshort2001 on 07/27/2008 02:35:43 PM EST

[ Parent ]
disagree (none / 0)

with this point

 When someone says they agree with Obama on his stances, and then say they think John McCain will be a better president, that is bias talking, and it is racial bias.

If memory serves Democrats faced the same poll mismatch in '04, with Kerry running, who was white. I'm not saying that there is no racial bias, but I just don't see the evidence that it accounts for the polling data you're describing. I'm open minded though.

by hazmat on 07/27/2008 03:48:52 PM EST

[ Parent ]
So let me get this straight, Professor... (none / 0)
So if one votes for Obama, they are obviously not a racist is any way and that is that. But if one does not vote for Obama, then they must be a racist, because simply saying that they disagree with his policies or lack of experience or the fact that he is evolving into a known flip flopping liar obviously means that they (the voter) must be racist or Republican (Not much difference in your view, I'm sure)... I'm glad you brought this subject up, Professor - it seems to shed a light on how you think of the American Voter! BTW, it is model 2, but not for the reasons you state - when it comes down to it in November a lot of people are gonna think twice before electing a black man to the highest office in the land. It doesn't make them Klansmen, it makes them normal...

by bobo1 on 07/27/2008 04:16:51 PM EST

bobo (none / 0)
Obama might be elected in 2008, but if it happens, he will be repudiated in 2012, by a more profound blowout than Jimmy Carter experienced. The reason is that voters will have a chance to consider the impact of true liberalism. The Democrat Party will become known as "The Party Of Obama", just like the Nazi Party became known as "The Party of Hitler". It was really hard for Nazis to stage a comeback after that.

by KenTX on 07/27/2008 04:26:33 PM EST

[ Parent ]
KenTX, (none / 0)


SUCK MY DICK!

ha ha

by BENS MISSING GOATEE on 07/27/2008 04:56:06 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Could be better (none / 0)

This insane rant would be sooo much better if I couldn't do this with it and make a better point than you did:

Bush was be elected in 2004, because it happened, his policies were be repudiated in 2008, by a more profound blowout than Jimmy Carter experienced. The reason is that voters will have a chance to consider the impact of true conservatism. The Republican Party will become known as "The Party Of Bush", just like the Nazi Party became known as "The Party of Hitler". It was really hard for Nazis to stage a comeback after that.

by ProfRich on 07/27/2008 10:27:32 PM EST

[ Parent ]
did you not read... (none / 0)
i said that the people who AGREE with Obama's Policies still answer that they "feel" John McCain will be a "better" President.  It is because the questions are framed like,"If you close your eyes, in a crisis, who do you see in the oval office?"  That is a loaded question, because all we have seen in the past years is a republican in office in crisis, so the natural reaction is "crisis = republican president".  Then when those same people answer that they agree with most of the policies Obama has said about the Iraq war, the economy, and oil drilling, one glaring answer to this would be that they are "racist" and may not know it.  Racist doesn't mean hateful, so don't mix those two things up.  They have a xenophobia, and McCain is more like them.  They answered the questions honestly, and it shows that they don't trust Obama, but they cannot come up with a concrete reason.  They also haven't really been openly asked,"is it because he's black".  I would be fine with it if people just came out and said it, but there has been a lot of cheek turning to this 800 pound gorilla known as racism that has been hanging out in this election cycle.  Like I said before, MOST white people are NOT racist.  There are probably more racist blacks than whites per capita in urban settings, so I am not trying to demonize whites by any means.  All i am saying is that the polls are dancing around this issue and trying to pretend it doesn't exist, and then on top of that you have fix news that spins racist propaganda to make Obama seem like an inexperienced black panther islamofaschist elitist who has a radical black movement pastor...let's not get into how muslims have been demonized because Obama is accused of being a Muz, and somehow that makes him more untrustworthy if he is a Muz.  There is racism/xenophobia going not only against blacks, but general Muslim culture as well.  It's really exposing the true colors of the lower end of America's Bell curve.
Chris

VIVA KENTX!!

by chrisandyasemin on 07/27/2008 05:54:19 PM EST

[ Parent ]
And let me acknowledge... (none / 0)
Professor Rich's point about the bounce has proven true, so his Reagan Model may have a lot more weight on this election than race, which I would love.  I live in rural Indiana...I know racism still exists, however, I HOPE that it won't affect this election as much as real issues, but I am still skeptical.

by chrisandyasemin on 07/27/2008 05:56:55 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Are you retarded? (none / 0)

No seriously.  What the hell are you talking about?

Doesn't God frown on you getting shithoused on a Sunday?

What I said was there are a lot of people who are answering like this?

Who do you like more? Obama

Who do you agree with on the issues? Obama

Who do you trust? Obama

Who would handle (insert anything) better? Obama

Who will you vote for? McCain

Those are the people I am wondering about.  If you just agree with McCain, if you are willing to let contractors rape American girls to ensure your tax cut like Ken, that doesn't make you a racist.  Makes you a piece of shit, but not necessarily a rapist.

by ProfRich on 07/27/2008 10:24:43 PM EST

[ Parent ]
more proof... (none / 0)
that this demographic just doesn't care to read...
VIVA KENTX!!

by chrisandyasemin on 07/28/2008 09:38:59 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Polling Update: Split Decision (none / 0)

Since I began this thread on Thursday here is what has happened.

Gallup has Obama up to a 9 point lead, 49-40.

This marks Obamas largest lead by two as well as highest percentage by two.

This is also McCain's low.  He had been at 41 on June 9 and July 20.  Lets see if Obama can hit 50 and McCain can drop into the 30s.

The question now is, is this a bounce or a new line of scrimmage.

Rasmussen is singing a different song.

After moving from 5 to 6, Obama;s lead is down to 3 points today, 48-45.  Curiously, Obama is only two points below his all time high of 50, but McCain is three points over his low of 42 (June 22).

The key thing I am interested in here is that Obama has stayed at 48-49 since the trip began while McCain has fluctuated somewhat.  If 48-49 is Obama's new baseline, McCain is in trouble.  If it represents a temporary bounce, we will have to wait until the dust settles.

There has been no other new polling except a Research 2000 poll that I give no weight to (100 respondents).  It has it at 51-39 Obama.

IN POST UPDATE:

Checked Gallup after I wrote this.  Obama ticked down to 48-40.  Don't know that this significantly impacts anything yet.  It seems clear that 48% or so of voters support Obama.  McCain support is a little harder to peg down.

 

by ProfRich on 07/28/2008 01:15:43 PM EST

Poll vaulting (none / 0)
This question was asked in a new NBC/WSJ poll:

Who do you think would be better when it comes to being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency -- Barack Obama or John McCain, or do you think that both would be equally good or neither would be good?

19 percent of respondents said Obama would be better. 53 percent said McCain would be better. 19 percent said both would be equally good. 7 percent said neither would be good. And 2 percent aren't sure.

It's not racism that is holding Obama back, it's his inexperience. A whirlwind tour of the world may not be enough to change the minds of those who think Obama is too inexperienced to be president.

by Twba on 07/28/2008 05:44:55 PM EST

Prof Rich's guide to what to look for in next weeks polling | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 hidden)
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