Obama is not falling in the polls

Email Print posted by publius 08/02/2008 12:49:20 AM EST

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With every new poll that comes out there is a decency tendency to compare it with the last one and make broad conclusions about who's current strategy is working.

Cenk mentioned a couple of times on today's show (8/1/08) that Obama has lost ground in OH, PA, and FL  The best I can tell, this comes from the recent results of the Quinnipaic poll which showed that Obama has lost ground in each of those states from their last poll which was taken over a month ago.

We should not look at individual polls to determine a trend.  There is always going to be sampling error (3-4% in national polls and 4-5% in state polls).  Sampling errors in these polls are usually larger than the change in a candidate's support we see from poll to poll, so there is no way to conclude--from a single poll--whether their true support is going up or down. 

A much better method for tracking trends is to average the results from many polls over time.  This will wash out some of the sampling error and pollster bias if it exists.  FiveThirtyEight and Pollster are two very good sites that do just that. 

Now, I completely agree with his analysis of how Obama needs to make the debate about McCain and not play defense all of the time.  I also agree that this race should be a blow out and most of the evidence so far says that it is a close race.

But let's get real about how this race is shaping up.  There is no clear evidence that Obama is losing ground.

National Numbers:  Before his foreign tour, when the media theme was Obama's flip-flopping, his numbers were slipping.  Since his foreign visits Obama's numbers have stopped their decline and have begun trendnig upwards.

fivethirtyeight 

State Numbers:  The following charts show how Obama's numbers have been trending in OH, FL, and PA.

OH

 

FL

 

 PA

 

 

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Obama is not falling in the polls | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)
You can break out all the charts and graphs ... (1.00 / 2)
And useless numbers you want - the overall feel of the country is shifting and its not positive for Obama... You are right to say this should be a blowout...McCain is the WORST candidate ever - but that's not what is controlling the story... This election is going to be an up or down vote on Obama - Does he deserve it or not? - And that's what the American people will decide - so thank you for your polling and research, but really right now it means DICK!!! America is getting a clearer picture of Obama - Uh Oh... BTW - I'm gonna keep asking this until someone answers - Where is Michelle Obama? She's harder to see nowadays than Waldo!!! :)

by bobo1 on 08/02/2008 01:19:18 AM EST

Maybe she's off with Cindy McCain (none / 0)
Popping pills lifted from charities and cruising nursing homes for old men in her private jet.

by ProfRich on 08/02/2008 08:03:22 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Come on, that is an unfair comparison (none / 0)

Of course Cindy is hiding from the media and popping drugs, I mean did you see that cookie recipe story?  Clearly the media has an anti-McCain bias.

 The only things the media has done to Michelle are questioned her patriotism, pushed the idea that she is a black revolutionary, called her a Baby Momma, and implied she is a terrorist.

 I really wish the media would stop its clear pro-Obama Bias

Palin in 2012? Bitch, please! No, really, please run in 2012, bitch. ;)

by richardshort2001 on 08/02/2008 12:47:37 PM EST

[ Parent ]
feelings (none / 0)
So, how should we quantify this "overall feel" and whose feelings should we include in this metric?

by desertpear on 08/02/2008 02:41:45 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Thats the rub, pear... (none / 0)
There is no scientific way to quantify "feelings" - but one who talks to people beyond the blogosphere understands that these approval polls don't mean shit when it comes time to pull that lever - the picture of Obama is getting worse with each passing day... It really falls back to common sense and general intuition in my opinion!

by bobo1 on 08/02/2008 03:44:50 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Obama is the front runner! (none / 0)
McCain is the underdog.

That's the same narrative McCain uses in every race. He wouldn't know how to campign otherwise.

All we have to do is keep it close. Keep it close. And then...

by KenTX on 08/02/2008 03:58:54 PM EST

[ Parent ]
hmmm (none / 0)

I'm feeling differently than you two boys...  ;)

 

by desertpear on 08/03/2008 12:36:15 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Yep, and then... (none / 0)
Obama's army of volunteers in every state will show that lots of "ordinary" people working together can accomplish pretty amazing things.  McCain better start organizing some ground troops.  Right now all he has is that chirping-cricket sound-effect, which doesn't help much on election day.

by jjpotter on 08/03/2008 11:56:31 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Excellent post, Publius. (none / 0)

I thought I was the only one that knew how flawed it was to only consider one poll or one pollster. Why the media focuses on any single poll or only the most recent poll is beyond me. The entire approach is juvenile, something one would find in a high school setting. Cable news organizations are the most guilty of all in following this practice. I have much more respect for news organizations that do not jump on any new poll that comes along.

That being said, I do think Obama is running an excellent campaign. The Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Moses and "race card" accusations from McCain will fade away as most people know that Obama wants to avoid all of this and win the Presidency on the issues. He'll be fine come November.

I have to disagree with you, however, in your belief  that  this race "should be a blowout."

WE VOTED FOR AND ELECTED GEORGE BUSH NOT ONCE, BUT TWICE!!! 

Yes, you can argue that the Supreme Court placed Bush in the White House in 2000. However, Bush still won about half the votes cast that year. In 2004, he won the election by a greater, much more convincing margin.

It gives me no pleasure to say this: Our track record when it comes to electing presidents (recently) is, perhaps, the very worst in the Western world. We are the only population (I can think of) that would have allowed Bush to gain power TWICE.

Incredibly, there are those that still think the Bush presidency would have been "ok" if we had just conducted the war in Iraq a little better than we did. 25% of us still think America is on the right track.

With the kind of voting pattern we've exhibited this decade, there is no way anyone can expect Obama to crush McCain. If anything, Obama has a lot of work to do educating much of the electorate!

 

 

 

by SaveAmerica08 on 08/02/2008 02:44:59 AM EST

typo? (none / 0)
Did you mean "tendency" instead of "decency" ?

by tiggerporn on 08/02/2008 03:50:05 PM EST

Obama is not falling in the polls | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)
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