08/20/2008 09:21:14 PM EST

Why Is Hillary Ahead Of Obama In A New Poll?

posted by Tom Hanc

There is a new poll showing that Hillary is ahead of Obama in a head to head match-up with McCain.

Many people are taking this to mean that Obama HAS to pick Hillary as VP, while others (overzealous Hillary supporters and right wingers) are spinning this as proof that people are unhappy with Obama and that they wish they had Clinton instead.

So what's the truth? Well, there are a lot of factors here that you're already aware of, so I'm going to focus on another possibility you may not be...

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If you ask me, this is a clear cut case of the backup quarterback being the most popular player in town.

Hillary has been on the bench for some time now (as far as news cycles go), carrying a clip-board and smiling on the sidelines.

Meanwhile Obama has been out on the field getting first downs but also (like any starting QB) taking sacks, fumbling and throwing interceptions. Or if you prefer, sometimes it seems like the Obama campaign calls a run play or 5 yard out on 3rd and 10.

As someone who's lived in Chicago-land his whole life, I can tell you that sometimes there is no player more popular than the back-up quarterback. Sure, he's not throwing any touchdowns, but he's also not screwing up plays and losing games.

That means that any mistakes or let-downs from the starting QB bury the mistakes and let-downs of the back-up. People start to only remember the good, the upside. They project what they'd like to see out of the starter onto the back-up, even if that projection is a gross over-estimation.

Don't get me wrong, I realize that Hillary has some positive qualities and that there could be some big political upside if Obama selects her to be his VP. But I also recognize that three are some significant downsides, and I hope he goes in another direction.

And I really hope the media calls this situation what it is.

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Why Is Hillary Ahead Of Obama In A New Poll? | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 hidden)
Well Hell Tom... (none / 0)
McCain is ahead of Obama in today's Zogby poll, so why shouldn't Hillary be? The good ship Obama is taking on water - and I don't think that Joe Biden or Evan Blah for VP is gonna fix that!!! :)

by bobo1 on 08/20/2008 09:52:17 PM EST

Be honest (none / 0)
Did you even read the post or did you just read the first sentence and or title?

by Tom Hanc on 08/20/2008 09:57:23 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Yes I read the post... (none / 0)
As always, Tom, you are very keen and insightful in making your points - I just don't quite understand why you guys continue to bitch and moan about the media and their treatment of this election in general - Did you think that Obama was just gonna cakewalk this one? If you did, you are not as smart as I give you credit for... And besides - Rex Grossman is your #2 now - that's something to cheer about! :)

by bobo1 on 08/20/2008 10:02:36 PM EST

[ Parent ]
No (none / 0)
I absolutely did NOT think this would be a cakewalk for Obama. I mean, it *should* be because of how brutal the Republicans have been/are, but oh well.

Grossman should be cut or traded for a pack of Big League Chew. Caleb Hanie should be the #2 and I bet he starts before the year is out.  The kid might actually be a good player (eventually).

by Tom Hanc on 08/20/2008 10:05:29 PM EST

[ Parent ]
See bobo (none / 0)
Kozlo isn't gone.  Freedom of speech is still safe.  Phew...

by Spencer on 08/21/2008 06:15:51 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Don't forget (none / 0)
you can rate comments as "unproductive" or "marginal".

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 07:36:33 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I just did (none / 0)
But it's kind of pointless when the comment will more than likely be deleted.

by Spencer on 08/21/2008 07:40:50 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Great (none / 0)
Even better.

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 08:20:43 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Hope for the weary (none / 0)
hope. that 6:1 ratio keeps coming up, doesn't it? If Obama's campaign has any brains at all their tracking this stuff. It should be easy to use these things to define your opponent, so why don't they?

by hazmat on 08/20/2008 10:17:18 PM EST

Poll data? (none / 0)
It seems like the data collection methods of the pollsters could be called into question. How do they collect thier data? Land line telephone? cell phone? email? online poll?

the data collection method used could explain systematic errors in the data.

by Taximtime on 08/20/2008 10:38:02 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I've seen that asked before (none / 0)
but I forget the answer.

Since most younger people are voting for Obama (and they use cell phones most of the time) could polls be skewed since it's harder to get cell phone info, etc.?

by Tom Hanc on 08/20/2008 10:53:01 PM EST

[ Parent ]
I've seen the cellphone thing analyzed at DailyKos (none / 0)
The verdict was that it would make a small difference, but not huge. 

by desertpear on 08/21/2008 12:50:45 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Shame on you (none / 0)
You of all people should know that "small" is not an adequate response. Being a biologist I expect you to use the phrase (not) "statistically significant".

:)

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 01:05:03 AM EST

[ Parent ]
I didn't fact check myself (none / 0)

too lazy tonight, or too busy with nonexistent creatures

by desertpear on 08/21/2008 02:29:33 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Like bigfoot? (none / 0)
.

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 08:57:52 AM EST

[ Parent ]
It called Pace (none / 0)
How many election turned in the last Month to two week of election...With the exception of 2000 & 2004 they were lost because of votes that was not counted...Obama has this down packed it called Millions of new voters. The Republicans will not know what hits them on election day.

by army193 on 08/21/2008 12:14:09 AM EST

Well (none / 0)
I really hope you're right.

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 12:31:08 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Because its like this my son... (none / 0)
average Americans, Republicans and Democrats and "Independents" are fucking political idiots.(And they don't know shit about football either.) I also think they lie like motherf'ers on polls.

Ron Paul got widely popular the more hopeless his campaign became. Why? Because deep in his supporters heart of hearts they know he had no chance to win and fuck up the country.

Now that Obama is taking a few lumps Hillary is gaining more support. And no gloating from the Rethug side either....you guys creamed your jeans over Fred "Sleepy" Thompson...he was leading the polls as a non candidate. Then when it was obvious that Fred was about as energetic as dead lice falling off a dead dog...you guys dropped  him like a bad habit.

by MRFred on 08/21/2008 12:40:23 AM EST

Yeah (none / 0)
The football references are probably lost on some people, even though they're pretty basic.

PS---Thanks Dad.

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 01:00:10 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Hold, hold... (none / 0)

Wait for Obama's convention bounce and McCain's post pro-life running mate announcement slump.

I'm not really sweating this.

by Spencer on 08/21/2008 01:33:59 AM EST

I'm not sweating it either (none / 0)
I'm just annoyed by how it's being spun in the MSM.

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 01:35:13 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Yeah (none / 0)

I had written a second part about that but I opted not to post it for whatever reason.

It just seems funny to me that this switch in dialogue happens all in one day.  All at once the media decides "Hillary MUST be his VP or he's going to LOSE!  Mua ha ha!"  It's very odd.  I think they just enjoyed Obama vs. Hillary so much that they're doing what they can to create it again.  That might be a little conspiratorial, but whatever...

by Spencer on 08/21/2008 01:56:16 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Pinch hitting for Pedro Borbon... (none / 0)
Maybe you should have used a baseball analogy.

After a few times through the lineup, Barack's stuff is no longer fooling anyone. It's time for a relief pitcher to save the game.

by Twba on 08/21/2008 09:25:11 AM EST

But football (none / 0)
is better than baseball!

(And yes, a Friday Fun Thread on sports is coming soon).

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 10:44:52 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Dave...your still getting spammed. (none / 0)
You need to check this " users" posts..straight from the McCain ad campaign and talking points.

by MRFred on 08/21/2008 07:59:21 PM EST

Amen (none / 0)
.

by Tom Hanc on 08/21/2008 08:21:03 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Why Is Hillary Ahead Of Obama In A New Poll? | 26 comments (26 topical, 0 hidden)
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