08/24/2008 06:32:45 PM EST

Obama's Convention Bounce

posted by KenTX

It’s time again for predictions.

Here’s a brief history of recent convention bounces.

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The average seems to be about ten points, so that’s what I’ll assign as the over/under for the Denver Convention.

Let’s check back a week from today and see if what this graph looks like.

bounce 

 

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Obama's Convention Bounce | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden)
10 point average? (none / 0)
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwi re/2008/08/19/watching-for- the-convention-bounce/

Modest bounces are more typical, for both the winner and the loser of the general election in November. Gallup says an average bounce in its poll is between five and seven percentage points.

Man.  I go away for a few years and you guys let Kenny Boy run roughshod over you.

by DenverAdam on 08/25/2008 04:04:17 AM EST

My take (none / 0)

An average bounce appears to be 5-6%. You can't really count the '92 Clinton record bounce as it coincided with Perot (temporarily) dropping out of the race.

Since there's hardly a break between the Dem and GOP conventions this year, I don't think either candidate will get much of a bounce. Also, it looks like that in more recent years, there are fewer undecideds than in the 90s and 80s. So swings tend to be less pronounced.

Anyway, I'm not interested in this expectations game the McCain campaign and Ken seem to be interested in.

by charlesf on 08/25/2008 08:15:52 AM EST

[ Parent ]
DA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (none / 0)

 

Good Grief, it takes a convention in your backyard to get a visit out of you?

Say hello to the missus and kids!

by MedfordTim on 08/25/2008 09:13:49 AM EST

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THE MAN IS BACK!!!! (none / 0)
OK. I'll admit it. I've been lying to you guys for two years, and Adam is back to set me straight.

Adam is old school, complete with Johnny Unitas high tops, and no face mask.

I hope he will make an appearance on TYT when they're in Denver.

CNN reports the race is tied. That means we'll be able to easily measure Barack's bounce. Anything less than 10 points is a miserable failure, and I will spin it as such.

by KenTX on 08/25/2008 12:12:44 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Good to have you back, DA (none / 0)
And Ken has not run roughshod over us.  We've just learned to ignore him better.  But, like herpes, he doesn't seem to go away.

Welcome back, brother.

by TJD on 08/25/2008 01:20:15 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Obama's Convention Bounce | 5 comments (5 topical, 0 hidden)
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