Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45

Email Print posted by publius 09/07/2008 02:21:26 PM EST

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The Gallup Tracking Poll today (9/7/08) puts McCain ahead of Obama by 3 percent.  Do not freak out when you see this. 

This tracking poll includes surveys from Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.  These 3 days will show the full effect of McCain's convention bounce.  Not only was Saturday probably a good polling day for McCain, but Obama was shown to be leading early last week so it's likely that some artifically good numbers for Obama just got cycled out of the rolling average.  At the same time last week after Obama's convention the same poll showed Obama up by 8 points. 

The thing about a bounce is that is it tends to disappear over time.  There is no reason to believe this won't, and if 3 points is the biggest lead McCain can pull over Obama after his convention then he is probably going to be in a lot of trouble.  So let's just wait a week or so and see where we stand after that.

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Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden)
Maybe , Maybe Not (none / 0)

Check this out from The Democratic Underground / Crisis Papers.  Partridge wrote about this a while back. Check it out. If the fix is in  bounces won't matter.

PEACE 

by psyche2 on 09/07/2008 02:39:45 PM EST

hopefully (none / 0)
people won't give up 60 days before the election because of what oligarchs want.  If we want democracy to work, then we CAN'T let Eisenhower's prediction come true, and the people cannot be complacent and let this happen.  I don't know how much faith I have in Americans anymore, but hopefully there are enough enlightened people out there to not let this military industrial complex continue...we shall see though.
Chris

by chrisandyasemin on 09/07/2008 03:01:51 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Chris (none / 0)

I am not giving up.  I am my own Obama volunteer spreading the word.  I am willing to go to the mat to contribute to cleaning up this fucking mess created over the past .... actually 14 yrs if you count the Newt revolution. Minus the nearly 2 yrs Dems have had control of the congress.  BTW, one bright note... Its a fact the rethuglicans are going to lose alot more seats in congress. Just hope its not all Bluedogs.

Regarding your Hockey Mom post. You sorta remind me of me except that I didn't play Hockey. Played football.  I am small but maxed 350 on the bench in my prime.  5'8 200 lb. Lifted weights for nearly 30 years religiously both power lifting and bodybuilding.  Now the arthritis and joints ache but I still have some size.  Like you, I never juiced either.

PEACE 

by psyche2 on 09/07/2008 05:10:00 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Yeah, a couple people juiced (none / 0)
But, for the most part Indiana is pretty clean.  The juicers stand out a lot, so I think it discouraged people from doing it.  I'm pretty sure 350 for 200 lbs. is Olympic class lifting, if not close so you were definitely doing something worth noting.  I wanted to go past 270, but my tendons and joints are telling me not to.  I stopped squatting altogether, but in my hayday i could put up around 375/400.  The leg press was pushing 550, but it just tears the knees apart.  I'm 5'8 too, so it is just about the same frame.

Chris

by chrisandyasemin on 09/07/2008 05:25:59 PM EST

[ Parent ]
My Partners (none / 0)
Were benching 400, 450.  They were bigger than me tho. I forget what they maxed, but it was heavy.  I was amazed. Course they juiced.  Naw, never approached olympic level. Only maxed that a couple of times. Would do sets of 8 with 225 while these guys would have to take off plates and put them back on for them.  Brings back good memories. I would hit it in the morning and at nite.  Did that for couple of years.  Never competed. Some of my buds did tho. Both in lifting and bodybuilding.  I never had the guts to compete professionally. 

by psyche2 on 09/07/2008 05:42:45 PM EST

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I know a couple people that competed... (none / 0)
and they both juiced.  It seems like most body builders that compete have to juice at some point.  it's sad that people want to make the playing field uneven with roids.  at least we made it through without losing our integrity!

chris

by chrisandyasemin on 09/07/2008 08:31:32 PM EST

[ Parent ]
Where is this Gallup Poll taken from? (none / 0)
because if it isnt taken strictly from Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Missouri, Virginia, New Hampshire or Colorado it is meaningless...

Most of the other states are pretty much in place at this time - why are you guys so concerned over the national polls if they are not reflecting the battleground states - this election will be won in the above mentioned states - period.

:)

by bobo1 on 09/07/2008 03:15:14 PM EST

That true, but.... (none / 0)

These national tracking polls are the only post-RNC data we have.  There haven't been any State level polls released in the last few days.  Most of the publically available polling data for individual states was done before the Democratic convention. 

Also, state-level polls are highly correlated with the national polling numbers.  So knowing the national numbers give us information about what might be going on at the state level. 

by publius on 09/07/2008 08:53:43 PM EST

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Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 | 8 comments (8 topical, 0 hidden)
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