Obama is leading

Email Print posted by PresidentTyler 09/07/2008 05:59:59 PM EST

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I have no idea what you guys are smoking.

Yahoo! shows Obama leading McCain, thrashing him, infact in projected markets:

Projected Electoral Votes:

Obama 311  57.5%

McCain 227 43%
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Obama is leading | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)
Damn I Hope So (none / 0)
The rethuglicans have more up their sleeve for Ohio I am afraid. Truthout has good article about Caging .... again.

by psyche2 on 09/07/2008 06:13:44 PM EST

Its a different Ohio (none / 0)

Without the old crooked Sec of State (Blackwell) and criminal Governor.

In fact, most swing states (11 of 14) have Dem Govs and SoS.  This will make it much more difficult for the Republic Party to cheat again.

by ProfRich on 09/07/2008 11:04:57 PM EST

[ Parent ]
You're almost onto something here. (none / 0)
You've been rather quiet lately. You get that way whenever you start getting nervous.

If 2008 is a close election, Democrats are holding some important trump cards.

There is an arcane tiebreaker system that was developed after the 1876 election to deal with close elections like the 2000 race.

If you'll remember from 2000, the state legislature offers up the list of electors. Congress can accept or reject these electors.

Here is the important takeaway: It is possible for Democrats to muscle away the election if it is close.

Let's say that McCain wins the election by 274-264 in electoral vote count, and he wins Iowa and New Mexico by close margins. It is possible for Tom Vilsac and Bill Richardson and their Democrat controlled legislatures to force recount after recount after recount until Obama "wins" in both states

Then the new Democrat controlled Congress would accept the electors provided by the Democrat controlled state legislatures. I don't think there is anything the Supreme Court could do but stand by and watch the theft of the election. There is nothing the American people could do.

Bookmark this post. If the election is close, I guarantee you that Democrats will steal the election with the entire World watching. 

by KenTX on 09/08/2008 02:20:17 AM EST

[ Parent ]
then will we be even steven? (none / 0)
no? how about after we put bush behind bars?

by hazmat on 09/08/2008 02:23:38 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Roundheads versus Cavaliers (none / 0)
I invite you guys to do your damndest.

All out civil war would allow us to legally express our full passion.

by KenTX on 09/08/2008 02:37:09 AM EST

[ Parent ]
Safe to say (none / 0)
its gotta be something in between the two (Gallup and Yahoo) because the two polls cover two different demographics. I don't have a landline phone and I bet a lot of younger voters don't ever get polled by phone. Whereas the Yahoo poll doesn't detect the older (McCain) voters who don't use the internet. So its probably more like Obama 53, McCain 47-ish.

by chrisandyasemin on 09/07/2008 07:41:11 PM EST

Wanna bet? (none / 0)

The markets still have Obama up, but he has taken a 3 to 4 percentage point drop in the last couple of days.  He was sitting at an average of about 60% chance to win.  That has now dropped below 57%. 

The 311 to 227 scenario is basically the landslide / best case scenario for Obama.  They have him winning OH, VA, NV, CO, and NH.  That is spotting Obama just about every state that is close right now with the exception of FL.  Here is my favorite scenario:

Electoral Tie

269 to 269.  In that case the President would be choosen by the House of Representatives.  It will be closer than you think because each state delegation gets only one vote.  That means California with 53 Representatives would get just 1 vote.  However, it looks like Democrats would win that vote by 1 or 2 states.  

So it is theorhetically possible for Obama to lose the popular vote, tie in the electoral college and still win the Presidency!   You can just see imagine the hissy fit the Republicans will throw if this occurs. 

by publius on 09/07/2008 09:18:55 PM EST

YES (none / 0)
So it is theorhetically possible for Obama to lose the popular vote, tie in the electoral college and still win the Presidency!   You can just see imagine the hissy fit the Republicans will throw if this occurs.

Oh GOD, PLEASE let this happen!  That would be so, so delicious.  The Republican tears would be the sweetest thing we've ever tasted.

by jarett on 09/08/2008 12:12:36 AM EST

[ Parent ]
the tears of a 100+ electoral win would be better (none / 0)

those would be the tears of people who realize they are truly obsolete...

 

ahhhhh, delicious.

Palin in 2012? Bitch, please! No, really, please run in 2012, bitch. ;)

by richardshort2001 on 09/08/2008 12:19:21 AM EST

[ Parent ]
By the way dipshit, (none / 0)
the state polls to which you refer were take pre-convention. They are old news and totally obsolete.

If Obama and McCain are tied in the national polls then it means that Obama is mathematically screwed.

Obama will win a HUGE majority of votes in big states like CA, NY, IL. In a race that is tied nationally, it means that Obama will blow his popular vote wad in just a few big states, and he will lose the close elections in the battleground states. Thus, the national polls are important and timely, since they are tracked daily.

Let's say that Obama and McCain both win 63 million votes on Election Day. Let's say that Obama takes 70% of the popular vote in CA, NY, IL. Then he will lose, because he only earned 107 electoral votes for all those millions of votes in the three states. It means he lost in all the battleground states.

Therefore, if the national polls are tied on the day before the election, John McCain will win. You should have learned this lesson in 2000 and 2004.

by KenTX on 09/08/2008 02:32:38 AM EST

Obama is leading | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 hidden)
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